Michel to head for Budapest seeking deal with
Orbán
BY NICHOLAS
VINOCUR
NOVEMBER
24, 2023 7:00 AM CET
Brussels
Playbook
By NICHOLAS
VINOCUR
with ZOYA
SHEFTALOVICH
ISRAEL-HAMAS
TRUCE STARTS: A four-day pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas began this
morning, with a group of 13 hostages held by the militant group due to be freed
later this afternoon. Aid is also prepped to flow to Gaza — the World Food
Program says it has around 1,300 tons of food supplies ready to go. The BBC has
a live blog here.
Greetings
from Switzerland, where your Playbook author traveled to escape the Sturm und
Drang of EU politics. No such luck, though — our audience at the Lucerne
Dialogue, where Suzanne Lynch and I were hosting a talk, was laser-focused on
European affairs: Geert Wilders’ victory, the far right’s prospects across the
Union and Swiss-EU relations.
HUNGARY-BRUSSELS
STANDOFF
MICHEL
SEEKS DEAL WITH ORBÁN AHEAD OF DECEMBER COUNCIL: Amid an escalating row between
Brussels and Hungary over rule-of-law concerns, European Council President
Charles Michel will travel to Budapest on Monday to try to strike a deal with
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ahead of a gathering of EU leaders next month,
Council spokesperson Ecaterina Casinge confirmed late on Thursday.
Call and
response: The trip comes days after Playbook reported that Orbán had threatened
to derail the EU’s entire policy toward Ukraine in a letter to Michel, saying
no decision on future aid or accession to the EU was possible unless leaders
hold a “strategic discussion” on their approach to Kyiv.
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Charm
offensive: According to two EU officials who spoke to POLITICO’s Gregorio Sorgi
and Barbara Moens, Michel aims to strike a deal with Orbán that would avoid an
upcoming EU leaders’ summit, due to take place on December 14 and 15, turning
into a fiasco.
Different
this time: Orbán is no stranger to theatrical threats of holding up EU policy
toward Ukraine and Russia. And so far, despite billions of euros in EU funds
for Hungary still being held up in Brussels, he has always eventually allowed
policy to move forward. But diplomats warn that this time may be different.
Orbán seems to be emboldened by doubts about continuing U.S. support for Kyiv
as well as a lack of clear progress on the battlefield.
Accession
talks delayed: It now appears likely that, due to Orbán’s opposition, the EU
will have to delay opening formal accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova
until early next year, the diplomats warn.
Curious
timing: In a sign of goodwill to Budapest, the EU executive on Thursday
proposed the disbursement of €900 million to Hungary as part of a scheme to
reduce energy dependence on Russia, Gregorio writes in to report.
The
Berlaymont’s defense: Asked whether the release of the funds was designed to
appease the Hungarian strongman, Commission spokesperson Eric Mamer told
journalists Thursday that the EU executive was simply following the rules. The
Commission said this pot of cash is not dependent on rule-of-law requirements
and is meant to provide immediate energy support.
THE NEXT
DUTCH GOVERNMENT
FEAR OF THE
BLOND BEAST: Following Geert Wilders’ shock election victory on Wednesday,
Dutch parties are gathering today to start power-sharing talks that will
determine who becomes the next prime minister.
EU
nightmare: Not only is Wilders a far-right ideologue who rails against Islam,
he also wants to pull the Netherlands out of the EU and stop all support for
Ukraine.
Time to
talk: Despite his Party for Freedom winning the most seats in the election,
Wilders would need to convince other parties to join him in a coalition if he
wants to be PM. In this report, Eline Schaart lays out what to expect in coming
days and weeks as Dutch power-brokers start grappling in earnest with the
peroxide-blond provocateur in their midst.
First
things first: Parties gathering today will appoint a so-called scout — a senior
party operator who will look into possible coalition deals. That will kick off
a negotiation process that could take months to complete. The last government
of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte took a record 299 days to form. This one
could take longer.
Where the
heavyweights stand: Frans Timmermans, whose Green-Labor alliance placed second
in the election, has already ruled out any power-sharing arrangement with
Wilders. “I suspect that we will end up in the opposition,” he said on
Thursday. Pieter Haeck has the full write-up on Europe’s Mr. Green Deal post
election.
Wiggle
room: But other party chiefs are less clear-cut. Dilan Yeşilgöz, head of the
liberal-conservative People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) which
placed third, has stopped short of ruling out a deal with Wilders but said that
she could not see the Netherlands being ruled by someone who “does not bring
together all Dutch people.”
No comment:
Ditto for Pieter Omtzigt, the leader of the new center-right New Social
Contract (NSC) party, which came in fourth. Having declared on election night
that he was “available to govern,” he was tight-lipped on Thursday as to whom
he might govern with.
Window of
opportunity: That leaves open the possibility — however slim — of a coalition
forming around the Party for Freedom, VVD and the NSC. It’s a long shot, but
crazier things have happened. President Trump, anyone?
GETTING TO
KNOW THE DUTCH TRUMP: Long before Donald Trump and Boris Johnson imposed their
shocks of blond hair on the world, there was Geert Wilders — the original blond
beast. Furiously provocative, the man whom Mark Rutte once dubbed a “political
pyromaniac” has lived for years under heavy police protection following a
litany of threats on his life. Having declared nearly 20 years ago that he
wanted to become Dutch prime minister, he’s now closer to his goal than ever
before. Dive in here for Eline’s profile of Wilders.
RUSSIAN
SANCTIONS
O’SULLIVAN
HEADS TO CENTRAL ASIA: EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan heads to Kazakhstan
and Uzbekistan next week as the Union seeks to clamp down on the circumvention
of Russian sanctions by non-EU countries. It will be the second visit to the
central Asian countries by the EU’s top sanctions envoy, who will be
accompanied by officials from the U.S. and the U.K.
Hitting
them where it hurts: “Our job is to try to minimize the circumvention of
sanctions to make it harder for Russia to circumvent, slower for Russia to
circumvent, and more expensive for Russia to circumvent,” O’Sullivan told
POLITICO’s EU Confidential podcast. “We will probably never completely
eliminate circumvention if we’re honest, but if we can make it harder, slower,
and more expensive, this is already an achievement.”
Chasing the
trail: The long-time EU official, who took up his role as EU sanctions czar
earlier this year, is keeping mum on the 12th Russian sanctions package winding
its way through the Council system, but said significant progress has been made
when it comes to clamping down on the re-export of components that end up in
Moscow’s missiles and artillery.
Feeding the
military industrial complex: “There is a list of some 45 tariff lines … which
Ukrainian colleagues have found in the remains of Russian missiles, drones,
artillery shells, and so forth,” O’Sullivan told Suzanne Lynch. “These are
goods which largely would have an innocent civilian application in normal
circumstances, but which we are convinced, once they find their way to Russia,
go directly into the military industrial complex and into weapons.” A
particular focus is encouraging Turkey to ban the export of these products to
Russia, he said.
Slow
puncture: O’Sullivan hit back at the argument that sanctions have failed to
hurt the Russian economy significantly. “Russia is struggling to find the
technology it needs for military kit — they’ve turned to Iran and to North
Korea. The revenue of the Russian government is down — they traditionally ran a
government surplus; they’re currently in a serious deficit. And if you look at
the performance of the Russian economy generally, it’s very poor,” he said.
NEW
COMMISSION SANCTION EFFORT: Russians who seized parts of European companies
after Vladimir Putin’s invasion would be sanctioned under proposals put forward
by the Commission. Until now, the EU has not been able to penalize people who
profited from the seizures. But that will change if the Union’s governments
approve the Commission’s latest sanctions plans contained in a document seen by
POLITICO. Gregorio Sorgi has the details.
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