If
there is another economic crash, Europe’s far right is ready for it
Owen Jones
History
should be warning enough: the left must prepare a coherent
alternative to the slash and burn of austerity – and fast
The last economic
crisis never ended, and another one may loom. Europeans have endured
years of unemployment and underemployment, stagnating or falling
living standards, and cuts to state services on a scale ranging from
steep to decimation. The disintegration of Syria has sent a tidal
wave of human misery crashing over the country’s borders, some of
it lapping on the shores of the European continent. And already the
populist, anti-immigration right is in a strong position, from Sweden
to France, Greece to the Netherlands. So when Greece’s motorcycling
former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis warns that Europe could be
falling into “a modern 1930s”, it is time to sit up, listen –
and prepare.
Anybody can predict
the next economic crisis and go on to claim vindication, but here is
what we know. We never got over the last crisis: we remain in the
aftermath, a lost decade, and governments will have far more limited
options if another meltdown happens. In the eurozone – where
membership of a single currency leaves less room for manoeuvre, and
years of spending cuts have meant extensive social and economic
devastation – around one in 10 remain out of work. It is especially
bleak for the young: over a fifth are without work; in Greece and
Spain, the level remains nearly half; in Italy, nearly 38%; in
France, over a quarter. The “graduate without a future”, as
journalist Paul Mason describes them, is recognisable across the
continent: young people who find that the opportunities they expect
from education simply are not there. Poverty and hardship has become
the lot of an increasing number of Europeans: Oxfam found that there
were 7.5 million more Europeans in “severe material deprivation”
in 2013 compared with four years earlier.
And now the economic
ghosts of 2008 appear to be doing a comeback tour. Global growth has
become ever more dependent on a slowing Chinese economy. Fears mount
of a US recession, weakening European industrial production, and a
possible credit crisis in Europe’s banks. Pictures of panicking
traders, hands clasping fraught faces as markets tumble, add to a
sense of deja vu. Osbornomics has left Britain poorly prepared for
crisis, with weak wage growth meaning fewer tax receipts and
shrinking industrial production leaving us ever more dependent on the
City.
And who is waiting,
preparing and consolidating? Europe’s far right, already feeding
off the despair of economic crisis and a backlash against refugees
fleeing violence from the Middle East. Where once the principal
target was Jews, now it’s Muslims. Despite failing to achieve an
anticipated breakthrough in December’s regional elections, Marine
Le Pen’s far-right far-right Front National – combining
anti-immigration politics with an audacious raid on the economic
rhetoric of the left – won nearly 7m votes in France. Even if their
leader Marine Le Pen is mercifully unlikely – in the current
political climate, at least – to win a presidential election, it is
distinctly possible she could top the first round.
In Sweden, the
far-right Swedish Democrats – a party with neo-Nazi origins –
occasionally leads opinion polls, regularly receiving the support of
nearly a fifth of the electorate. Here is a party whose leader once
denounced the growth of Islam as “our greatest foreign threat since
world war two”. In Finland – already stricken by recession –
the hard-right Finns party is already in government. The Northern
League is surging in Italy; its leader, Lica Zaia, has demanded the
razing of Roma settlements, and last year, after becoming governor of
Veneto, he demanded the expulsion of African migrants. While the
far-right Freedom party – whose former leader Jörg Haider was
accused of Nazi sympathies – failed to win Vienna in elections last
year, it scored a record result.
Polls in the
Netherlands suggest a party led by Geert Wilders – who, like Donald
Trump, wants Muslim immigration stopped to prevent an “Islamic
invasion”– is on course to come top in a general election. In
austerity-ravaged Greece, the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn terrorises
immigrants. Even in Germany – which, in the postwar period, has
resisted the rise of the far right – the populist hard-right
Alternative für Deutschland has growing support.
And so it falls to
the left to offer an alternative outlet. It is possible. Spain has
been hammered more than most, but so far has not endured the rise of
a similar, far-right anti-immigration party. Instead, popular
discontent has been funnelled in the direction of Podemos, a
progressive party arguing for an alternative to austerity.
Podemos has
flourished thanks to movements that have organised in local
communities, such as the anti-eviction movement. But its approach to
communication is worth understanding, too. Eschewing the traditional
symbols and language of the left, even resisting talking in the
language of “left” versus “right”, it has appealed way beyond
the traditional leftist comfort zone. It has appealed to a younger
generation in despair. The message is one of relentless optimism and
hope. Podemos is resolutely patriotic in approach, redefining
patriotism as defending the interests of the majority against the
elite and ridding the country of injustice.
The left –
including the British left – has a lot to learn. A convincing,
coherent alternative to slash-and-burn economics, not least if
another economic crisis is on the way, is desperately needed too. But
there should be much greater urgency in leftwing ranks, for the far
right is stronger, better organised, and well-positioned to benefit
from any impending crises. The history of Europe should be warning
enough. Time to prepare, and quick.
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