Trump’s War in Iran, and Rising Gas Prices, Collide With Midterm Agenda

 

Trump’s War in Iran, and Rising Gas Prices, Collide With Midterm Agenda

 

The attack on Iran has led to a surge in energy prices at a moment when the cost of living is a major issue heading into the fall elections.

 

Tyler Pager

By Tyler Pager

Reporting from Washington

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/us/politics/trump-iran-gas-prices-gop-agenda.html

March 9, 2026

 

President Trump sought to dismiss concerns about rising gas prices from his war in Iran, contending that the price spike “doesn’t really affect us” even as some Republicans fear that soaring costs are undercutting their economic argument heading into the November elections.

 

Mr. Trump, speaking in Florida on Monday, said that prices were “artificially up” because of the war and vowed that they would drop again after it ended. But the president offered no clear timeline of when that would happen, even as he bragged that the United States was far ahead of its timeline.

 

Mr. Trump’s economic message on Iran so far boils down to the idea that any pain is short-term, worthwhile and not as bad as he initially thought it would be. But for Republicans in tight midterm races, the knock-on effects of the war — and Mr. Trump’s so-far vague assurances about the economy — are still open questions.

 

The conflict has sent the price of gasoline surging, and it reached $3.48 a gallon on Monday, nearly a 17 percent increase since the war began on Feb. 28. World leaders are preparing for far-reaching repercussions, and in private some Republicans lawmakers are growing resigned to the harsh political realities that confront the party in power when prices rise sharply.

 

Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the Republican majority leader, told reporters on Monday that “the price of gas is always kind of a benchmark.”

 

“I do think the fact that we’ve increased our supply here domestically will help ease it, but it’s something obviously we’ve got to pay attention to,” he said.

 

He later added that he was “always concerned about the price of oil, the price of gasoline.”

 

The White House hoped it would not be this way. Just before Mr. Trump’s State of the Union address last month, the president’s top White House aides, most of his cabinet and other political advisers met at the Capitol Hill Club for a midterm strategy session in which they insisted that efforts to reduce the cost of living must be central to the party’s pitch to voters.

 

In his State of the Union speech, Mr. Trump declared that “the roaring economy is roaring like never before.” As he listed a flurry of data points to make his case, Mr. Trump lingered on one of his favorites: gas prices.

 

“Gasoline, which reached a peak of over $6 a gallon in some states under my predecessor — it was quite honestly a disaster — is now below $2.30 a gallon in most states,” he said. “And in some places, $1.99 a gallon. And when I visited the great state of Iowa just a few weeks ago, I even saw $1.85 a gallon for gasoline.”

 

The landscape a few weeks later is vastly different. Now Mr. Trump, who has long used high gas prices as a cudgel against his political opponents, is arguing that Americans need to accept the short-term pain.

 

“Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace,” he wrote on social media on Sunday. “ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!”

 

Still, Mr. Trump is adapting his message. On Monday, while bragging about his economic accomplishments to a meeting of House Republicans in Doral, Fla., he made no mention of gas prices. Before the war, he almost always cited falling gas prices as evidence of his economic success. Instead, he focused on the stock market setting records under his watch.

 

“It’s going to go a lot higher,” he said of the stock market before nodding to the impact the war is having on the economy. “As soon as we get rid of this stuff that we’re doing right now — that we really had no choice.”

 

Mr. Trump’s aides and allies know that rising gas prices are a potent political force, and inside the administration, officials are assessing options to lower the cost of gas. White House officials declined to comment on what actions the president is considering.

 

“President Trump has been clear that these are short-term disruptions and that Americans will see oil and gas prices drop rapidly again once the necessary objectives of Operation Epic Fury have been achieved and the regime’s capabilities are neutralized,” Taylor Rogers, a White House spokeswoman, said in a statement, using the Defense Department’s name for the military campaign in Iran.

 

Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic minority leader, called on Mr. Trump to “immediately” release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help bring down prices.

 

Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, a Republican who is not running for re-election, said that Mr. Trump had made strides with the economy but that there was work to do because many Americans are still feeling pain. The war, he said, will stymie some of that progress.

 

“I think it should be expected that when you have war with Iran, this is going to happen,” he said of rising prices. “The real question is how long is this going to go on.”

 

Experts say Americans can expect that prices will continue to be high as long as the war goes on.

 

Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, a company that tracks fuel prices, said he had been surprised by the seeming absence of a plan from the administration to lower gas prices and the lack of outreach to experts and analysts eager to assist.

 

 

Previous administrations, he said, sought out advice or briefed analysts on steps they were taking to alleviate rising gas prices.

 

“There is a pretty intense fever pitch of Americans growing increasingly alarmed at the pace of increases,” Mr. De Haan said. “Americans today are going to spend $200 million more a day on gasoline than they were eight days ago. That number will continue to grow.”

 

Presidents of both parties have found their political prospects deeply intertwined with gas prices.

 

Ron Klain, who served as President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s chief of staff, was so concerned that he checked gas prices every day as a gauge for consumer sentiment.

 

Sarah Bianchi, a senior managing director at Evercore ISI and a former top trade official in the Biden administration, said: “It’s surprising they went into this without a bit more of a plan with what they were going to do. They seem to be scrambling on this topic, and it can be hard to move the needle.”

 

Reporting was contributed by Michael Gold from Doral, Fla., and Carl Hulse and Megan Mineiro from Washington.

 

Tyler Pager is a White House correspondent for The Times, covering President Trump and his administration.