Liz, meet Liz
The new UK prime minister kicks off her term by
meeting the Queen. It’s all downhill from there.
BY
ANNABELLE DICKSON
SEPTEMBER
5, 2022 10:37 PM
LONDON — At
around midday Tuesday, Liz Truss will arrive in the grand surrounds of Balmoral
Castle, Queen Elizabeth’s sprawling 19th-century mansion in the Scottish
highlands.
Her
96-year-old host will have a simple request for her guest — to form the next
government of the United Kingdom.
Truss will
be the 15th politician of whom Queen Elizabeth has made such a request, at an
audience known as “kissing hands” — although hands, in fact, are no longer
kissed. Instead, tradition dictates Truss will curtsy, and — afterwards —
briefly discuss the work that lies ahead. No aides or officials will be
present.
Tuesday’s
appointment will be the Queen’s first at her Aberdeenshire residence, where she
traditionally spends the late summer and early fall holidaying with her family.
Recurring mobility issues have prevented the elderly monarch’s return to her
London home, Buckingham Palace, which is a short drive from 10 Downing Street
and would usually form the backdrop as she performs her constitutional role of
accepting the resignation of a defenestrated prime minister — as she will have
done with Boris Johnson earlier that day — and inviting their victorious
successor to form a government.
For Truss,
it will be a moment to savor, the culmination of 12 long years working her way
up the greasy pole of Westminster politics, followed by a sprint to the finish
in a brutal summer-long Tory leadership contest.
But the
victorious leader won’t have long to reflect on her journey at the Queen’s
50,000-acre estate on the banks of the River Dee.
Instead she
will quickly fly south again to meet a prime ministerial convoy, which will
take her directly to Downing Street. Here, the rhetoric of her summer-long
campaign will collide with the harsh reality that awaits. Truss will be in
charge, and there will be much to do.
After
making an address to the nation outside 10 Downing Street at around 4 p.m.,
Truss will be greeted by Cabinet Secretary Simon Case, Whitehall’s most senior
civil servant, and receive the traditional round of applause from Downing
Street staff as she arrives at her new office and home. She will then be led
into the Cabinet room, likely with her husband Hugh O’Leary in tow.
“For that
person coming through the door in No. 10, it’s the highlight of their career,
and that may be the biggest moment of their lives,” Gus O’Donnell, a former
Cabinet secretary, told the BBC on Monday. He recalled how David Cameron, who
became PM in 2010, had simply put his head in his hands in the Cabinet room as
the reality of the moment dawned upon him.
The first
question from officials will be stark. The new PM must make clear whether they
intend to “blow up the rest of the world when we’ve been blown up,” O’Donnell
said, in reference to the U.K.’s nuclear deterrent. Truss will then be
presented with a series of “quite scary” security and intelligence briefings —
although having served as foreign secretary for the past 12 months, little of
what she hears should come as a surprise.
A call with
the president of the United States, Joe Biden, and Ukraine’s President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy will also be on the cards.
“It’s a bit
of a chaotic day,” O’Donnell smiled.
Money man
The most
pressing task for the new prime minister will be calming the markets.
Truss takes
over at a time of high inflation, rising interest rates, soaring energy prices
already forcing businesses to close their doors, and an imminent recession.
How Truss
and her new chancellor react will be crucial. Kwasi Kwarteng, an old friend of
Truss and fellow free market traveler, has been working on economic policy in
her transition team, and is widely expected to take charge at the Treasury once
Truss is in a position to unveil her top team.
In a piece
for the Financial Times on Monday Kwarteng promised “bold” action, rolling the
pitch for what he called “fiscal loosening, to help people through the winter”
— shorthand for a Treasury borrowing spree.
He also
doubled down on Truss’ promise of “immediate action” to cut taxes, and her plan
to unshackle business from “unsuitable regulations.”
But
combining what is expected to be a multi-billion pound package of energy
support, likely to be announced Thursday, with a package of massive tax cuts later
this month — not to mention the prospect of a damaging trade war with the
European Union further down the line — will be quite a test of market
confidence.
Sterling
finished last week near its lowest level against the dollar in almost three
decades, and forecasters predict it could yet fall further. Truss knows she
must avoid a ‘Black Wednesday‘-style rout if she is to survive for long.
Cabinet of
all the talents?
After
putting her new chancellor in place, Truss will have the grisly task of sacking
a succession of unwanted ministers, before filling the vacancies with her
chosen top team. It is a job fraught with difficulties at the best of times,
but will be particularly difficult after such a divisive leadership contest.
Some of
those expected to depart have already saved her the trouble, however. Johnson
loyalists Priti Patel and Nigel Adams, respectively the home secretary and a
senior Cabinet Office minister, quit their posts Monday after Truss’ victory
was announced.
But Truss,
even with the large House of Commons majority she inherits from Johnson, will
have to heal some of the wounds within the Tory Party if she is to get her
program of government through.
A far
greater number of Conservative MPs had initially backed her leadership rival, Rishi
Sunak, although she did start to build more support when it became clear she
was the Tory membership’s favored choice.
“Whatever
she decides on the energy package, it will involve some legislation at some
point. She’s got to get that through the House,” O’Donnell said. “She’s got to
bring the party together. The choice of her Cabinet will be absolutely
crucial.”
The
reaction of the Tory backbenches will be very publicly on display at her first
session of prime minister’s questions on Wednesday, less than 24 hours after
she takes office.
Truss will
have little time to prepare for the noon showdown with Labour Party leader Keir
Starmer, a half-hour parliamentary fixture at which backbench MPs can ask her
anything in the febrile atmosphere of the Commons chamber.
The mother
of all in-trays
Truss is
still finalizing her response to what will surely be the biggest question of
the day, however — the support which should be offered to households and
businesses facing crippling energy bill hikes next month.
The big
announcement is penciled in for Thursday, and the public’s response will be the
first big test of her government. Get it right, and her poll ratings could
soar, rapidly calming Tory jitters about the competence of their new leader.
Get it wrong, and already-disgruntled MPs will start to cause trouble.
Truss also
knows she must get inflation under control if there is any chance of avoiding
recession. The rising cost of living has triggered waves of industrial action —
paralyzing rail and mail services, as well as the criminal courts.
Meanwhile
the bloody war on mainland Europe shows no sign of abating, and Truss’ support
for Ukraine’s resistance cannot be questioned. A symbolic trip to Kyiv will be
near the top of her in-tray.
And she
must also decide how to tackle the Brexit question, with relations with the
European Union on ice over her controversial Northern Ireland Protocol Bill
currently making its way through Parliament. A confrontation with the House of
Lords, which is gearing up for a long battle with Truss over the legislation,
is almost certain.
There are
signs that Truss may attempt to make progress on negotiations with Brussels,
however, with an early trip to Ireland reportedly on her agenda.
Aides have
suggested she may alternatively trigger Article 16 of the Protocol, however — a
provision that allows an aggrieved side to suspend a particular part of the
agreement if it leads to “serious economic, societal or environmental
difficulties.” The EU would not be impressed.
“The EU and
the U.K. are partners,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European
Commission, said pointedly on Monday. She told Truss she looked forward to “a
constructive relationship, in full respect of our agreements.”
In her
victory speech Truss promised to “govern as a Conservative,” and to “deliver
for our country.” Given the ferocious nature of the headwinds that lie ahead,
she will have a tough job just to stay on course.
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