Tory MPs mull over their fate after Rishi Sunak’s
election call
Gloom, resignation, but also a show of fighting spirit
as PM’s troops weigh up the odds on re-election
Pippa
Crerar Political editor
Fri 24 May
2024 07.00 CEST
In the
frenzied hours shortly after Rishi Sunak made his surprise election
announcement on Wednesday, despairing Tory MPs could be spotted wandering
around Westminster contemplating their fate.
One
government minister was seen thrusting his official red folder towards his
opposition number, whom he had happened to bump into. “You might as well have
this now,” he said.
In the
tearooms and bars of parliament in London there was a palpable sense of
resignation. One of the 70 Tory MPs who is standing down hugged a Labour
colleague. “Good luck. This is all yours,” they said, casting their arm around
the room.
Sunak’s
surprise election call, when the Conservatives are 20 points behind, the
biggest gap for an incumbent party since polling began, has left many of his
own MPs shocked, fearful and, in some cases, angry.
They had
assumed the prime minister would opt for an autumn poll, giving time for the
economic recovery to filter through to the public, the deportation flights to
Rwanda to take off, and Labour to be subject to the white glare of scrutiny.
The plan to
have the election in July had been a tightly guarded secret, with Sunak
believed to have begun seriously weighing up the decision a month ago. Tory
insiders say that he finally made his mind up after the local elections.
But the
decision also split his advisers, with Isaac Levido, the election strategist
who helped Boris Johnson deliver his massive 80-seat majority, recommending
waiting until the autumn, a time, when they hoped, the public would feel better
off.
Others, led
by the deputy prime minister, Oliver Dowden, believed the prime minister could
not afford to wait. They were already conscious that the economic recovery was
not happening as quickly as they had expected, and that when inflation did fall
and interest rates were cut the government would be unlikely to get the credit.
Sunak was
also understood to be concerned that he would appear to be clinging on to power
and wanted to be able to call the election on his own terms.
His closest
aides agreed, fearful that things would only get worse by the autumn, an irony
not lost on some senior Tories as they watched the prime minister’s
rain-drenched speech being drowned out by the sound of the New Labour anthem,
D:Ream’s Things Can Only Get Better.
One Tory
backbencher, asked after the announcement if the July election was a good idea,
replied: “It’s a disaster. I can’t understand it.” Another said simply: “No.”
Not all
Tory MPs were so defeatist. Even among those who thought the summer election
was a mistake, there were plenty determined to fight on, doing everything they
might locally to encourage voters to back them, even if the national picture
looked bleak.
One veteran
MP in a marginal seat said: “Of course I’m going to fight it, I don’t believe
in just giving up like the prime minister has obviously decided to.”
Another MP
whose seat is on a knife-edge was prepared to embrace the call. “I think there
are colleagues who are more bound to lose than me, who perhaps feel it is a
little indelicate,” the MP said, hinting that Sunak had thought little about
the employment and financial prospects for his cast-out troops.
Others were
more upbeat. One even welcomed the move, saying Sunak “might as well go for
broke”, adding: “It looks bold, catches Labour off guard, and flights to Rwanda
might happen during the campaign. The timing matters less than the actual
fight, and there’s a small advantage in going for it.” Sunak has subsequently
admitted that no flights will take off before the election.
Another
suggested it was a “perfectly respectable aim” for the prime minister to try to
minimise losses and deprive Labour of a big majority, although laughed when it
was suggested the Tories could still pull it back.
The
combination of seats previously regarded as safe now looking marginal, and the
fall in ground troops willing to knock on doors, had even the most optimistic
MPs worried.
One former
minister warned that the party would struggle to encourage disillusioned
activists, many of whom will have lost their council seats in the last two
local elections, to turn out.
While some
MPs have cancelled holidays to prepare for the election, more than one admitted
they were sticking to their plans, although would not be widely advertising
their trip.
Steve
Baker, who is likely to lose his High Wycombe seat, said he had decided not to
cancel any plans for school half-term. “I can tell you, I am going to keep to
my plans.”
Some
frustration towards the prime minister was already evident before he set the
date, with Tory whips suggesting they thought the number of letters being sent
in had been “getting close” to the threshold needed to trigger a confidence
vote. It was unclear whether that was a factor in Sunak’s decision.
Either way,
time ran out for the rebels, with one Tory backbencher saying: “It’s too late.
We could have a leadership contest, but that would mean nothing. The king has
already consented to an election.”
The gloomy
response to the Tory election announcement was reflected by the location of the
party’s first campaign rally, on Wednesday night – a back room on an upper
floor of the ExCeL centre, east London.
About 100
activists who answered a call-out from their party chairs navigated the
torrential rain to form a placard-waving backdrop, along with most of the
cabinet and the prime minister’s wife. Sunak arrived on stage at about 8pm,
still apparently wearing the rain-soaked trousers he had on while speaking
outside Downing Street.
But among
the fixed grins of the cabinet, in some cases looking specifically designed for
the cameras, there were some who were unable to hide their misery.
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