Analysis
Huge margin of support gives Rishi Sunak a free
hand in choosing cabinet
Jessica
Elgot, Rowena Mason, Peter Walker and Aubrey Allegretti
New prime minister likely to prioritise unity in
offering ministerial jobs, although leading Trussites can expect the chop
Mon 24 Oct
2022 22.20 BST
Rishi Sunak
has pledged to build a cabinet of all the talents but, given the swiftness of
the leadership competition, relatively little has been briefed about his
potential cabinet.
His team
say no roles have been promised to any backers and Sunak was in the enviable
position as the frontrunner of not needing to promise roles to anyone.
But he will
have been buoyed up by the backing of MPs from the right and left of the party,
which will help him build a “unity cabinet”.
The team in
No 10
Unlike in
the run-up to Liz Truss’s premiership, many of Sunak’s team had disappeared to
jobs in the private sector after being axed from government and have scrambled
to reassemble. Eleanor Wolfson, a Treasury and Department for Work and Pensions
veteran who has also worked for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, is
tipped to be chief of staff.
Sunak’s
long-serving and loyal media adviser Nerissa Chesterfield is likely to join him
in No 10, along with other comms aides on the campaign team such as Oliver
Dowden’s adviser Lucy Noakes. Liam Booth-Smith, the head of the joint economics
unit under Boris Johnson, is also likely to be heading back to Downing Street,
as well as Sunak’s digital guru Cass Horowitz.
Jeremy Hunt
The current
chancellor endorsed Sunak in both leadership elections and it would make
practical sense to keep him in No 11. He is loyal to Sunak and has been working
on the 31 October statement, which will be the first big test of Sunak’s premiership.
Hunt’s
appointment was a steadying influence on the markets and the two seem to be
aligned on the need for fiscal restraint, especially potentially tough choices
on spending. His number two at the Treasury, Ed Argar, is also tipped to stay
as chief secretary.
Dominic
Raab
Raab earned
his keep for Sunak during the summer as an attack dog when he described Truss’s
unfunded tax cuts as an “electoral suicide note”.
A well
placed source said on Monday night that he would land the home secretary post,
a role he has always coveted.
Grant
Shapps
Less than a
week into the job as home secretary, Shapps backed Sunak in the summer
leadership contest and while it would be appealing to keep him as home
secretary, it seems Sunak has a different agenda for the Home Office.
MPs were
unimpressed to see Suella Braverman go so off-piste in the role but Shapps,
often the designated “minister for the Today programme” when the government is
in a tight spot, doesn’t seem like he will get the chance to make himself too
comfortable in the department.
Penny
Mordaunt
Sunak will
need a woman in one of the four great offices of state and the most obvious
choice would be to make Mordaunt foreign secretary. Having come third in the
last leadership contest, she was tipped as a possible foreign secretary but had
to settle for Commons leader.
Mordaunt is
likely to push for a much more senior role in Sunak’s team, though some of his
backers have been irritated by her refusal to pull out of the contest sooner.
Although
she twice deviated from government policy under Truss (on cutting corporation
tax and raising benefits in line with inflation), she is seen as a skilled
communicator who carries a strong sway with parts of the parliamentary party
and certainly many Tory members.
Suella
Braverman
The former
home secretary’s endorsement of Sunak late last week was an important signal to
the right of the parliamentary party and will have helped encourage others from
that wing to support him.
While the
new PM may be reluctant to move ally Grant Shapps from the post he only
recently took up and repromote her just days after she resigned for committing
a security breach, Braverman may still make a return to the cabinet, perhaps as
justice secretary or party chair.
Oliver
Dowden
The
appearance of Dowden in Sunak’s cabinet is seen as a near certainty given the
former culture secretary and Conservative party chair effectively ran the new
prime minister’s initial leadership campaign over the summer.
Dowden
arguably also heralded the demise of Johnson by resigning in June after two
disastrous Tory byelection losses on the same night. Dowden characterised his
decision as taking responsibility but it was more widely viewed as withdrawing
confidence in the then prime minister.
.
In
Johnson’s last reshuffle, Dowden was tipped for education secretary but instead
was demoted to party chair. It would be an obviously high-profile fit for one
of Sunak’s closest allies.
Robert
Jenrick
Jenrick was
among the few Truss supporters who made it into her ministerial team albeit as
a junior health minister rather than the cabinet role he had enjoyed
previously. As a trusted backer of Sunak, he could be a good fit for the
Cabinet Office.
Jenrick
could be a controversial figure if he returns to the top level of government,
after it emerged that as communities and housing secretary under Johnson, he
had overruled a council and the planning inspectorate to allow Richard Desmond
to go ahead with a £1bn property development in east London, shortly after
sitting next to the media tycoon and Tory donor at a party fundraising dinner.
Kemi
Badenoch
The trade
secretary was a significant coup for Sunak’s campaign when she backed him
instead of Johnson, despite being on the right of the party.
Known as a
culture warrior, it would satiate the right if Sunak gave her culture secretary
or education secretary but it may be a safer move to keep her with the less
controversial trade portfolio.
Michael
Gove
Gove
returned to the backbenches under Truss, saying he was happy to take a back
seat after a decade on and off in cabinet. If Sunak wants a problem solver in a
department, he may turn to Gove, who has done almost every job going, apart
from a great office of state. Neither has he led the health department, which
is facing a multitude of troubles.
Rishi Sunak
gets into a car on the day he is announced as Conservative leader – and soon-to-be
prime minister.
The foreign
secretary has won plaudits for his role so far but could find that Sunak needs
to make space at the top. But he is a well-liked and amenable colleague and
would be an obvious choice to stay in cabinet as a show of unity, albeit
probably in a lesser role.
Other
possible promotions
Sunak
arrived to give his victory speech flanked by new intake MPs Claire Coutinho,
Laura Trott and Craig Williams, all of whom could get beefy ministerial roles.
Others who were key members of his team who were underpromoted or overlooked
under Truss, including Victoria Atkins, Helen Whateley and Lucy Frazer, could
be handed cabinet posts or significant ministerial briefs.
Other
experienced hands who have been leading the public rallying for Sunak include
the former chief whip Mark Harper, the former Northern Ireland secretary Julian
Smith, the former Treasury minister John Glen and select committee chairs Simon
Hoare, Mel Stride and Robert Halfon, all of whom could be offered jobs.
Who’s out?
Jacob
Rees-Mogg is probably top of the list for an exit. Ben Wallace has clashed with
Sunak in the past and secured no guarantees from him on increased defence
spending – so he could also be on the way out.
Truss is
clearly likely to depart the cabinet and Thérèse Coffey, as her closest ally,
will also probably fear for her post. Nadhim Zahawi and Kit Malthouse are close
Johnson backers so their futures must also be in doubt.
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