Artigo que pretende
ser realista no diagnóstico , mas denota profundo relativismo quanto
aos valores ocidentais e respectiva crise dos mesmos, juntamente a
uma crise demográfica e de liderança política. Consequentemente,
evita analisar quais vão ser a reacções da própria Europa a esta
avalanche vinda do exterior, num processo extremamente preocupante de
tradução da mesma avalanche em “ameaça” e “invasão”.
De repente, a crença
na superioridade moral da Cultura Europeia foi abalada e Merkel no
seu erro político e de antevisão/análise do momento de crise
civiliizacional e de insegurança Europeia, cometeu um colossal erro
de avaliação. As vítimas somos todos nós e “eles”. Europeus e
refugiados.
OVOODOCORVO
–----------------------------------------------------------------------
January 11, 2016
5:03 pm
Mass
migration into Europe is unstoppable
Gideon Rachman/
Financial Times
In the 18th and 19th
centuries, Europeans populated the world. Now the world is populating
Europe. Beyond the furore about the impact of the 1m-plus refugees
who arrived in Germany in 2015 lie big demographic trends. The
current migration crisis is driven by wars in the Middle East. But
there are also larger forces at play that will ensure immigration
into Europe remains a vexed issue long after the war in Syria is
over.
Europe is a wealthy,
ageing continent whose population is stagnant. By contrast the
populations of Africa, the Middle East and South Asia are younger,
poorer and rising fast. At the height of the imperial age, in 1900,
European countries represented about 25 per cent of the world’s
population.
Today, the EU’s
roughly 500m people account for about 7 per cent of the world’s
population. By contrast, there are now more than 1bn people in Africa
and, according to the UN, there will be almost 2.5bn by 2050.
The population of
Egypt has doubled since 1975 to more than 80m today. Nigeria’s
population in 1960 was 50m. It is now more than 180m and likely to be
more than 400m by 2050.
The migration of
Africans, Arabs and Asians to Europe represents the reversal of a
historic trend. In the colonial era Europe practised a sort of
demographic imperialism, with white Europeans emigrating to the four
corners of the world. In North America and Australasia, indigenous
populations were subdued and often killed — and whole continents
were turned into offshoots of Europe. European countries also
established colonies all over the world and settled them with
immigrants, while at the same time several millions were forcibly
migrated from Africa to the New World as slaves.
When Europeans were
populating the world, they often did so through “chain migration”.
A family member would settle in a new country like Argentina or the
US; news and money would be sent home and, before long, others would
follow.
Now the chains go in
the other direction: from Syria to Germany, from Morocco to the
Netherlands, from Pakistan to Britain. But these days it is not a
question of a letter home followed by a long sea voyage. In the era
of Facebook and the smartphone, Europe feels close even if you are in
Karachi or Lagos.
Countries such as
Britain, France and the Netherlands have become much more multiracial
in the past 40 years. Governments that promise to restrict
immigration, such as the current British administration, have found
it very hard to deliver on their promises.
The EU position is
that, while refugees can apply for asylum in Europe, illegal
“economic migrants” must return home. But this policy is unlikely
to stem the population flows for several reasons.
First, the number of
countries that are afflicted by war or state failure may actually
increase; worries about the stability of Algeria are rising, for
example.
Second, most of
those who are deemed “economic migrants” never actually leave
Europe. In Germany only about 30 per cent of rejected asylum seekers
leave the country voluntarily or are deported.
Third, once large
immigrant populations are established, the right of “family
reunion” will ensure a continued flow. So Europe is likely to
remain an attractive and attainable destination for poor and
ambitious people all over the world.
One possible
reaction for Europe is to accept that migration from the rest of the
world is inevitable — and embrace it wholeheartedly. Europe’s
debt-ridden economies need an injection of youth and dynamism. Who
will staff their old-age homes and building sites if not immigrants
from the rest of the world?
The EU is struggling
to respond to a surge of desperate migrants that has arrived on its
shores and resulted in thousands of deaths in 2015
But even those
Europeans who make the case for immigration tend to argue that, of
course, newcomers to the continent must all accept “European
values”. That may be unrealistic, partly because many of these
values are of relatively recent vintage.
In recent decades,
feminism has made great strides in Europe and attitudes to gay rights
have been transformed. Many immigrants from the Middle East and
Africa bring much more conservative and sexist attitudes with them.
It will take more than a few civics classes to change that.
Europeans are
profoundly confused about how to respond to these new challenges. In
the age of imperialism, they justified settling foreign lands with
the confident belief that they were bringing the benefits of
civilisation to more backward parts of the world.
But post-imperial,
post-Holocaust Europe is much more wary of asserting the superiority
of its culture. It has replaced a belief in its civilising mission
and the Bible with an emphasis on universal values, individual rights
and international treaties.
The big question in
the coming decades is how Europe’s faith in universal liberal
values will withstand the impact of mass immigration. A battle
between nativists and liberals is beginning to shape politics.
In the long run I
expect the nativists to lose, not because their demands are unpopular
but because they are unenforceable. It may be possible for island
nations surrounded by the Pacific Ocean, such as Japan or Australia,
to maintain strict controls on immigration. It will be all but
impossible for an EU that is part of a Eurasian landmass and is
separated from Africa only by narrow stretches of the Mediterranean.
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