World’s top climate scientists expect global
heating to blast past 1.5C target
Exclusive: Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of
heating with disastrous results for humanity, poll of hundreds of scientists
finds
Damian
Carrington Environment editor
Wed 8 May
2024 11.00 CEST
Hundreds of
the world’s leading climate scientists expect global temperatures to rise to at
least 2.5C (4.5F) above preindustrial levels this century, blasting past
internationally agreed targets and causing catastrophic consequences for
humanity and the planet, an exclusive Guardian survey has revealed.
Almost 80%
of the respondents, all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), foresee at least 2.5C of global heating, while almost
half anticipate at least 3C (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed
1.5C (2.7F) limit would be met.
Many of the
scientists envisage a “semi-dystopian” future, with famines, conflicts and mass
migration, driven by heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms of an intensity
and frequency far beyond those that have already struck.
Numerous
experts said they had been left feeling hopeless, infuriated and scared by the
failure of governments to act despite the clear scientific evidence provided.
“I think we are headed for major societal disruption
within the next five years,” said Gretta Pecl, at the University of Tasmania.
“[Authorities] will be overwhelmed by extreme event after extreme event, food
production will be disrupted. I could not feel greater despair over the
future.”
But many
said the climate fight must continue, however high global temperature rose,
because every fraction of a degree avoided would reduce human suffering.
Peter Cox,
at the University of Exeter, UK, said: “Climate change will not suddenly become
dangerous at 1.5C – it already is. And it will not be ‘game over’ if we pass
2C, which we might well do.”
The
Guardian approached every contactable lead author or review editor of IPCC
reports since 2018. Almost half replied, 380 of 843. The IPCC’s reports are the
gold standard assessments of climate change, approved by all governments and
produced by experts in physical and social sciences. The results show that many
of the most knowledgeable people on the planet expect climate havoc to unfold
in the coming decades.
The climate
crisis is already causing profound damage to lives and livelihoods across the
world, with only 1.2C (2.16F) of global heating on average over the past four
years. Jesse Keenan, at Tulane University in the US, said: “This is just the
beginning: buckle up.”
Nathalie
Hilmi, at the Monaco Scientific Centre, who expects a rise of 3C, agreed: “We
cannot stay below 1.5C.”
The experts
said massive preparations to protect people from the worst of the coming
climate disasters were now critical. Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, at the State
University of Rio de Janeiro, said: “I am extremely worried about the costs in
human lives.”
The 1.5C target was chosen to prevent the worst of the
climate crisis and has been seen as an important guiding star for international
negotiations. Current climate policies mean the world is on track for about
2.7C, and the Guardian survey shows few IPCC experts expect the world to
deliver the huge action required to reduce that.
Younger
scientists were more pessimistic, with 52% of respondents under 50 expecting a
rise of at least 3C, compared with 38% of those over 50. Female scientists were
also more downbeat than male scientists, with 49% thinking global temperature
would rise at least 3C, compared with 38%. There was little difference between
scientists from different continents.
Dipak
Dasgupta, at the Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi, said: “If the
world, unbelievably wealthy as it is, stands by and does little to address the
plight of the poor, we will all lose eventually.”
The experts
were clear on why the world is failing to tackle the climate crisis. A lack of
political will was cited by almost three-quarters of the respondents, while 60%
also blamed vested corporate interests, such as the fossil fuel industry.
Many also
mentioned inequality and a failure of the rich world to help the poor, who
suffer most from climate impacts. “I expect a semi-dystopian future with
substantial pain and suffering for the people of the global south,” said a
South African scientist, who chose not to be named. “The world’s response to
date is reprehensible – we live in an age of fools.”
About a
quarter of the IPCC experts who responded thought global temperature rise would
be kept to 2C or below but even they tempered their hopes.
“I am
convinced that we have all the solutions needed for a 1.5C path and that we
will implement them in the coming 20 years,” said Henry Neufeldt, at the UN’s
Copenhagen Climate Centre. “But I fear that our actions might come too late and
we cross one or several tipping points.”
Lisa
Schipper, at University of Bonn in Germany, said: “My only source of hope is
the fact that, as an educator, I can see the next generation being so smart and
understanding the politics.”
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