Romania’s
far-right, pro-Russian lurch spells big trouble for EU and NATO
The victory
of ultranationalist Călin Georgescu is sparking fear that Romania could slide
into the growing pro-Moscow camp.
November 26,
2024 4:00 am CET
By Nicholas
Vinocur
BRUSSELS —
Georgia. Moldova. Now Romania?
Alarm bells
are ringing in Brussels after a far-right, pro-Russia candidate came out of
nowhere to win the first round of Romania’s presidential election on Sunday.
The shock
victory of ultranationalist Călin Georgescu is triggering fears that Moscow may
be trying to draw NATO and EU member Romania — a Central and Eastern European
heavyweight of 19 million people — into its camp following contested elections
in Moldova and Georgia.
Reformist
Elena Lasconi, who will face him in the runoff on Dec. 8, is directly warning
that Romanians must now rally together to stop the country falling back under
the thrall of Russia, which occupied it after World War II. She urged a crowd
in Bucharest not to let frustration with the current establishment “become a
vulnerability exploited by Russia.”
Sunday’s
first round was a shock because Romania has been viewed as a reliable EU member
and NATO ally — in sharp contrast to smaller countries such as Hungary,
Slovakia and Bulgaria that have major problems over rule of law and pro-Russian
leanings. If Bucharest were also to veer toward a more anti-EU, pro-Russian
path, it would seriously undermine the EU’s ability to function, making it hard
to build consensus among the member countries.
Georgescu,
who doesn’t belong to a political party and has some 3.8 million likes on
TikTok, in many ways fits the mold of the 2024 radical right-wing populist: He
speaks plainly, shuns Western orthodoxy, is loathed by mainstream media, and is
an EU- and NATO-skeptic.
“The result
of this silent yet extremist, pro-Russian candidate is part of Russia’s hybrid
war against European democracy,” said Siegfried Mureșan, a conservative
Romanian lawmaker in the European Parliament.
Indeed, the
surprise result in Romania coincides with broader attempts by Russia to bring
countries inside the European Union or in its neighborhood into the pro-Moscow
camp.
Election
observers have warned of efforts to influence the outcomes of recent elections
in Moldova and Georgia. Meanwhile the leaders of Hungary and Slovakia, both in
the EU, already espouse pro-Russian views and they could soon be joined by
Czechia, if former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš wins parliamentary elections due
next year.
“If you
follow what the Russians do in this region, you know that Romania is super
important for them,” said Milan Nič, an analyst at the German Council on
Foreign Relations. “Their plan is to cut Romania off from the Black Sea … it is
the usual Russian playbook.”
Until now,
Romania, which borders Ukraine on the eastern edge of the bloc, has played a
supportive role in the West’s backing for Kyiv. The conflict has, for example,
raised the strategic importance of the Mihail Kogălniceanu air base on the
Black Sea.
But all that
could be turned on its head if Georgescu wins.
Reformist
Elena Lasconi, who will face Călin Georgescu in the runoff on Dec. 8, is
directly warning that Romanians must now rally together to stop the country
falling back under the thrall of Russia. |
Concerns
about possible yet unproven interference in Romania are driven by the fact that
Georgescu surged to victory with 22.94 percent of the vote despite no party
backing and polls completely missing his popularity.
“He is the
product of the vacuum [in Romanian politics] and likely Russian money,” added
Nič. “If you can spend so much money on TikTok all of a sudden, it raises
questions.”
The
ultranationalist candidate beat the liberal reformist candidate Lasconi, who
came in second place with 19.8 percent of votes.
“Wakeup
call”
Mureșan, a
high-profile figure in the conservative European People’s Party, drew a link
between Romania and Moldova, where pro-EU President Maia Sandu has repeatedly
warned about major Russian efforts to sway elections in her country toward
pro-Moscow candidates.
“Three weeks
ago, Moldova rejected such influence and chose a pro-European president. Now
Romanians must do the same,” added Mureșan, who belongs to Romania’s National
Liberal Party (PNL). His party’s candidate came in fifth place with 8.79
percent support.
Now, the
fear in Brussels is that Georgescu could prevail in the runoff round on Dec. 8,
adding Romania to a growing list of countries whose leaders are critical of the
EU and NATO and friendly toward Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Both
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico
have slammed Western efforts to help Ukraine against Russia’s war of
aggression. Georgescu has criticized the fact that the U.S. has an anti-missile
shield based in Romania and described Putin as a “man who loved his country.”
“It’s a
wakeup call — one of many,” added Nič.
Thanasis
Bakolas, EPP secretary general, warned that Georgescu’s performance was
evidence of rising “extremism” throughout the EU. “This struggle against
populism, against extremism — it’s never-ending,” he said. “The fight needs to
go on.”
The EPP, the
EU’s largest political group, had a responsibility to “act as the guarantor not
only against extremes but also in support of a large and viable centrist
coalition.”
Not everyone
is overly worried that Georgescu will become Romania’s next leader. Traian
Băsescu, president of Romania from 2004 to 2014, said he didn’t believe that
Georgescu would prevail in the second round and that Romanians by and large
were still “very positive” toward the EU and NATO.
But, he
warned, Romanian voters were “very angry” that corruption had returned to their
country and that the justice system was once again “under political control.”
This could
lead to the defeat of the country’s ruling parties in the forthcoming
parliamentary elections, he said.
“What the
two parties [in the governing coalition] have done in the last two years is a
disaster,” he said, referring to the Social Democratic Party and the National
Liberal Party. “I suspect they will lose power.”
After his
win on Sunday, Georgescu won the endorsement of hard-right politician George
Simion. If he got all of Simion’s votes in the second round, Georgescu would
have 36.82 percent — just below the combined results of liberal reformist
Lasconi and center-left Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who won 19.18 and 19.15
percent respectively.
Much will
boil down to whether some supporters of the traditional mainstream will switch
to this week’s shock victor.
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