Costa’s moment of truth

 

Costa’s moment of truth

By Gerardo Fortuna

October 15, 2026 6:21 am CET

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/costas-moment-of-truth/

 

By GERARDO FORTUNA

with GREGORIO SORGI and MAX GRIERA

CIAO THERE. Gerardo Fortuna back with you, wishing a happy European Council Day to all who celebrate. I’ll be spending the first part of mine recovering from Brussels Oktoberfest — full dispatch below.

 

DRIVING THE DAY       

COSTA’S BIG TEST: Nearly two years into the job, European Council chief António Costa will today face the biggest test of his presidency yet, Gregorio Sorgi reports.  

Taking over negotiations between squabbling governments on the EU’s next seven-year budget at today’s leaders’ summit in Brussels, Costa is determined to secure a deal by the end of the year. That would not only avoid the messiness of all the high-profile national elections next year — it would also enable him to show off a clear victory before potentially securing a second term.  

“It’s impossible to have a new budget [from] Jan. 1, 2028, if you don’t approve this budget by the end of this year,” Costa told reporters yesterday. Failure to reach a deal would lead to an investment shortfall and stymie Europe’s capacity to defend itself, he said.

If only it were that easy … At a private meeting recently, officials could barely conceal their laughter when told that an end-of-year budget deal was possible, according to a senior EU diplomat who was granted anonymity to speak frankly about the fraught conversations.

Messy domestic politics is getting in the way of Costa’s plan. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who is running for re-election and under pressure from angry regions and farmers, told MPs on Wednesday that “we will sign an agreement only when it is right for Italy.”

Ominously for Costa’s ambitions — and for today’s summit — Italy, France and others have already watered down a commitment to secure a deal by the end of the year, according to draft conclusions for the meeting seen by Playbook.

Berlin and Paris are key to resolving the deadlock, but Friedrich Merz and Emmanuel Macron are hamstrung by weak political positions at home, as my colleagues Nick Vinocur, Giorgio Leali and Clea Caulcutt report. (The front-runner to succeed Macron, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, piled on the pressure in Brussels last night, telling reporters that the attempt to speed up the budget talks is a “democratic scandal.”)

Costa’s timeline is also imperiled by an election in Spain on Nov. 29, which polls suggest Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is on track to lose. The Spanish vote adds uncertainty to a special EU summit on the budget that is provisionally scheduled for Nov. 26. “It will probably take place,” a senior EU official said. “We will have to then see what will be on the table.”

So what could delays mean? From today, leaders will start knocking on Costa’s door to save their pet projects. “The more time passes, the more it plays into the hands of those pushing for cuts,” said a senior EU diplomat.

Today’s discussion will signal how far leaders are from a landing zone — especially on the tricky issue of EU-wide taxes, known as own resources, to finance the budget.

The toughest fight will be over the figures presented by Ireland, which has steered the talks over the past four months under its rotating presidency of the Council of the EU. Dublin has floated major reductions to the European Commission’s budget proposal.

FOLLOW THE ACTION TODAY: Our team at the summit will keep you updated through the day in our live blog.