Ursula
von der Leyen has a Donald Trump problem
European
Commission president’s close relationship with Joe Biden could be a liability.
By BARBARA
MOENS
in Brussels
Photo-illustration
by Gemma Mohajer for POLITICO
December 10,
2024 4:00 am CET
In the
best-case scenario, Ursula von der Leyen could enter the history books as the
European Commission president who freed Europe from its military dependence on
the United States and restarted the continent’s economic engine.
In the
worst-case scenario, it’s the beginning of the end.
Either way,
the return of Donald Trump to the White House is set to cause turbulence during
von der Leyen’s term, as she struggles to support Ukraine, uphold international
climate targets and get the continent growing again in the face of a potential
global trade war.
Over the
past five years, the head of the EU’s executive branch has emerged as a major
political player, coordinating the bloc’s response to the coronavirus and
Russia’s all-out assault on Ukraine.
In
particular, when it comes to the war in Ukraine, she owes a great deal of her
success to her close cooperation with U.S. President Joe Biden and his team.
The
partnership started months before Russian tanks rolled on Ukraine, when Biden
warned von der Leyen about a possible invasion during her visit to the White
House in November 2021 and the two began to coordinate on a complex package of
sanctions and export controls that would be ready to go when the invasion
began.
After the
war broke out, the cooperation continued. When Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act
caused European governments to worry their companies could be put at a
disadvantage, it was von der Leyen who worked with the White House to minimize
the impact on the European economy.
With Trump
in the White House, however, von der Leyen risks being seen as too close to the
outgoing U.S. president, according to two EU diplomats.
It’s not
just that Trump is seen as disruptive or vindictive. It’s that he spent much of
his first term taking potshots at the EU: putting tariffs on steel and
aluminum, pulling out of international treaties like the Paris climate change
agreement and the Iran nuclear deal, threatening countries that didn’t meet
their NATO spending targets, praising the United Kingdom’s decision to leave
the bloc and even declaring the EU as Washington’s “foe.”
“Trump has
never been so keen on recognizing the EU as an interlocutor,” a third EU
diplomat said dryly. (The EU diplomats spoke on the condition of anonymity to
freely discuss the delicate relationship with Washington.)
Even with
Trump not set to take office until January, the stage is already being set for
showdowns with the EU. The incoming president has vowed to end the war in
Ukraine shortly after entering the White House, presumably by cutting support
for Kyiv unless it agrees to give up territory to Russia. Trump has also said
he would encourage the Kremlin to do “whatever the hell they want” to countries
that didn’t meet their NATO spending targets.
An even more
immediate worry will be the economy. Trump has vowed to impose across-the-board
tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on Europe. He has also threatened to slap a 60
percent levy on all goods coming from China, which could cause Beijing to dump
its products on the EU market.
EU diplomats
also privately fret that Trump would threaten tariffs on countries that don’t
step up defense spending, with Germany — the already sputtering motor of the
European economy — as one of his primary targets.
Von der
Leyen will be hoping all this will force the EU to close ranks and cooperate
more closely, as it did during the coronavirus crisis and the early days of the
war in Ukraine. Pressure from Washington will leave the bloc no choice but to
bolster its defense spending, beef up its tech sector and clarify its stance on
China, difficult decisions some EU countries have been pushing for for years.
On paper,
von der Leyen is supposed to be one of Washington’s primary European
interlocutors, overseeing broad swaths of EU policy, including trade, climate,
tech and competition.
But given
her potentially rocky relationship with Trump, diplomats believe she may have
to rely on others with a better chance of having the incoming president’s ear,
such as Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni or NATO
Secretary-General Mark Rutte, whose earlier handling of Trump helped land him
the job.
Meanwhile,
the Commission president is preparing sticks and carrots for the real estate
mogul. After all, “Trump is a dealer,” the third EU diplomat said. “Above all,
he wants to negotiate.”
Von der
Leyen has already tried to sweeten the relationship by suggesting Brussels
could buy more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from America in order to avoid U.S.
tariffs on European goods. Her predecessor Jean-Claude Juncker used LNG to
engineer a highly cosmetic truce with Trump in 2018.
This time
around, however, those types of tactics might not be as successful,” said Mark
Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“I don’t
think they necessarily even worked that well last time around,” said Leonard.
“A lot of people tried to hug Trump close and to flatter his vanity and they
hoped that that would somehow bring them advantages. But whether it was Theresa
May rushing to the White House or meeting him in the Rose Garden or Macron
inviting him to Paris to take part in military parades, these things very
rarely actually translate into much influence over what Trump did from the
issues that they cared about.”
If the past
is any guide, Trump will also be seeking to divide and conquer, striking
bilateral deals with like-minded governments like Hungarian Prime Minister
Viktor Orbán’s.
“This is a
man who thought Brexit is a great idea and there should be more Brexits,” said
Anthony Gardner, a former U.S. ambassador to the EU. “He would like to see the
EU break up.”
“He will
pull the Viktor Orbán card, he will use the other cards he has,” Gardner added.
“The EU right now is in a very fragile state where those techniques
unfortunately could be successful.”
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