Not radical enough? Starmer’s caution may yet
carry Labour to power
Polly
Toynbee
Some of the party faithful are impatient for more, but
they must keep their eyes fixed firmly on the prize
Tue 2 Aug
2022 06.00 BST
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/02/labour-power-keir-starmer
The
official opposition is within touching distance of victory. As minor skirmishes
break out within the party, Labour people should keep their eyes firmly fixed
on that prize. All the disasters must belong to the Tories.
By the end
of this year, Keir Starmer may be in No 10, with the shadow chancellor, Rachel
Reeves, next door, and with a cabinet table filled with serious new ministers
hitting the ground running, after Liz Truss (let’s assume it’s her) has “hit
the ground”, as she mis-tweeted recently. The Tory cabinet will fade as if a
bad dream: surely Nadine Dorries, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Suella Braverman, Grant
Shapps and the rest never happened?
But right
now, expect Prime Minister Truss to get a poll bounce, which is why she may
grab her only election chance sooner rather than later. Even if she waits for
2023’s boundary changes to come into effect, those extra five to 10 seats won’t
be able to outweigh the electoral damage of an escalating cost of living
calamity.
Nothing but
trouble awaits her, shackled to those impossible pledges. Her low-tax bidding
war leaves no money. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has exploded the fantasy
that tax cuts bring growth. If so, the IFS says, why have countries with higher
tax than ours, such as France and Germany, achieved higher growth? The
Conservatives’ plans only allow for unacceptable 2-3% increases in
public-sector pay. Meanwhile, services are already collapsing, with backlogs of
6.6 million people waiting for NHS England operations, 60,000 court cases
pending in England and Wales, and 90% of English schools waiting for urgent
repairs. So where will her “smaller state” cuts come from?
The damage
from Brexit will harden if Truss breaks the Northern Ireland protocol,
triggering an EU trade war. If she veers an inch from a rock-hard Brexit then
the European Research Group will make her life hell. Her vociferous climate refusers
will keep her to abolishing green levies and “not letting net zero affect
business”, while long-neglected infrastructure is exposed in energy and water
shortages. Boris Johnson sitting behind her, yearning to return, will relish
every failure.
Whenever
the general election comes, Labour looks likely to win: governments fall when
voters suffer unmanageable drops in income. A wave of social democratic wins in
Australia, Germany, US, Portugal, Norway, Finland, Denmark and others augurs
well. Recent polling from Savanta ComRes, Survation, Ipsos and more put the
Labour lead in double digits. Starmer beats either contender as best prime
minister when “red wall” voters are asked, according to fresh polling from
Redfield & Wilton Strategies.
When the
new Tory leader gets a poll bounce, expect impatient Labour people to panic at
Starmer’s caution. He only says what he’s against, they complain. Yes, to stop
the Tories gleefully turning the election into another Brexit rout, it was
essential (though painful) to take a stand against rejoining the single market
or customs union: the word “rejoin” ignites old fires. But there’s no doubt the
party would make EU peace and trade deals, join the Horizon and Erasmus
programmes, and agree equal food and goods standards, easy visas for artists,
agree EU professional qualifications and more. I back rejoin movements – but I
don’t think Labour should.
It’s the
same with strikes. All of Labour backs the fight to prevent massive cuts for
those whose pay fell or stagnated for a decade. Strikers stand for everyone,
the un-unionised are pulled up by union rates. But Starmer is not wrong to
think that a convincing government-in-waiting shouldn’t be seen as protesters:
parliament is their forum. Labour shadow ministers gnashed their teeth over the
picket line grandstanding of Sam Tarry, who reacted to the prospect of being
deselected in Ilford South by claiming, “I am on the side of ordinary British
workers”, as if the rest weren’t. Mick Lynch is a great advocate, but the
shadow cabinet has a more complex task than he does.
The party’s
position, as a senior Labour official tells me, is “100% behind the right to
strike” and “to make sure workers get the pay they deserve”. The commitment to
ending “the scourge of low pay” means Labour would introduce fair pay
agreements across every sector: no zero-hour contracts, no fire-and-rehire,
flexible working and the right for unions to recruit in every workplace. The
£28bn Green New Deal will create good jobs setting up electric car battery
factories and insulating 19m homes.
Last week’s
howl at Starmer and Reeves’ betrayal was over renationalising utilities. But is
it wise for Labour to spend billions buying these back, before spending on them
or anything else? As Reeves’s team pointed out, rail is effectively state-owned
already. Pragmatism means super-tough regulation can do more without wasting a
penny. Southern Water is imposing hose pipe bans while reportedly leaking 21m
gallons a day. Who wants to pay its owner, the investment bank Macquarie, who
loaded it with another £1bn debt while its CEO earns £14.8m? England’s water
regulator, Ofwat, warns that rising interest rates will see some water
companies go bust – that needs state takeovers.
As for
Labour’s taxes, Reeves says she will target the £174bn lost in tax relief loopholes,
so “the broadest shoulders” pay most. She would take another £5bn windfall from
energy profits. Making private equity managers pay income tax on earnings that
they pretend are “carried interest” could raise £440m annually from 2,000
people, according to the BBC: taxing earned and unearned income the same yields
a lot. Charging VAT on private school fees would bring £1.7bn for state
schools, where, as promised in last year’s conference speech, Starmer
guarantees every child the experience of arts, sports and expeditions. The
shadow education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, promises universal breakfast
and after-school clubs and mental health hubs. Sure Start, I’m told, will be
back. There’s a great deal more to come.
Labour
people want more radicalism now. For us, nothing can be enough. But Starmer’s
Labour is far less cautious than in 1997 when Tony Blair and Gordon Brown
welded themselves to a crippling two-year fall in spending. The quintessence of
life on the left is Labour losing over and over again. But all the auguries say
not this time.
Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist
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