By ELENI
COUREA
Good Monday
morning. This is Eleni Courea.
DRIVING THE DAY
CASTLE IN
THE SKY: Boris Johnson kicks off his week at the G7 summit in the Bavarian Alps
looking increasingly desperate to project strength and leadership on the
international stage — as his critics at home sharpen their knives.
No. 10
strategy: Downing Street is doing its best to dismiss anti-Johnson Tory
plotting as a Westminster bubble distraction and to underline that with his
foreign policy work this week — especially on Ukraine — the PM is getting on
with the real job.
Boris vs.
Manu: To that end, No. 10 strategists rather transparently inserted an
eye-catching line into one of their ordinarily deathly boring readouts this
weekend. They said that at his meeting on Sunday discussing Ukraine with French
President Emmanuel Macron, the PM “stressed any attempt to settle the conflict
now will only cause enduring instability and give [Russian President Vladimir]
Putin licence to manipulate both sovereign countries and international markets
in perpetuity.” The story splashes the Guardian, at any rate. In his overnight
analysis, the BBC’s Chris Mason notes that while “publicly, No. 10 insists
President Macron has done ‘huge amounts’ to support Ukraine, privately there is
concern Paris is losing appetite for the long-term slog of the war, and its
costs.”
‘Le bromance’:
Downing Street sources were insistent that Johnson and Macron had in fact
turned a new leaf yesterday, however, as Johnson jokingly referred to “le
bromance” between them. In the Mail, John Stevens has a No. 10 source saying
“it’s all great with the French now” and that “both sides are aligned” on
defeating Russia. The Times’ Chris Smyth reports that “Johnson was said to be
effusive after he emerged from the meeting because Macron’s firm line on
Ukraine exceeded British expectations.” Smyth notes that they avoided pretty
much every contentious topic — Channel crossings, Brexit, fishing and the AUKUS
defense pact — to concentrate on finding common ground on Ukraine. The two
leaders agreed to push for an Iraq-style “surge” of arms and troops into the
country and hold an Anglo-French summit to thaw frosty relations over the next
few months.
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And yet:
U.K. sources also rubbished claims from a French official that Johnson had
shown “a lot of enthusiasm” for Macron’s idea of a European Political Community
— a sort of middle-ground EU membership originally proposed for Ukraine — that
the U.K. could be part of. Downing Street sources tell the Sun’s Harry Cole
that Johnson was “just being polite” and the Telegraph’s Tony Diver that it was
“more like a deflection” than an endorsement. Playbook suspects Macron has just
experienced the sort of flannel the PM gives ministers during Cabinet
reshuffles.
The
elephant in the room: While Johnson glad-hands EU leaders and Joe Biden, U.K.
ministers are bringing forward incendiary legislation to ditch parts of the
Northern Ireland protocol today. On Sophy Ridge on Sunday the EU ambo called
the move “illegal and unrealistic.” Liz Truss sets out the case for the bill in
the FT, saying that ministers are “obliged to act.”
Crucially:
The extent of Tory backbench opposition to the move will be tested for the
first time this afternoon as the legislation gets its first outing in the
Commons. Truss will open the debate at around 3.30pm — or later if there are
urgent questions —and Brandon Lewis is expected to close it before MPs vote
tonight.
A taste of
what’s to come: Damian Green — who was the de-facto deputy PM during Theresa
May’s premiership — put his head above the parapet to urge the Cabinet to move
against Johnson. “It’s no secret that many of the people in the Cabinet are
setting up potential leadership campaigns,” he told Andrew Neil on Channel 4
last night. “I think if this long agony for everyone concerned, from the PM
down, is to be brought to a head… then maybe somebody in the Cabinet might wish
to take some action.”
Enemy
lines: William Wragg — another Johnson arch-critic — issued a similar rallying
cry on Westminster Hour, saying that “the sense of disappointment that there is
on the backbenches towards the Cabinet is palpable because you would have
expected for some of them at least to show a bit of backbone.” He added: “Any
of them with leadership aspirations might wish to consider this and do
something about it.”
The clear
implication: If you’re a top-ranking minister hoping to succeed Johnson, Tory
rebel ring-leaders won’t look kindly on your decision to blithely continue
serving in his Cabinet.
One box
ticked: The European Research Group’s self-styled “star chamber” rubber-stamped
the legislation over the weekend. POLITICO’s Cristina Gallardo has a write-up
of their verdict. Labour, on the other had, will vote against and has committed
to repealing it if it forms a government.
Alpine
diary: Over at Schloss Elmau, the PM has an interview with the BBC’s Chris
Mason at around 8.35 a.m. … a session on Ukraine, with President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy dialing in, at 9 a.m. … then a session on climate, energy health
involving a wider group of partner countries … a bilat with South African
President Cyril Ramaphosa at lunchtime … and a session on food security and
gender equality in the afternoon.
Time for a
roasting: Johnson will meet other leaders — including Macron, Biden, German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen —
for what will surely be the world’s most awkward BBQ just as MPs are due to
vote on legislation which Brussels has launched three separate lawsuits over.
Should make for some lively conversation over bratwurst.
Jet-measuring
contest: Speaking of awkward conversations, Johnson and Canadian PM Justin
Trudeau had a toe-curling exchange about the size of their respective private
jets yesterday. The PM, a public schoolboy to the last, complimented Trudeau on
his “big plane,” to which Trudeau bashfully replied “it’s not quite as big as
yours.” All your Playbook author knows is that having traveled with the PM to
Rwanda last week, we were told the plane No. 10 had booked for this
multi-summit trip was “the small one” and that we — plus several other outlets
— would therefore have to be excluded from reporting the PM’s activities at the
G7. (Yes, these geniuses really are running the country.) So we’ll be the first
to point out that sometimes size really does matter.
If you can’t
get enough of all this: The POLITICO Europe team is live-blogging the summit.
Jonathan Lemire and Karl Mathiesen have an overnight write-up of the $600
billion global infrastructure initiative designed to counter China’s Belt and
Road project.
Coming down
the tracks: The PM hinted yesterday that he was minded to extend steel tariffs
to protect the U.K.’s domestic industry despite warnings this will breach WTO
rules — an issue which triggered the resignation of his ethics adviser
Christopher Geidt this month. Steve Swinford reports in the Times that
international trade sec Anne-Marie Trevelyan has warned that while she is
supportive of the policy, nations including India, Turkey and South Korea would
be entitled to retaliate.
Not coming
down the tracks: Johnson’s bid to slow the production of biofuel is likely to
be blocked by opposition from Biden. The Tel’s Tony Diver reports that Germany
is backing the plan but the U.S. and Canada are skeptical.
While the
cat’s away: Back in Westminster, as well as apparently pressuring the Cabinet
to act, Tory rebels are this week resubmitting their letters to Graham Brady,
the chairman of the 1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs, to try and force a
new confidence vote. However, the timings for the all-important election to the
1922 committee’s exec are still up in the air, Playbook hears — a senior Tory
source said last night that it’s not the case that nominations will open this
week.
What the
PM’s allies are saying: In her i column over the weekend, Katy Balls picked up
the frankly ludicrous argument being advanced by Downing street aides that if
you tally the total number of votes cast in the two by-elections (in Wakefield
and in Tiverton and Honiton), which at 70,000 are roughly the number of voters
in a constituency, the Tories “come out on top.”
In that
vein: Playbook has been leaked WhatsApp messages from the 109 Group of Tory
2019ers in which Andrew Griffith, who heads the No. 10 Policy Unit, messaged
colleagues earnestly on Saturday that while “last night was obviously not the
result any of us wanted,” if you aggregate the votes then the Tories win with
24,634 votes to the Lib Dems’ 23,045, and Labour comes “a poor third” with
14,728. Angela Richardson, the Guildford MP who was sacked as a PPS, then
reinstated, then resigned, said in response: “Well there’s spin and then
there’s high level intensity spin class kind of spin.” Paul Holmes — who quit
his own PPS role a month ago — described it more frankly as a “highly irregular
and grasping assessment.”
Into the
long grass: For his part the PM will delay a highly anticipated Cabinet
reshuffle until the autumn, after ministers warned that it would destabilize
his government, the Times’ Steve Swinford and Matt Chorley report. Those who
are sacked could become “really vigorous agitators” on the backbenches, one
Cabinet minister tells them. Johnson has told allies that he wants time to
think through any moves after returning to the U.K. from a series of
international summits on Friday.
What
everyone will be on the hunt for this week: The six Tory MPs who, according a
Labour briefing to the Sunday Times’ Lobby team, are considering defecting to
the party.
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