U.S.-Backed Cease-Fire Offer Poses Dilemma for Putin

 

U.S.-Backed Cease-Fire Offer Poses Dilemma for Putin

 

Russia’s leader recently rejected the idea of an interim truce in Ukraine. But he wants to maintain his relationship with President Trump.

 

Anton Troianovski

By Anton Troianovski

Reporting from Berlin

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/12/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-cease-fire.html

March 12, 2025, 8:01 a.m. ET

 

As recently as January, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia emphatically rejected the idea of a temporary cease-fire in Ukraine.

 

But after a month in which President Trump turned American foreign policy on its head and Russian forces made progress in a key battle, the Kremlin now appears keen at least to entertain the 30-day cease-fire proposal made by Ukraine and the United States on Tuesday.

 

Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, told reporters on Wednesday that the Kremlin was “carefully studying” the outcome of Tuesday’s talks between the United States and Ukraine, and their call for a monthlong cease-fire.

 

He said he expected the United States to inform Russia in the coming days of “the details of the negotiations that took place and the understandings that were reached.” He raised the possibility of another phone call between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, signaling that the Kremlin saw the cease-fire proposal as just a part of a broader flurry of diplomacy.

 

Mr. Putin has seen a dizzying reversal in his geopolitical fortunes over the last month as Mr. Trump realigned American foreign policy in Russia’s favor, antagonized U.S. allies and excoriated President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine at the White House.

 

But the emergence of a joint cease-fire proposal from the United States and Ukraine complicates things for Mr. Putin. It deepens the tension between his desires for a far-reaching victory in Ukraine and for close ties with Mr. Trump.

 

While Mr. Trump says he wants to end the war as soon as possible, Mr. Putin has signaled he will not stop fighting until he extracts major concessions from the West and from Kyiv, including a pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO and that the alliance will reduce its presence in Central and Eastern Europe.

 

On Jan. 20, when he congratulated Mr. Trump on his inauguration, Mr. Putin made clear that the goal of any Ukraine talks must “not be a short cease-fire, not some kind of respite.” Russia, he said, sought “a long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all people, all nations who live in this region.”

 

Analysts say Mr. Putin’s opposition to a temporary cease-fire stemmed from the simple calculation that with Russian forces gaining on the battlefield, Moscow would only give up its leverage by stopping the fighting without winning concessions.

 

But a Feb. 12 phone call between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, and the White House’s subsequent alignment with Russia at the United Nations and elsewhere, may have affected Mr. Putin’s calculus by making him more eager to stay on Mr. Trump’s good side, analysts say.

 

That sets up a delicate balancing act for the Kremlin.

 

Ilya Grashchenkov, a political analyst in Moscow, said the Kremlin could be tempted to accept a truce that would be “tactically unfavorable but strategically favorable” in order to “show that it’s a peacemaker.”

 

While Russians were not present at Tuesday’s talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration has kept up its engagement with the Kremlin. John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, spoke to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, on Tuesday, Russian news agencies reported on Wednesday.

 

Steve Witkoff, the envoy for Mr. Trump who met with Mr. Putin for several hours last month, plans to return to Russia in the coming days, according to two people familiar with the matter, who requested anonymity to discuss internal plans. On Tuesday afternoon, Mr. Trump told reporters that he thought he would speak with Mr. Putin this week and that he hoped a lasting cease-fire would be negotiated in the coming days.

 

“It certainly is not impossible that the Russians would accept this,” Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst at the RAND Corporation, said of the 30-day offer. “Not because they want an unconditional, temporary cease-fire, but because they now have a stake in relations with Washington.”

 

In another sign of Moscow’s charm offensive directed at the Trump camp, Russia’s foreign ministry released a 90-minute interview on Wednesday that the foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, gave to three American video bloggers, including the former Fox News personality Andrew Napolitano.

 

Mr. Lavrov, speaking English, praised the Trump administration for reversing the Democrats’ “departure from Christian values” and said Russia was ready for the “normal relations” that the United States was offering.

 

Mr. Putin’s calculus could also be affected by Russia’s progress in recent days in pushing Ukrainian troops out of Kursk, the Russian border region where Ukraine occupied several hundred square miles of territory in a surprise incursion last August.

 

Mr. Zelensky had said he planned to use that land as a bargaining chip in future talks, but the Kremlin signaled that it would refuse to negotiate so long as Ukraine held the territory.

 

With the Kursk region mostly back in Russian hands, Mr. Putin no longer risks losing face by agreeing to a cease-fire that would leave Ukraine in control of a swath of Russian territory, said Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst in Moscow.

 

Nataliya Vasilyeva and Ivan Nechepurenko contributed reporting.

 

Anton Troianovski is the Moscow bureau chief for The Times. He writes about Russia, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia. More about Anton Troianovski