President Donald Trump recently dismissed reports of a rift with his top military adviser, claiming that Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, believes a war with Iran would be "easily won".

 

Trump Says Top General Predicts Easy Victory Over Iran; He Says Otherwise in Private

President Donald Trump recently dismissed reports of a rift with his top military adviser, claiming that Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, believes a war with Iran would be "easily won". However, multiple reports indicate that the general has privately expressed far more cautious assessments.

 

Public Claims vs. Private Warnings

Trump's Public Stance: On Truth Social, Trump called reports of disagreement "100 percent incorrect," stating that while the general prefers to avoid war, he believes any military action against Iran would be "easily won". Trump referred to Caine as "Razin" (a nickname) and highlighted his role in the "Midnight Hammer" strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025.

Private Assessments: According to The New York Times and other sources, Gen. Caine has privately warned in White House Situation Room meetings that a campaign against Iran would be significantly more complex than recent operations in Venezuela.

Specific Risks Cited:

High Casualties: Caine reportedly warned of a high risk of American and allied casualties.

Resource Depletion: He raised concerns about strained air defenses and a lack of critical munitions.

Prolonged Conflict: Military leadership cautioned that a strike could escalate into a drawn-out regional engagement requiring additional U.S. resources.

Current Context

These tensions emerge as the U.S. and Iran prepare for "last-ditch" negotiations in Geneva on February 26, 2026, aimed at avoiding further military conflict. Trump has set what appears to be a roughly 10-day deadline for Iran to reach a "meaningful" deal or face "bad things". Despite the military's caution, the U.S. has significantly reinforced its presence in the region, including parking at least 60 attack aircraft at a base in Jordan.