Without
the EU, the joke is on us if Trump gets his tariffs
William
Keegan
Stronger
ties with the single market is the only way to stop the president-elect from
having the last laugh
Sun 24 Nov
2024 07.00 GMT
‘As
democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more
closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain
folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House
will be occupied by a downright fool and complete narcissistic moron.”
Those were
the words of the great American journalist HL Mencken (in the Baltimore Evening
Sun, 26 July 1920). The impending arrival back at the White House surely
fulfils his prophecy.
Last time
Trump arrived in office, he was relatively unprepared. Indeed, there are those
who say he did not expect to win. Then he was hampered by a democratic system
of checks and balances, and an admirable government establishment who often
kept him in his place. This time he is well prepared to cause domestic and
international chaos, as his bizarre collection of initial appointments
demonstrates.
On the
economic front he is obsessed by what he regards as the need to impose tariffs,
theoretically to protect US manufacturing and improve the balance of trade. For
Trump, “tariffs” is “a beautiful word”, more beautiful than “love”. They are
“the greatest thing ever invented”.
However, it
appears that a number of US citizens have swiftly woken up to the inflationary
implications of tariffs, with some voters who have found they have been taken
for a ride asking on social media whether it is possible to change their vote …
I have read
quite enough post-presidential election analysis, but, for me at least, the
most convincing conclusion is not that Trump won but that the Democrats lost.
The idea of
forging a trade deal with the US is preposterous – and formidably
disadvantageous
One’s mind
goes back to the 2016 referendum on UK membership of the European Union, when
there was no doubt that the Remainers were ineffectual and, unlike Harold
Wilson in the 1975 referendum, Labour had a leader in Jeremy Corbyn who, to say
the least, hardly fought the good fight and gave many people the impression he
was a Leaver anyway.
There has
been much in the public prints about whether Labour now should try to come to a
trade deal with the US. The very idea is preposterous. Experts know that Trump
would insist on terms that would be formidably disadvantageous to the UK. But
if we were part of a European Union trade negotiating team, we should be in a
far stronger position.
Talking of
which, I welcome the recent intervention by Andrew Bailey, the governor of the
Bank of England. He has been criticised by the Tory right wing and their useful
idiots in the rightwing press for daring to point to the damaging consequences
of Brexit and saying we need closer relations with the EU.
He has
diplomatically said he takes “no position on Brexit” and that the people have
voted, implying that we have to make the best of it. But he is hardly being
controversial in pointing out the consequences.
His
immediate predecessor, Mark Carney, had no doubt about the disastrous course
the UK had embarked upon. But Carney’s immediate predecessor, my old friend
Mervyn, now Lord, King was, and still is, a Brexiter – for reasons best known
to himself.
I think
Bailey is being too diplomatic in accepting the 2016 vote. Most surveys now
find that a majority of the electorate regard Brexit as a serious mistake and
would like to rejoin the EU. True, there are serious leadership problems in
Germany and France, and the EU has many economic problems, but given what is
happening on the other side of the Atlantic, and the Ukraine war, Europe needs
desperately to hang together, and we are European!
The referendum was more than eight years ago. We have
elections every four or five years, and the whole point is that people are
allowed to change their minds. Moreover, some voters are no longer with us, and
others have arrived on the electoral register. I have no doubt that if Keir
Starmer and my (almost) friend Rachel Reeves were to rise to the occasion and
change their minds about membership of the customs union and single market
they, and we, would not regret it.
The fact is
that the election of Trump and his obsession with embarking on trade wars is
bad news for the world economy, which, oddly enough, we are an important part
of.
I cannot
resist concluding with a remark I recently heard from an American visitor to
London who told me: “What you English don’t understand is that Donald Trump is
a comedian.”
He could
have fooled me. One cannot help being reminded of that great Bob Monkhouse
remark: “They all laughed when I said I wanted to be a comedian. They’re not
laughing now.”
The terrible
thing is that Trump is having the last laugh, and the rest of us can’t help
being apprehensive.
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