Reform UK takes a tumble in the polls

 

Reform UK takes a tumble in the polls

Reform UK has dropped to third place in national polling for the first time since the general election, falling behind both Labour and the Conservatives. Data from a recent YouGov poll shows Labour leading at 24%, the Conservatives rising to 23%, and Reform UK sliding to 21%.

Political analysts attribute this downward trend to a mix of shifting policy positions, internal controversies, and a resurging Conservative party.

Key Drivers Behind the Decline

• Donation Scandals & Police Investigations: The Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation into allegations that Reform UK breached party funding rules regarding foreign donations. The controversy overshadowed the party's autumn conference and forced the high-profile resignations of Farage's chief of staff, Dan Jukes, and policy director, James Orr.
• Farage’s Record-Low Popularity: Party leader Nigel Farage’s personal favorability has hit an all-time low. A YouGov tracking poll revealed that 57% of Britons view him very unfavourably, bringing his net favorability rating down to -45. He is also facing an investigation by Parliament's standards commissioner regarding an undeclared £5 million gift from a crypto billionaire.
• The "Badenoch Bounce" for the Tories: The Conservatives have successfully clawed back support following a well-received party conference speech by Kemi Badenoch, where her pledge to abolish inheritance tax on family homes helped pull traditional conservative voters back to the party.
• Policy Alienation: Recent pivots on policy—including highly controversial proposals to deport individuals with indefinite leave to remain if they do not meet certain income thresholds—have alienated segments of Reform's core voter base. [

Current Polling Overview

Multiple polling agencies, including YouGov and More in Common, show similar figures indicating a tightening three-way race where the anti-Reform tactical vote is growing stronger.