Why grumpy old men will save politics

 

OPINION

Why grumpy old men will save politics

 

The reemergence of Donald Tusk provides yet another example of the established politician’s appeal in the fight against authoritarianism.

 

BY MACIEJ KISILOWSKI

July 7, 2021 4:01 am

Maciej Kisilowski is an associate professor of law and strategy at Central European University.

https://www.politico.eu/article/why-grumpy-old-men-will-save-politics/

 

The dramatic return to national politics of Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister and European Council president, adds to a growing worldwide trend: veteran insiders throwing their hats back in the ring to challenge right-wing authoritarians.

 

In addition to Tusk, who announced on Saturday that he would lead the charge against Poland’s Law and Justice Party, other recent examples include Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is taking on the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, and U.S. President Joe Biden, who ejected Donald Trump from the White House.

 

While each of these comebacks is woven into its distinct national context, there are some commonalities as to why these veteran politicians may be particularly well suited to overthrow right-wing rulers.

 

To begin with, leaders like Tusk, Lula and Biden are well positioned to puncture the “invincibility myth” that surrounds many right-wing populists. That aura of being unbeatable — and concomitant narrative about the democratic opposition’s incorrigible weakness — is a key part of an autocrat’s political strategy.

 

In countries like Hungary, Turkey and Russia, where right-wing regimes are entrenched, state apparatuses keep busy making sure the on-the-ground reality matches this narrative. Politicized judiciary and law enforcement, state-controlled media and the “mafia state” of regime-friendly business networks are all laser-focused on making the formation of a viable and unified opposition all but impossible.

 

So who better to break this vicious cycle of self-fulfilling inevitability than a former president, vice president or prime minister — all with the proven ability to win tough elections?

 

Moreover, elder statesmen could, paradoxically, be even more eager to take bold steps than their younger counterparts in the liberal camp. While younger leaders may inevitably be prone to weighing the risks to their political careers for multiple election cycles down the road, veterans benefit from an immediacy of focus, doing whatever it takes, here and now.

 

“We are entering the field to fight this evil,” Tusk bluntly announced in his Saturday address to his liberal Civic Platform party congress. The 75-year-old Lula, currently the frontrunner for next year’s presidential ballot in Brazil, struck a similar note of preparedness, stating, “I usually run 9 kilometers a day, Monday to Friday … I need to get my legs ready to fix this country’s problems.”

 

Putting such promises directly into practice, the early days of Biden’s presidency were marked by an immediate flurry of activity aimed at dismantling Trump’s policies. Add to that a stunningly ambitious $1.9-trillion stimulus bill and serious headway on a host of other decidedly progressive policy measures, and Biden proves that there may be more than just political rhetoric to these statements.

 

The bold return of these veteran insiders should be welcomed. Playing a long game in a dying democracy can be disastrously misguided. A quick comparative timeline of such democracies — Brazil (two and a half years since the autocratic takeover), the U.S. (four years, at the end of Trump’s presidency), Poland (five years), Hungary (11 years), Turkey (18 years), Russia (22 years) — shows that the realistic ability to oppose the ruling regime diminishes with every day that democrats wait for “a better moment.”

 

Which raises an important final point: The allure of veteran insiders is, in part, a sign of the weakness in the younger generation of liberal politicians, who have been heavily influenced by the success of politicians like former U.S. President Barack Obama, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and French President Emmanuel Macron.

 

The trouble is that while the Obama-Trudeau-Macron archetype seems to work well in normal democratic politics, there is reason to believe it may be less productive during times of consolidating autocracy.

 

Take Poland, for example. Since PiS’s 2015 victory, the country saw three promising but ultimately unsuccessful attempts to mimic this political model: Robert Biedroń, the openly gay mayor of the mid-sized town of Słupsk was — like Obama — an aspirational “first” and a challenger to the conservative glass ceiling. Szymon Hołownia, a liberal Catholic TV star, had built a large following by using his high levels of social media savvy. And Rafał Trzaskowski, the telegenic mayor of Warsaw who narrowly lost to PiS’s Andrzej Duda in last year’s presidential election, presented himself as a bookish, Oxford-educated polyglot, embodying the Western aspirations of Poland’s progressive society.

 

One of the reasons these challenges didn’t succeed is because, to a large extent, they’re playing the authoritarians at their own game — offering voters a similarly heroic story, just on the progressive side. When it comes to dislodging authoritarians obsessively focused on their own narratives, it’s perhaps no surprise that more empathetic challengers will have better luck. This is especially true in the current political context, marked by the uncertainty and trauma of the pandemic. Politicians who don’t have to prove themselves can focus on the voters, their fears and their needs — which is why the ruling party in Poland should be very worried by Tusk’s return.