Another week, another migration row

 

Another week, another migration row

BY ELENI COUREA

NOVEMBER 23, 2023 8:00 AM CET

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/another-week-another-migration-row/

London Playbook

By ELENI COUREA

 

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders claimed a shock victory in the Netherlands’ snap general election. His Freedom Party is on course to take 37 out of 150 seats in parliament. My colleagues have more.

 

Good Thursday morning. This is Eleni Courea.

 

DRIVING THE DAY

A SPELL OF WINTER WARMTH: Downing Street strategists will be peering cheerily over their Weetabix bowls this morning at the most positive set of front pages they’ve had in ages. The Times, Telegraph, Sun, Express and Mail splashes are all beaming about tax cuts in the autumn statement. If Chancellor Jeremy Hunt did a ring-round of editors it clearly paid off.

 

But it won’t last: Those happy headlines will shortly be wiped away by the U.K.’s latest net migration figures, which are expected to show another hefty rise that smashes through the Tories’ manifesto pledge. The stats will be published by the ONS at 9.30 a.m.

 

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Before that happens: Hunt is on the morning round banging the drum for his autumn statement. He’ll be on the Today program at 8.10 a.m and is being interviewed from North Wales, where he is visiting a manufacturer which will benefit from “full expensing” (this BBC story explains it in plain English).

 

What he’ll be less keen to talk about: Stubbornly high inflation, anaemic growth and declining living standards while Brits pay more taxes than any time since WWII (the Sun splash points this last bit out in small print — while the Mail wraps it across the whole bottom half of its front page). The FT, Independent and i lead on the ballooning tax burden.

 

As for the PM: Rishi Sunak is heading on a visit to Yorkshire this afternoon and will record a regional pool clip there. The Mail’s Jason Groves writes in his analysis that Sunak has been telling ministers the Tories’ credibility on taxes is so shot that they now need to “show, not tell.”

 

On the Labour side: Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves is touring broadcast studios and is on GMB at 7.50 a.m. The talk in Labour circles is about how the government has baked in big cuts to departmental budgets after the election for Reeves to deal with if Labour wins. The FT’s Robert Shrimsley sums it up as “the electoral equivalent of a man walking into a bar and shouting ‘the drinks are on her’ — or perhaps more honestly, ‘the drinks are on you.’”

 

Right on cue: Asked by your Playbook author at a Progressive Britain event Wednesday night whether Labour would now rule out matching Tory spending plans, Shadow Environment Secretary Steve Reed suggested it would, saying: “The party isn’t going to walk into an open trap.”

 

For more on what it all means: The Resolution Foundation will offer takes on the autumn statement with speakers including OBR Chair Richard Hughes and Treasury Committee Chair Harriett Baldwin from 9 a.m. The think tank’s Chair Torsten Bell said: “Jeremy Hunt yesterday got his pre-election giveaways in early, with an autumn statement offering tax cuts today, at the price of implausible spending cuts tomorrow.”

 

Not yet tired of the experts? The IFS is having its traditional post fiscal event briefing in the form of a webinar with Director Paul Johnson from 10.30 a.m. Johnson writes in today’s Times that the government is avoiding making some hard choices.

 

Digging into the detail: My colleague Dan Bloom has rounded up 9 things from the autumn statement’s small print. Lib Dem analysis of the figures suggests the NHS is facing a £5 billion real-terms cut next year.

 

What the public thinks: A snap focus group by JL Partners for the campaign group 38 Degrees suggests that voters are largely unconvinced. Several 2019 Conservative voters said the measures did not go far enough to help with the cost of living — one said “the damage has been done.” The results have just been published.

 

As for the politicians and pundits: Among those heaping praise on Hunt this morning are former chancellor and wannabe Telegraph chair Nadhim Zahawi who praises the cuts to business taxes … and Sunday Tel editor and mini-budget fan Allister Heath who writes Hunt is “adopting most of the core tenets of Trussonomics.”

 

Speaking of which: Truss’ former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has also written for the Telegraph and manages to avoid any mention of his own mini-budget until the 10th paragraph. His piece is mostly complimentary — before it takes a swipe by saying: “the plethora of measures reminded me of Gordon Brown, who tinkered endlessly with micro measures in his budgets.”

 

Another perspective: New Times sketch-writer Tom Peck writes in a great first piece that: “Hunt was first made chancellor by Liz Truss precisely because he is very boring and the need to bore the bond markets had become a public emergency. He delivered then, and in that sense, if not exactly in any other, he is still delivering now.”

 

ALL GO FOR MAY? The autumn statement has unleashed a fresh bout of election fever in Westminster — primarily because the National Insurance cut was unexpectedly large and kicks in unexpectedly soon.

 

To add to that: Sky’s Beth Rigby reports that Fleetwood Strategy’s Isaac Levido will take the reins of the Tory election campaign full-time from January 1. People in government are insisting we don’t read too much into that.

 

The bottom line: A decision won’t be taken now but it’s evident that a spring election is being taken seriously as an option. A senior minister tells The Spectator’s Katy Balls: “No. 10 want maximum flexibility on election timings.”

 

MIGRATION NATION

BRACE FOR IT: The febrile mood in the Conservative Party will be tested by the ONS’ net migration figures for the year ending in June 2023. In the last set of stats published in May, net migration to the end of 2022 had hit a record high of 606,000.

 

It means that: For the second week in a row, an economic win is being overtaken by bad news for the government on migration.

 

Spin and counter-spin: Reports over the past few days suggested net migration could now be 700,000. But last year the government was accused of briefing over-inflated figures in advance to make the real ones seem small by comparison. Labour officials believe today’s figure will be lower than the one six months ago.

 

The official line: Asked whether there was concern about the reaction from Tory MPs, a Downing Street official told Playbook Wednesday night:“We want to get migration down. We have a very clear story to tell on that.” The Times’ Matt Dathan reports the PM is expected to set out new proposals to curb migration next week.

 

Enter Suella: The government’s careful attempts to manage the response to this may be derailed imminently by sacked former Home Secretary Suella Braverman. An ally of hers tells Playbook that she is preparing to intervene today if the figures are “unacceptably high.”

 

Here’s a preview: Sunak rejected a proposal from Braverman last year for an annual cap on overall migration, her allies tell the Telegraph’s Charles Hymas. In the Times, Iain Martin argues the Tory record on migration provides an opening for Nigel Farage and the Reform Party.

 

Hitting back: Sources close to current Home Secretary James Cleverly tell Express.co.uk’s David Maddox that he’s planning on a new approach that’s “focused more on tough action and less on tough rhetoric.” The site reports Cleverly wants to crack down on abuses in the visa system but the measures couldn’t be ready in time for today.

 

Fun fact: Cleverly has faced a profanity-related row for every week he’s been home secretary. Labour’s claim that he called Stockton a “shithole” in the Commons splashes the Northern Echo which calls it “SHAMEFUL.” (Last week it was claims that he’d called the Rwanda deportation policy “batshit.”)

 

CALL ME DAVE

LONG WAY FROM CHIPPING NORTON: Foreign Secretary David Cameron arrives on a visit to the Middle East today where he’s expected to meet Israeli and Palestinian leaders.

 

First task: Make clear he’s not PM (foreign leaders have been struggling to keep up with the rate of change as it is). On X on Wednesday, new Argentine president Javier Milei thanked Cameron among other “world leaders” who congratulated him on Monday. (Página 12 reports that — in one of several gaffes — Milei referred to Cameron as “James Cameron” in a letter so maybe he’s just confused.)

 

Tax probe: Labour has written to the PM urging an investigation into whether Cameron’s tax affairs are being examined by HMRC — the Guardian and the Times have the story. It follows Anna Isaac’s Guardian report that HMRC is probing whether Cameron failed to disclose taxable perks such as flights while he worked for Greensill.

 

QUESTIONS ON CHINA: Members of the House of Lords are preparing to quiz the foreign secretary over newly unearthed footage which shows him downplaying China’s role in Port City Colombo and concerns about the project’s legal structure. He also brushes off a critical IMF report — read the full POLITICO story here.

 

The opposition weighs in: Shadow Asia Minister Catherine West said there are “serious questions for David Cameron to answer” and Lib Dem peer Christopher Fox said “he needs to make a clean breast of his past interests.” Cameron’s office has repeatedly insisted he did not engage with China or any Chinese company about his UAE speaking events — even though months earlier he was pictured meeting the Chinese developer’s managing director. Cameron’s office says the discussion they had did not touch on Cameron getting involved with any events.

 

Fizz with the kids: With Cameron now back in vogue, so is the One Nation caucus. Having first reinvigorated its social media presence, Playbook hears the group held a “soft re-launch” drinks event on Wednesday night for Tory staffers. The MPs present were Karen Brady, Caroline Nokes, Simon Jupp, Stephen Hammond, Jo Gideon and group Chair Damian Green.