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Giorgia Meloni and Ursula von der Leyen, the
double act that is steering the EU ever rightwards
Simon
Tisdall
As elections loom across the continent, Italy’s prime
minister and the commission’s president are in a dubious alliance
Sat 4 May
2024 16.00 CEST
It’s rare
that an Italian prime minister tops the table in Europe. But with Germany’s
Olaf Scholz and France’s Emmanuel Macron facing red cards at home, Spain’s
Pedro Sánchez briefly stretchered off, and relegated Rishi Sunak sulking on the
bench like Liverpool’s Mo Salah, Giorgia Meloni – post-fascist poster girl
turned star centre-forward of the new right – is shooting at an open goal.
It’s
Meloni’s moment. In the words of one conservative commentator, she has become
“Europe’s essential leader”. And her influence is set to expand next month when
up to 450 million eligible voters in 27 countries pick a new EU parliament.
Hard-right and far-right nationalist-populist parties, including Meloni’s
Brothers of Italy, are poised for sweeping gains at the expense of the left and
the greens.
Meloni has
surprised opponents since promotion to prime minister in 2022. Rather than
disrupt or desert the EU, she seems keen to run it. Most telling is her
co-opting of Ursula von der Leyen, the less than stellar European Commission
president who covets an undeserved second five-year term. Von der Leyen has
taken to following Meloni around, often visiting Italy to curry favour.
That’s
because Meloni’s support could be decisive when national leaders (not voters)
pick the next commission chief. It’s also because Meloni has become pivotal in
shaping Europe’s agenda – notably on migration and climate – and managing
trouble-makers such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. Her growing influence is helping
to move the EU’s centre of gravity ever rightwards.
Speaking at
last week’s candidates’ debate, von der Leyen castigated parliament’s far-right
Identity and Democracy group, which includes Germany’s Alternative für
Deutschland (AfD), France’s National Rally (RN) (formerly the National Front)
and Italy’s League. Marine Le Pen, National Rally’s leader, has accused Meloni
and von der Leyen of conspiring to secure the latter’s reappointment.
Bad blood
was evident as the commission president claimed the far-right parties were
acting as “proxies” for Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, by parroting his “lies
and propaganda”. Yet she opened the door to future cooperation with a rival
hard-right grouping that includes Meloni’s Brothers.
The
phenomenon of two empowered women directing European affairs (it used to be
only one, Angela Merkel) was on display last year when Meloni helped von der
Leyen cut a controversial migration deal with Tunisia. She was on hand again in
March when the EU gave €7.4bn (£6.3bn) to Egypt’s abusive dictator, Abdel Fatah
al-Sisi, partly to curb migrant flows. Meloni’s idea, adopted by von der Leyen,
is to keep migrants far away from Europe’s borders – a radical break with
previous EU asylum and refugee settlement policies.
Meloni has
also successfully lobbied in Brussels to water down the EU’s green deal. Like
migration, climate is a bogey issue across the denialist right. Unsurprisingly,
given recent Tory backsliding, Meloni received a warm welcome from Sunak in
Downing Street last year.
Europe’s
political establishment looks set for a right kicking next month. In France, Le
Pen’s RN, spearheaded by Jordan Bardella, a handsome smooth-talker like Macron,
only younger, has a huge lead. Germany’s AfD, bucking scandal, is on a roll –
and stumbling Scholz and his Social Democrats are hopelessly off the pace. If
he were a horse, not a chancellor, Scholz would be humanely put to sleep.
The
combination of ambitious, slippery Meloni and a dependent, needy von der Leyen
is potentially dangerous for Europe
Little
wonder that von der Leyen is tacking to the right. The German conservative has
the support, albeit lukewarm, of parliament’s dominant, centre-right European
People’s party. Critics accuse her of serious missteps over the pandemic, the
Gaza war, alleged cronyism, – and of having a high-handed manner. While tipped
to win in a thin field, she needs the impetus that Meloni, cresting a rightwing
wave, can provide.
Meloni
herself comes with considerable baggage, not least her once fierce
euroscepticism. In office, she has sought constitutional changes to boost her
executive powers and led assaults on migrant rescue organisations, LGBTQ+
groups and media freedom. The Brothers adore Donald Trump.
Add to that
Italy’s relative economic weakness and notorious political instability, and
Meloni is plainly punching above her weight. Observers suggest she has been
“normalised” within Europe’s mainstream by distancing herself from Moscow and
supporting Nato and EU aid for Ukraine. She has reduced Italy’s dealings with
China, too – and helped mend fences with Orbán.
Yet
questions persist over Meloni’s direction of travel – and trustworthiness. In
one scenario, she becomes a unifying standard-bearer of the right, embracing
parties across the spectrum from Germany’s staid Christian Democrats to the
Netherlands’ Geert Wilders and the crazier Finnish fringes. Yet what if Trump,
pro-Russia and anti-Europe, wins? What if Putin does? Might she shift her
ground again?
An
alternative scenario, which could boost the beleaguered social democratic and
socialist left, has Meloni definitively breaking with the ultra-nationalist,
populist far-right, principally over attitudes to the EU.
Her
relationship with von der Leyen suggests it’s already happening. That’s the
view of her conflicted deputy and League party leader, Matteo Salvini, and Le
Pen.
Speaking
via video to a Rome conference organised by Salvini in March, Le Pen asked:
“Giorgia… will you support a second von der Leyen term or not? I believe so.
And so you will contribute to worsening the policies that the people of Europe
are suffering from so much.” It was a pointed dig. But Le Pen has a problem.
After Brexit, she no longer talks about quitting the EU. As for Salvini, he’s
increasingly eclipsed by Meloni.
Potentially
beneficial rightwing schisms aside, the long-term combination of an ambitious,
slippery Meloni and a dependent, needy von der Leyen is potentially dangerous
for Europe. This opportunistic double act could drag the EU deep into an
ideological swamp while lacking practical, consensual answers to urgent
challenges.
Ursula and
Giorgia: it has a familiar ring. Like Thelma and Louise, driving off a cliff.
Simon Tisdall is the Observer’s Foreign
Affairs Commentator
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