London Playbook: Tory judgment day — Kiss of
death — BBC bashing latest
BY EMILIO
CASALICCHIO
SEPTEMBER
5, 2022 8:00 AM
POLITICO
London Playbook
By EMILIO
CASALICCHIO
PRESENTED
BY
Lowell
Good Monday
morning. This is Emilio Casalicchio. Eleni Courea will be here tomorrow.
DRIVING THE
DAY
TORY
JUDGMENT DAY: Liz Truss or (massive political upset klaxon) Rishi Sunak will be
declared the winner of the Conservative leadership race this afternoon and will
prepare to take over as prime minister tomorrow. But whoever wins the race
won’t have much time — or cause — to celebrate. Despite overcoming the gauntlet
of swivel-eyed loons to reach the highest political office in the land, success
in the contest could also be a political kiss of death, due to the colossal
economic crisis threatening to bazooka the Tories at the next election. It all
means the next occupant of Downing Street might want to think twice about a
fully unpacking their suitcase.
It’s also a
kiss of death for … the summer hols, which are officially over this morning.
Kids are heading back to school and parliament is sitting from 2.30 p.m. It was
nice while it lasted.
How to
watch the leadership result like a pro: The drama will unfold just after noon
at the QEII center in Westminster. Conservative Chair Andrew Stephenson will
open the event at about 12.30 p.m., then Graham Brady, the boss of the 1922
committee of Tory backbenchers, will read out the results. There will then be a
short speech from the winner and … that’s it. Catch the proceedings on the news
channels.
Privileged
info: The candidates will find out who won and lost 10 minutes in advance of
the public announcement.
**A message
from Lowell: The latest update to the UK Financial Vulnerability Index reveals
that borrowing is not a choice but a necessity for many households as they face
the increased cost of living. Credit use is the highest it has been since the
early months of the pandemic. Find out more here.**
Last-minute
jitters (or not): Neither side in the contest is expecting a surprise. Team
Sunak was last night insisting the result will be closer than people think
(i.e. a smaller loss than expected) while Team Truss was comfortable enough to
discuss her acceptance speech.
Sneak
preview: Team Truss gave some overnight words to the Mail and Sun, insisting if
she wins she will “work tirelessly to deliver for the people of Britain” and
“not let anyone talk this great country down.” She added: “I will do everything
in my power to make sure everyone, no matter where they are from, has the
opportunity to go as far as their talent and hard work takes them.”
No longer
ready for Rishi: Allies of the former chancellor are even more downbeat than
his team, accepting that their candidate will leave empty-handed this
afternoon. Supporters argued that the initial attacks on Sunak for helping to
knife Johnson put him so far behind that he struggled to catch up — despite
winning over skeptics in the latter part of the campaign. “Don’t get me wrong,
the campaign was like a Ben-Hur movie 10 times over — but if it had been a bit
longer he might have done better,” one supporter told Playbook.
Nevertheless:
Sunak backers are insistent that it’s now up to Truss to unite the
Conservatives after the bruising contest. “For the first time ever the members
chose a different candidate to the MPs,” a senior minister told Playbook,
noting that Truss won organic support from just a third of her Commons troops.
“If she gets it wrong, in particular when the nation is in crisis, and doesn’t
build a team that represents the whole party, it could unravel fast,” the same
person warned, adding: “I hope she offers Rishi a good job and not a shit one.”
Lacking
fecal shields: Another Sunak-backer said reports about the coming reshuffle
(including the chaotic thread from Tim Shipman over the weekend) did not bode
well for Conservative relations. “Unless she tries to reach out there won’t be
much support when the shit hits the fan,” the MP said. Even an MP who backed
Truss (albeit once it was clear she would win) lamented that career prospects
in her administration seemed based on “how quick colleagues came out for her
and how hard they sucked up to her.” The same person complained that Truss,
after being open at the start, was narrowing the pool of those she listens to
for advice.
Tories
getting nervous: It’s no surprise the atmosphere is febrile with the party at
its most vulnerable since it took power more than a decade ago. If Truss fails
to turn the tide on the cost of living crisis, the economic woes mixed with the
general desire for change will be potent at the next election. That’s if
Conservative MPs are willing to wait that long. In the Express, David Maddox
hears expectations of a coup if the fuel bills crisis is still raging in
November.
Enter, a
savior: Cue continued speculation in the papers that Boris Johnson could step
in to save the Tories from themselves. All the MPs Playbook spoke to last night
said it was plausible that the outgoing PM, who has a proven track record of
being electoral catnip to the voters (at least before he spaffed his
premiership up the wall) could stage a return.
But but
but: In the meantime, Johnson is expected to keep a low profile, according to
Ben Riley-Smith in the Telegraph. BRS reports BoJo will skip the Conservative
conference this fall and make a stack of cash on the private speaking circuit
before deciding what to do with the rest of his life. Sounds like good value
for money for his constituents, at least. He could take inspiration from Nigel
Farage and launch his own line of gins.
How low is
a low profile? However, the FT picks up on fears among Team Truss that Johnson
could be a constant headache to her administration. “Are we worried about
back-seat driving? Yes,” one Truss supporter told Seb Payne and Alex Barker.
The paper quotes a campaign aide claiming the reason Truss will offer Cabinet
positions to Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries is to keep the Johnson clan
sweet. What’s good for Camp BoJo is good for the nation, natch.
Speaking of
the reshuffle: Playbook hears Truss is struggling to fill the role of Northern
Ireland secretary after being rebuffed by senior colleagues Penny Mordaunt,
Sajid Javid and Robert Buckland. It appears no one wants to get Brexit done
after all. Meanwhile, the Sun’s Natasha Clark reports that close Truss pal
Thérèse Coffey will become deputy PM as well as take on the health brief. Rumor
also has it that former Tom Tugendhat backer Anne-Marie Trevelyan could be
vulnerable. And one person pointed out that in all the Cabinet speculation so
far, none of those being mooted are openly gay.
The one
nailed-on job: Top Truss confidante Kwasi Kwarteng has all but confirmed he
will be her chancellor with a piece in the FT this morning aimed at calming the
markets. He notes that although the Truss regime will see “some fiscal
loosening,” the government will still act “in a fiscally responsible way.” He
also reiterated the Truss message about chasing growth and “not burying our
heads in a redistributive fight over what is left.”
The
reshuffle has started: ICYMI, Refugees Minister Richard Harrington quit his
role last night, arguing his work on the brief is finished because all the
relevant decisions have been taken and the mechanisms are in place to get the
refugee regime working.
Spare a
reshuffle thought for … The special advisers who will end up booted out of
government, some of whom are rather nervous about their futures. In the Times,
Oliver Wright reports that Truss wants a big clearout of the Downing Street
political team, with just a handful including long-suffering SpAd Sheridan
Westlake and foreign adviser John Bew sticking around. Truss will fill roles
with her own aides, but wants to reduce the headcount overall. It’s another of
those drives to create a slimmed down No. 10 which, err, never last.
SpAd
rationing: Playbook also picks up on a rumor that Truss could limit SpAd
numbers to two per secretary of state in most departments. That would be quite
a brazen move for the minister who had a whole battalion in the FCDO.
**With
POLITICO Pro you’ll never miss out on any policy decision coming out of
Westminster impacting your business. Learn more here.**
BREAKING
BRITAIN
THE
GENERATION GAME: Of course, the battle of personalities is lots of fun but the
actual important development this week will be whatever the new PM announces to
deal with the ever-more-pressing cost of living crisis. The Times and Telegraph
both report that Truss will take up the Labour demand of freezing fuel bills
for the poorest, with the government either reimbursing the energy companies or
underwriting loans to be paid back later. Team Truss wouldn’t comment last
night but insisted she understood support will be needed.
The
aggressive approach: The Sun’s Natasha Clark reckons Truss might look at freezing
wholesale gas prices, after one of her economics gurus backed the idea.
Off-the-shelf
suggestions: The Onward think tank is publishing a five-point plan this morning
for how the new PM should deal with the energy crisis. It includes a windfall
tax on low-cost electrical generators to fund support for households; a
campaign to reduce fuel demand; increased use of alternative fuel supplies
including coal and diesel; and working with the EU and other neighbors to
ensure the U.K. keeps getting fuel from overseas.
Softer
landings: Onward is also calling on the government to speed up the rollout of
the £400 support payment for all households and to hike it to £1,000 in 2023,
rising to £2,000 for those who need it. The think tank reckons the total cost
of its proposals would be an estimated £47 billion in 2023. Read more in the
full report here.
Standing up
for freedom latest: The i newspaper reports that the U.K. is asking overseas
allies including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia for help building
the Sizewell C nuclear plant.
CRISIS LAID
BARE: New YouGov polling for this morning’s Good Morning Britain program finds
a third of Brits have fallen into debt because of the cost of living crisis,
with 17 percent skipping meals and 16 percent pawning off their possessions to
cope with rising costs.
THE OTHER
END OF THE ENERGY CRISIS: There’s also the environment to think about, and
while she may have made hay on the campaign trail by slamming the very sight of
solar panels, my POLITICO colleagues Karl Mathiesen, Esther Webber and Noah
Keate have taken a look at the cold hard reality of the choices awaiting Truss.
So far she has given little indication that she was “an environmentalist since
before it was fashionable,” as she often says, going big on her promise to cut
green levies.
A former
Cabinet colleague predicted: “She’s going to be largely uninterested in the
environment [as PM], because that romantic part of the Conservative movement,
which is significant, doesn’t spring in her breast.” But James Frayne of Public
First noted that green skepticism is not the route to maximize votes. He said
even people worried about their finances insist “we’ve got to do something for
our children and grandchildren.”
WHAT
BRUSSELS IS DOING ABOUT SOARING ENERGY BILLS: The EU is on course to impose
historic interventions in the energy market, including a levy on excess profits
of electricity and energy companies, and will also discuss gas price caps,
according to documents obtained by my Brussels Playbook colleague Jakob Hanke
Vela.
TODAY IN
WESTMINSTER
HOUSE OF
COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with Home Office questions, followed by any UQs or
statements. The main business is the second reading of the Data Protection and
Digital Information Bill.
On the
bill: Digital Secretary Nadine Dorries said overnight that the legislation will
“build a new, independent data regime. One that with a number of common-sense
changes, frees up our businesses and unlocks scientific and economic growth,
while maintaining our high data protection standards.”
HOUSE OF
LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with questions on the European Court of Human
Rights, water companies and the benefits of a four-day working week. Peers then
begin the first of eight days of committee stage consideration of the Energy
Bill. The BBC’s Mark D’Arcy reports there could be an urgent question on the
looming wave of new peers set to be appointed through Boris Johnson’s
resignation honors list.
COMMITTEE
CORRIDOR: There’s a parliament crossover episode at the Scottish affairs
committee, which hosts Scottish Trade Minister Ivan McKee for a session on
military shipbuilding (3 p.m.). Meanwhile, the leveling up committee begins a
probe into reforming the private rented sector, with evidence from renters and
landlords’ groups (4 p.m.).
STORY OF
THE DAY: Top scoop from Noa Hoffman in the Sun, who reveals Health Minister
Gillian Keegan’s husband Michael is a non-executive director for a firm that
has received £24 million-worth of government contracts. He also happens to be a
Cabinet Office civil servant working on, err, government relationships with
suppliers. Read those two lines again. The Cabinet Office said he “plays no
role in awarding contracts to suppliers.” Still astonishing that this is
allowed and no one had second thoughts about the perceived conflict of
interest.
WATCH THIS
SPACE: Foreign affairs committee Chairman Tom Tugendhat has said the U.K.
should ban imports of cotton from Xinjiang after the recent U.N. report about
Chinese human rights abuses against Uyghurs in the region. He makes the case in
an article for the Telegraph. Tugendhat is, of course, expected to get a seat
at the Cabinet table under Truss. So could this be the next sanction against
China?
LABOUR
LAND: Opposition boss Keir Starmer is visiting a London secondary school this
morning with education spokeswoman Bridget Phillipson to mark the return of the
school term. The pair will do a Q&A with pupils from the “school
parliament” and Starmer will appear in a pool clip around noon.
The drama
awaiting Starmer: In the past few minutes, the Guardian published an
interesting read from Peter Walker about how Labour is planning to approach a
Truss administration. One aide argued she would be much easier to predict than
Boris Johnson, while another top figure said Truss would not “be a ditherer.
She’s going to try and smash things, which means we can’t just be on the
sidelines saying: ‘Excuse me, what are you doing?’”
RED ALERT
FOR CIVIL SERVANTS: Brexit Opportunities Minister Jacob Rees-Mogg wants to
crack down on “flexi-time” in Whitehall (working longer hours at some points to
take time off elsewhere) because he worries officials are “using the system
combined with mass working from home to just not work,” allies of his tell the
Times. JRM reckons staff are going shopping or to the gym during work hours and
has asked for stats on the flexi-regime from all departments. It’s a
masterclass in how to inflame tensions with officials.
LITTLE
NOTICED OVER THE WEEKEND: Northern Ireland Minister Conor Burns spoke to
European Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič — the first time a minister
has held talks with the EU about the controversial Northern Ireland protocol
for around six months.
PAUSE,
RWANDA: A legal challenge against the government plan to ship asylum seekers
off to Rwanda begins this morning. Expect demos outside the Royal Courts of
Justice, where the hearing is taking place.
BBC BASHING
LATEST: The Mail managed to trigger political Twitter again last night with a
front–page splash tearing into the BBC after comedian Joe Lycett mocked Truss
and the Tories on the new Laura Kuenssberg show. The Mail fumes about the
incident in a double-page spread and circles Lycett’s face in red as if he were
a crime suspect. It carries fuming quotes from Conservative MPs Lee Anderson
and John Hayes and rages in its leader that “turning the Tory-loathing BBC
super-tanker around will be a herculean task.” Lycett was pleased as punch
about the damage done (and his ticket sales, no doubt.) The BBC does seem to
have shot itself in the foot with this one.
LAST NIGHT
IN SWEDEN UPDATE: A series of recent shootings across Sweden, linked to narco
wars, have sharpened voter focus on law and order ahead of polling day on
September 11, reports POLITICO’s Charlie Duxbury.
**A message
from Lowell: At Lowell, we believe in making credit work better for all – that
means a commitment to fair and ethical customer practices. Customers never pay
a penny more than is owed, with no fees or interest charged by Lowell. Lowell
has led the industry with its approach to supporting Customers in Vulnerable
Situations to ensure the best support is provided when our customers need us
most. As part of our mission we support the biannual publication of the
Financial Vulnerability Index, which provides unique insight into the evolving
picture of financial health in the UK. To see what the Autumn 2022 update
reveals about your area, please click here.**
.jpeg)
.jpeg)
.jpeg)
.jpeg)
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário