As of March 8, 2026, the European Commission reports that the war in Iran has not yet triggered a "noticeable exodus" of refugees toward Europe.

 

Will the Iran War bring a new golf of migrants to Europe?

As of March 8, 2026, the European Commission reports that the war in Iran has not yet triggered a "noticeable exodus" of refugees toward Europe. While the conflict has caused significant internal displacement and tens of thousands have reportedly fled Tehran, most movements remain within the region.

 

However, European leaders and the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) remain highly concerned about a potential future wave of migration for several reasons:

Magnitude of Potential Displacement: The EUAA has warned that even a "partial destabilization" of Iran—a country of 90 million people—could cause refugee movements of an "unprecedented magnitude". It is estimated that if just 10% of the population were displaced, it would rival the largest refugee flows of recent decades.

Transit through Turkey: Turkey is the primary transit country for migrants heading from Iran to Europe. While Turkish officials have currently assured the EU that they have "closed their borders towards Iran," experts suggest that a prolonged conflict could eventually overwhelm these controls.

Host to Existing Refugees: Iran already hosts roughly 3.8 million Afghan refugees. Instability in Iran may force these populations, along with Iranian citizens, to seek safety in neighboring countries or further afield in Europe.

Economic Collapse: Analysts warn that the war's impact on energy markets and the domestic Iranian economy could drive millions more to consider leaving the region in the long term.

European governments are currently focusing on humanitarian preparedness and increased funding for regional support programs to assist displaced populations closer to their homes, hoping to prevent a repeat of the 2015 migration crisis.