segunda-feira, 27 de junho de 2022

DRIVING THE DAY / LONDON PLAYBOOK

 


By ELENI COUREA

Good Monday morning. This is Eleni Courea.

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/next-stop-schloss-elmau-le-bromance-ni-bill-showdown/

 

DRIVING THE DAY

 

CASTLE IN THE SKY: Boris Johnson kicks off his week at the G7 summit in the Bavarian Alps looking increasingly desperate to project strength and leadership on the international stage — as his critics at home sharpen their knives.

 

No. 10 strategy: Downing Street is doing its best to dismiss anti-Johnson Tory plotting as a Westminster bubble distraction and to underline that with his foreign policy work this week — especially on Ukraine — the PM is getting on with the real job.

 

Boris vs. Manu: To that end, No. 10 strategists rather transparently inserted an eye-catching line into one of their ordinarily deathly boring readouts this weekend. They said that at his meeting on Sunday discussing Ukraine with French President Emmanuel Macron, the PM “stressed any attempt to settle the conflict now will only cause enduring instability and give [Russian President Vladimir] Putin licence to manipulate both sovereign countries and international markets in perpetuity.” The story splashes the Guardian, at any rate. In his overnight analysis, the BBC’s Chris Mason notes that while “publicly, No. 10 insists President Macron has done ‘huge amounts’ to support Ukraine, privately there is concern Paris is losing appetite for the long-term slog of the war, and its costs.”

 

‘Le bromance’: Downing Street sources were insistent that Johnson and Macron had in fact turned a new leaf yesterday, however, as Johnson jokingly referred to “le bromance” between them. In the Mail, John Stevens has a No. 10 source saying “it’s all great with the French now” and that “both sides are aligned” on defeating Russia. The Times’ Chris Smyth reports that “Johnson was said to be effusive after he emerged from the meeting because Macron’s firm line on Ukraine exceeded British expectations.” Smyth notes that they avoided pretty much every contentious topic — Channel crossings, Brexit, fishing and the AUKUS defense pact — to concentrate on finding common ground on Ukraine. The two leaders agreed to push for an Iraq-style “surge” of arms and troops into the country and hold an Anglo-French summit to thaw frosty relations over the next few months.

 

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And yet: U.K. sources also rubbished claims from a French official that Johnson had shown “a lot of enthusiasm” for Macron’s idea of a European Political Community — a sort of middle-ground EU membership originally proposed for Ukraine — that the U.K. could be part of. Downing Street sources tell the Sun’s Harry Cole that Johnson was “just being polite” and the Telegraph’s Tony Diver that it was “more like a deflection” than an endorsement. Playbook suspects Macron has just experienced the sort of flannel the PM gives ministers during Cabinet reshuffles.

 

The elephant in the room: While Johnson glad-hands EU leaders and Joe Biden, U.K. ministers are bringing forward incendiary legislation to ditch parts of the Northern Ireland protocol today. On Sophy Ridge on Sunday the EU ambo called the move “illegal and unrealistic.” Liz Truss sets out the case for the bill in the FT, saying that ministers are “obliged to act.”

 

Crucially: The extent of Tory backbench opposition to the move will be tested for the first time this afternoon as the legislation gets its first outing in the Commons. Truss will open the debate at around 3.30pm — or later if there are urgent questions —and Brandon Lewis is expected to close it before MPs vote tonight.

 

A taste of what’s to come: Damian Green — who was the de-facto deputy PM during Theresa May’s premiership — put his head above the parapet to urge the Cabinet to move against Johnson. “It’s no secret that many of the people in the Cabinet are setting up potential leadership campaigns,” he told Andrew Neil on Channel 4 last night. “I think if this long agony for everyone concerned, from the PM down, is to be brought to a head… then maybe somebody in the Cabinet might wish to take some action.”

 

Enemy lines: William Wragg — another Johnson arch-critic — issued a similar rallying cry on Westminster Hour, saying that “the sense of disappointment that there is on the backbenches towards the Cabinet is palpable because you would have expected for some of them at least to show a bit of backbone.” He added: “Any of them with leadership aspirations might wish to consider this and do something about it.”

 

The clear implication: If you’re a top-ranking minister hoping to succeed Johnson, Tory rebel ring-leaders won’t look kindly on your decision to blithely continue serving in his Cabinet.

 

One box ticked: The European Research Group’s self-styled “star chamber” rubber-stamped the legislation over the weekend. POLITICO’s Cristina Gallardo has a write-up of their verdict. Labour, on the other had, will vote against and has committed to repealing it if it forms a government.

 

Alpine diary: Over at Schloss Elmau, the PM has an interview with the BBC’s Chris Mason at around 8.35 a.m. … a session on Ukraine, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dialing in, at 9 a.m. … then a session on climate, energy health involving a wider group of partner countries … a bilat with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa at lunchtime … and a session on food security and gender equality in the afternoon. 

 

Time for a roasting: Johnson will meet other leaders — including Macron, Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen — for what will surely be the world’s most awkward BBQ just as MPs are due to vote on legislation which Brussels has launched three separate lawsuits over. Should make for some lively conversation over bratwurst.

 

Jet-measuring contest: Speaking of awkward conversations, Johnson and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau had a toe-curling exchange about the size of their respective private jets yesterday. The PM, a public schoolboy to the last, complimented Trudeau on his “big plane,” to which Trudeau bashfully replied “it’s not quite as big as yours.” All your Playbook author knows is that having traveled with the PM to Rwanda last week, we were told the plane No. 10 had booked for this multi-summit trip was “the small one” and that we — plus several other outlets — would therefore have to be excluded from reporting the PM’s activities at the G7. (Yes, these geniuses really are running the country.) So we’ll be the first to point out that sometimes size really does matter.

 

If you can’t get enough of all this: The POLITICO Europe team is live-blogging the summit. Jonathan Lemire and Karl Mathiesen have an overnight write-up of the $600 billion global infrastructure initiative designed to counter China’s Belt and Road project.

 

Coming down the tracks: The PM hinted yesterday that he was minded to extend steel tariffs to protect the U.K.’s domestic industry despite warnings this will breach WTO rules — an issue which triggered the resignation of his ethics adviser Christopher Geidt this month. Steve Swinford reports in the Times that international trade sec Anne-Marie Trevelyan has warned that while she is supportive of the policy, nations including India, Turkey and South Korea would be entitled to retaliate.

 

Not coming down the tracks: Johnson’s bid to slow the production of biofuel is likely to be blocked by opposition from Biden. The Tel’s Tony Diver reports that Germany is backing the plan but the U.S. and Canada are skeptical.

 

While the cat’s away: Back in Westminster, as well as apparently pressuring the Cabinet to act, Tory rebels are this week resubmitting their letters to Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs, to try and force a new confidence vote. However, the timings for the all-important election to the 1922 committee’s exec are still up in the air, Playbook hears — a senior Tory source said last night that it’s not the case that nominations will open this week.

 

What the PM’s allies are saying: In her i column over the weekend, Katy Balls picked up the frankly ludicrous argument being advanced by Downing street aides that if you tally the total number of votes cast in the two by-elections (in Wakefield and in Tiverton and Honiton), which at 70,000 are roughly the number of voters in a constituency, the Tories “come out on top.”

 

In that vein: Playbook has been leaked WhatsApp messages from the 109 Group of Tory 2019ers in which Andrew Griffith, who heads the No. 10 Policy Unit, messaged colleagues earnestly on Saturday that while “last night was obviously not the result any of us wanted,” if you aggregate the votes then the Tories win with 24,634 votes to the Lib Dems’ 23,045, and Labour comes “a poor third” with 14,728. Angela Richardson, the Guildford MP who was sacked as a PPS, then reinstated, then resigned, said in response: “Well there’s spin and then there’s high level intensity spin class kind of spin.” Paul Holmes — who quit his own PPS role a month ago — described it more frankly as a “highly irregular and grasping assessment.”

 

Into the long grass: For his part the PM will delay a highly anticipated Cabinet reshuffle until the autumn, after ministers warned that it would destabilize his government, the Times’ Steve Swinford and Matt Chorley report. Those who are sacked could become “really vigorous agitators” on the backbenches, one Cabinet minister tells them. Johnson has told allies that he wants time to think through any moves after returning to the U.K. from a series of international summits on Friday.

 

What everyone will be on the hunt for this week: The six Tory MPs who, according a Labour briefing to the Sunday Times’ Lobby team, are considering defecting to the party.

 

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