London Playbook: New PM at 2pm? — Boris bows out
(again) — Spotted at Chequers
BY
ANNABELLE DICKSON
OCTOBER 24,
2022 8:02 AM
Good Monday
morning. This is Annabelle Dickson, I’ll be back with you on Tuesday morning
too.
DRIVING THE
DAY
NEW PM AT
2PM? Rishi Sunak is the red-hot favorite to be crowned PM today after Boris
Johnson sensationally bottled his bid for a Downing Street return. The former
chancellor is on course to complete the most astonishing political comeback of
recent times after his main rival — and former boss — Johnson announced he
would not be running to replace Liz Truss as PM. All eyes are now on Penny
Mordaunt, who may still fancy her chances with the grassroots if she can hoover
up enough disgruntled Johnson supporters to get her over the line. Buckle up
for another rollercoaster of a day in Westminster.
Coronation
street? With Johnson out of the race, Sunak is *miles* out in front. Guido
reckons he has 167 nominations, with Mordaunt trailing on just 30. It’s quite
some turnaround for a guy who was soundly beaten into second place by Liz Truss
during the last Tory leadership contest, just seven bonkers weeks ago.
Happy
Diwali: Victory today would see Sunak crowned Britain’s first-ever Hindu prime
minister, and during Diwali — the five-day Hindu and Sikh festival of lights.
Sunak reflected in this Times interview in July on how lighting ceremonial
diyas on the steps of Downing Street had ranked as one of his proudest career
moments. Amid the political turmoil, it would be easy to overlook what a
landmark moment for Britain his appointment might be.
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Call
Charles: If the whole thing is indeed over at 2 p.m. today, we’re still waiting
to hear precisely when the victor would be anointed prime minister. A carefully
choreographed resignation by Truss and then the traditional request from the
monarch for the new leader to form a government would need to be arranged.
Let’s hope King Charles hasn’t made plans this week.
Deadline
day: And it is of course not yet a done deal. Yesterday was, after all,
a(nother) testament to the fact that a day is a very long time in politics.
Mordaunt still has until 2 p.m. today to stop Sunak in his tracks if she can
hit the 100-nomination threshold, and might yet fancy her chances in a ballot
of the party membership. But in a blow to her chances last night, the new
chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, who she had vowed to keep in post if victorious, rowed
in behind Sunak. Allies say Hunt had in fact been committed to Sunak for days,
but wanted to impartially brief all the candidates on the economic situation
before publishing his Telegraph endorsement. Hunt praised Sunak as the leader
who can be trusted to make difficult choices.
Rishi rollover:
In a further sign that Boris mega-fans might not exactly be rushing over to
Team Mordaunt, key Boris campaigner James Duddridge threw his support behind
Sunak along with Cabinet Office Minister Nadhim Zahawi, David Morris, Shailesh
Vara and Jonathan Gullis. Her campaign did at least get Michael Fabricant back
(chapeau to Guido for keeping up the tally over the long weekend of
shenanigans).
Penny for
her thoughts: Mordaunt campaign sources insisted last night that the House of
Commons leader will fight on, and would be “the unifying candidate who is most
likely to keep the wings of the Conservative Party together.” Supporters still
argue she is the politician Labour fears most as Tory MPs look down the barrel
of electoral annihilation. Key ally Andrea Leadsom, who aborted her own
leadership bid in 2016, of course, was last night pushing Mordaunt to hold out
for more Boris switchers — but others were getting cold feet. A declared
Mordaunt supporter told Playbook they wanted her to fold in behind Sunak.
Plenty of observers in Westminster believe that’s exactly what will happen
today.
Stitch-up:
If Mordaunt doesn’t make it, there will be claims of a stitch-up to avoid party
members getting their say. South Derbyshire MP Heather Wheeler made the extraordinary
claim on LBC yesterday that she was “convinced” the committee had set the
threshold at 100 to avoid Mordaunt reaching the final two. “I’ve had one of the
gentlemen say to me: ‘We can’t have another woman, can we?’ And that’s
outrageous. That’s just not acceptable. It needs to be a fair fight.” Johnson’s backers could also, of course,
still attempt to garner support for another candidate, but the former PM’s
last-minute decision not to run leaves them with just a few hours to build a
campaign.
Keep on
fighting: Team Sunak will also be on a charm offensive this morning, no doubt
trying to thwart any potential Boris-to-Penny switchers. “Rishi will be
continuing to talk to colleagues tomorrow morning before nomination papers go
in, and discussing how best to unite the party and take the country forward,” a
campaign source said.
How it
works: Graham Brady, surely the only 1922 chairman in history to become a
household name given the frequency of these endless Tory leadership elections,
will announce the results shortly after nominations close, probably around 2.15
p.m. If Sunak is the only candidate to have won the backing of more than 100
MPs, it will be a coronation. If Mordaunt makes it through, the pair will go
head-to-head in a hustings at 2.30 p.m., and MPs will then vote between 3.30
p.m. and 5.30 p.m. to reveal who is the most popular of the final two
candidates.
Taking it
further? If the second-place candidate doesn’t then drop out, the vote goes
back to the Tory party membership and the race will be wide open again. CCHQ
chiefs might well be hoping to avoid that scenario, for their own sake. The
Speccie’s James Heale reckons Tory high command has discovered up to 20,000
members do not have an email address, which means they will be unable to have
their say in a membership ballot. This might not go down well, to say the
least.
Call Keir:
Opposition Labour leader Keir Starmer, who will be on LBC with Nick Ferrari at
9 a.m., will no doubt have something to say about the chaos of the past few
days / weeks / months / years. It is a fair bet he will also be calling for an
immediate general election again.
Case for
the prosecution: Close Johnson ally Zac Goldsmith tweeted earlier on Sunday
that an election was now “morally unavoidable.” “I don’t see how we can have a
3rd new PM — & a policy programme that is miles away from the original
manifesto — without going to the country,” he wrote. Tory MPs fighting for
their livelihoods might feel that particular intervention from a mega-rich peer
who no longer has to face the voters is not especially helpful.
What’s your
plan, Rishi? Labour’s Angela Rayner also tried out another attack line last
night, claiming the Tories were “about to hand Rishi Sunak the keys to the
country without him saying a single word about how he would govern.”
The Sunak
manifesto: In fairness, while we haven’t heard what Sunak’s updated plans for
the country might look like if he does become PM this week, he did make quite a
lot of pledges over the summer during his tussle with Truss. To recap on some
of his greatest hits: he wants to keep the ban on building new offshore
windfarms … block housebuilding on the green belt … place a cap on refugee
numbers each year and tighten the definition of what qualifies for asylum … and
take a “tough stance” on public sector pay and avoid a wage-price spiral. The
Telegraph has a handy recap of his leadership pledges here.
Gilted
nomination: As has now become a new habit for the once largely financially
illiterate political class, all eyes will be on those all-important gilt
markets at 8 a.m. as traders give their verdict on the life choices of
Britain’s 357 Tory MPs.
And some
good news: Not everyone is laughing at us Brits. Former United States National
Security Advisor John Bolton puts the latest political dustup in Britain into
perspective on POLITICO this morning. “That both Johnson and Truss fell from
power without impairing the U.K.’s focus on its Ukraine objectives is a telling
point regarding the underlying strength and resilience of Britain’s place in
world affairs,” he says. The special relationship is alive and well.
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HOW BORIS
BOTTLED IT (AGAIN)
BORIS BOWS
OUT: Johnson’s supporters have been left bruised and exhausted after their
weekend efforts to get the ex-PM back into No. 10 Downing Street came to
nothing when he pulled the plug on another tilt at the top job at 9 p.m. last
night. Funnily enough, those 60-plus ministers who quit just a few short months
ago over the rolling scandals engulfing the Johnson administration still don’t
think a chillaxed Boris, with a swanky Dominican Republic tan, is the answer to
the country’s woes right now.
In quotes:
Johnson, of course, never actually declared his candidacy, but in the statement
last night, he announced he wouldn’t be calling on the 102 MPs whose
nominations he claimed to have secured: “In the course of the last days, I have
sadly come to the conclusion that this would simply not be the right thing to
do. You can’t govern effectively unless you have a united party in parliament.”
The late announcement prompted a mass paper headline on deadline re-write in
newsrooms across the country. There is also usually an appropriate Alan
Partridge sketch (h/t Tom Swarbrick).
The grand
old duke: The move left some supporters, who had spent the weekend cheerleading
on behalf of the former PM, looking a little bit foolish. Cabinet Office
Minister Zahawi was mocked for his unfortunately-timed “get ready for Boris
2.0″ op-ed in the Telegraph, which happened to drop minutes after Johnson
pulled out of the race. It had of course been written and submitted much
earlier in the day before there was a sniff of retreat, but that didn’t prevent
some Twitter ribbing.
Furious:
Others involved in the campaign were furious. “If I f***ing see him, he better
hope he’s got a quick flight back to the Dominican Republic. What a complete
and utter f***ing s*** to march people up like this and say to people ‘oh yeah,
it’s definitely happening,'” one incandescent staffer working for a Boris
backer told Playbook.
Surprise: A
more measured James Duddridge appeared to have been blindsided by the news too.
“Well that was unexpected. Off to bed!” he tweeted.
36-hour
sprint: The climbdown came after a 36-hour sprint and spin operation, which
tried and failed to build momentum in Johnson’s favor.
On Saturday
morning: Johnson touched down in the U.K. from his holiday in the Dominican
Republic, with allies briefing journalists the former PM was “up for it” and “going
to do it.”
By Saturday
afternoon: Team Boris started briefing that the ex-PM had more than the 100
backers he needed to secure his place in the contest. Opponents were dubious
about the claims, challenging Johnson to show his work given his public
declarations were significantly lower. A bizarre picture of a slightly
spaced-out-looking Johnson shoring up support, shared by MP Lee Anderson on
Facebook, did little to convey a show of strength. One former adviser said a
picture of him “working the blower” even with loyalists dispelled any sense he
was “being dragged to the throne with MPs clamoring desperately to bring back
Boris.”
Saturday
evening: Johnson and Sunak held face-to-face talks in Millbank Tower, but no
deal was struck. They spoke alone for less than an hour, and both sides
instructed their teams that “what happened in the room was to stay in the
room,” the Sun reports. In his statement, Johnson said he had “reached out to
both Rishi and Penny — because I hoped that we could come together in the
national interest — we have sadly not been able to work out a way of doing
this.” In truth, without the public declarations, he had little in the way of
real leverage.
Sunday
morning: The PM held a rallying 8 a.m. call for supporters, and was suited and
booted for the occasion. The Sun says he told the 50 supporters on the call he
had a mandate from the people to avoid a general election, a message which his
supporters took to Sunday broadcast studios. Johnson won the public backing of
Zahawi, but saw other big-hitters like Home Secretary Grant Shapps and
prominent Brexiteer Steve Baker back Sunak. Sunak also announced his candidacy,
pitching himself as a man of integrity, spelling the end of any deal talks with
Johnson.
Sunday
afternoon: Another key figure on the right of the party — the former Home
Secretary Suella Braverman — backed Sunak on Sunday afternoon. Johnson and
Mordaunt held their talks and Mordaunt reportedly told Johnson that most of her
supporters would end up backing Suank rather than him if they struck a deal.
The Tele’s Ben Riley-Smith got first whiff of the meeting on Sunday. In the late afternoon, a WhatsApp message was
leaked from Johnson’s key supporter Chris Heaton-Harris saying: “We have
completed all the paperwork (verified all nominations with proposer and
seconder) to be on the ballot tomorrow.”
Sunday
evening: With no great show of support, and just eight new public backers added
to his support base over the weekend, Johnson announced he wouldn’t be throwing
his hat in the ring at 9 p.m.
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Party vs
grassroots: In truth, the Johnson momentum never really took off. Key allies,
including the Telegraph’s Charles Moore, had already urged Johnson to back away
from the leadership, for now at least. But questions about whether Johnson
could actually win over the party membership were also starting to be asked
over the weekend given the strong support from MPs for Sunak. The Speccie’s
Fraser Nelson rejected the caricature of Tory members as “swivel-eyed loons
with a picture of Boris on their bedside,” pointing out they “also want a
semi-functional government and will have noticed that Johnson was ultimately
unable to achieve this.”
“They will
not be naive about the implications of foisting Johnson upon a party that
rejected him by (say) a margin of three-to-one,” he wrote on Sunday. Playbook
heard a similar sentiment voiced by other senior Tories over the weekend too.
Magnanimous:
In a tweet after Johnson’s withdrawal, Sunak praised him for delivering Brexit
and the “great vaccine roll-out,” and said he hoped Johnson would continue “to
contribute to public life at home and abroad.” Watch closely to see what, if
any, job Sunak might find for the former PM to keep him out of trouble. If
Sunak is victorious tomorrow, there could be another reshuffle as soon as this
week.
That isn’t
the last of him: But Johnson is likely to be back at the center of the
political drama again soon with the investigation into whether he deliberately
misled parliament over Partygate about to kick off in earnest. The privileges
committee, which is conducting the investigation, is planning to start taking
oral evidence next month, and has confirmed it intends to get Johnson in to
give evidence in person, in public. A space to certainly watch.
Final
defeat: Baker, who threw his support behind Sunak on Sunday morning, added fuel
to the fire of that particular argument against a Johnson return: “There is
going to be a vote before the House of Commons on whether [Johnson]
deliberately misled the house,” Baker said. “In that vote it is guaranteed
there will be a large number of Conservatives who will refuse to lay down their
integrity to save him. At that point his premiership will collapse,” he
predicted.
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