Nancy Pelosi begins Asia trip but does not
mention Taiwan
Reports that House speaker could visit Taiwan have
riled China; analysts say she may yet do so in unofficial capacity
Helen
Davidson in Taipei
Mon 1 Aug
2022 03.37 BST
The US
House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, has begun a tour of Asia but questions remain over
whether it will include a stop in Taiwan.
In a press
release on Sunday, Pelosi said a delegation would travel to the Indo-Pacific
“to reaffirm America’s strong and unshakeable commitment to our allies and
friends in the region”.
The
delegation left Hawaii on Sunday and there will be stops in Singapore,
Malaysia, South Korea and Japan. Pelosi said they would hold “high-level
meetings” in those countries to discuss the advancement of “shared interests
and values” including peace and security. The press release did not mention
Taiwan.
Pelosi
arrived in Singapore late on Sunday night, according to flight tracking data.
She is in the city-state for a two-day visit, according to broadcaster CNA,
citing the country’s foreign ministry. The American Chamber of Commerce in
Singapore was scheduled to host a reception with her on Monday afternoon, its
website said.
The event,
which costs up to SG$130 (GBP77) to attend, is not open to the media and will
not be livestreamed.
There has
been some local speculation Pelosi would visit Taiwan at the end of her tour on
Thursday. On Monday, Taiwan’s premier Su Tseng-chang did not directly respond
when asked, but told reporters in Taipei: “We always warmly welcome visits to
our country by distinguished foreign guests.”
Pelosi was
supposed to visit Taiwan in April but the trip was postponed after she
contracted Covid-19. Recent reports suggesting Pelosi intended to visit in
August have angered Beijing and prompted threats of military countermeasures.
Some analysts have said it is one of the most dangerous moments in cross-strait
relations in decades.
China
considers Taiwan to be a breakaway province destined for reunification, and
strongly objects to all acts that appear to support Taiwan as an independent
sovereign state. In a phone call lasting more than two hours, China’s
president, Xi Jinping, warned Joe Biden over what he considers China’s
“territorial integrity”. “Those who play with fire will perish by it,” Xi said.
On Sunday,
Chinese air force spokesman Shen Jinke was quoted by state media as saying that
Beijing would “resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial
integrity”.
Shen said
at a military airshow that the air force has many types of fighter jets capable
of circling “the precious island of our motherland”, referring to Taiwan.
The US does
not have official ties with Taiwan but maintains friendly relations and is legally
obliged to provide weapons for self-defence.
Taiwan’s
government will not comment on a Pelosi visit as it balances its wish to
maintain the safety of the status quo while also growing its relations with the
US.
Taiwan’s
population has lived under the threat of China for decades, and while recent
events such as the Ukraine war have heightened concerns and prompted increased
military and civilian preparations, there has been little sign of major worries
specifically surrounding Pelosi’s visit.
Among Taiwanese
analysts and officials there is some belief that Pelosi must visit now to avoid
appearing cowed by Beijing’s strong language.
Amanda
Hsiao, a senior China analyst with the Crisis Group, a thinktank, said on
Friday that China was unlikely to directly target US military assets or risk a
military confrontation. However, she noted that China had greatly increased
military activity in recent years, including frequently sending squadrons of
warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ).
“Beijing
will have to select a response that visibly rises above the already high
baseline of activity,” Hsiao said.
On Saturday
China conducted previously unannounced live-fire exercises in the Taiwan
Strait, at the narrowest point between China and Taiwan’s main island.
Numerous US
political delegations have made unofficial visits to Taiwan in recent years,
showing support for the democratic island amid increasing pressure from China.
Pelosi would be the highest-ranked US official to go there since 1997 when the
then speaker, Newt Gingrich, visited.
Biden, who
does not control the actions of the speaker as Congress is a co-equal branch of
government, told media that the military did not think it was a good idea.
Drew
Thompson, a former US defence department official, said the lack of a Taiwan
mention in the press release did not necessarily mean the delegation would not
stop by in an unofficial capacity. On Twitter, Thompson said he believed China
would be satisfied with the exclusion of Taiwan on the formal itinerary, even
if the delegation visited.
“This is an
accommodation to Beijing’s concern but far from a capitulation. China’s
interest in keeping Taiwan off the formal agenda and listed with sovereign
states is respected,” he said.
Thompson
speculated that the most likely outcome would be increased sorties into the
ADIZ or reconnaissance flights around the island, but the firing of missiles or
crossings of the median line between China and Taiwan were now unlikely.
Additional reporting by Reuters
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