Le Pen’s
far right eyes local elections as launchpad for French presidential bid
The
National Rally’s strong polling numbers don’t guarantee victory.
It’s time
for Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella to prove they can win big.
March 9,
2026 4:00 am CET
By Victor
Goury-Laffont
PARIS —
It’s time for Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella to prove they can win big.
The
far-right National Rally is under pressure to score a decisive victory in
municipal elections across France that begin on Sunday, as the contest is
widely seen as test of the anti-immigration party’s electability ahead of the
high-stakes presidential race next year.
“The
political shift begins in town halls,” Bardella said on the campaign trail last
month in the small southern town of Carcassonne, famed for its medieval
citadel. “The National Rally can win a number of municipalities, and this is
obviously another step toward coming to power.”
But the
far-right party’s strong polling numbers don’t guarantee victory.
Municipal
contests are usually driven by hyper-local personalities and issues. That means
the national and Europe-wide political trends that fueled the rise of the right
won’t necessarily translate at the ballot box.
And
France’s two-round electoral system has historically worked against Le Pen’s
troops, as ad hoc alliances come together before the runoff to block far-right
candidates. That’s what happened in the 2024 snap elections: The National Rally
was considered a favorite, but a coalition of left-wing parties teamed up to
emerge as eventual victors.
Still,
this time, National Rally operatives fancy their chances.
Infighting
between centrists and the political left may prevent them from working together
in the second round to form the “Republican Front” — the name given to the
strategy where centrists and the left cooperate against the far right by
withdrawing candidates to avoid splitting the vote.
“The
Republican Front is already a myth,” said a high-ranking National Rally
official granted anonymity to speak candidly.
“We’ve only grown more powerful with each passing election.”
Polls
show the National Rally and its allies have a shot at winning in Marseille and
Nice, two of France’s biggest cities. Both are far more populous than the
current biggest metropolis governed by the party, Perpignan.
Mid-size
cities Nîmes and Toulon are in play as well.
The race
to lead Toulon carries particular significance given the Mediterranean port
city elected a far-right mayor, Jean-Marie Le Chevallier, in the mid-1990s, and
remains the most populous city ever to put the party in charge. But Le
Chevallier’s tenure was largely seen as a failure and he scored fewer than 8
percent of the vote when he ran for reelection.
The race
to lead Toulon carries particular significance given the Mediterranean port
city elected a far-right mayor, Jean-Marie Le Chevallier, in the mid-1990s. |
Veronique Tournier/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images
Marc
Bayle, a former regional politician and expert in Toulon’s politics, said the
Le Chevallier administration still carries “an image of incompetence and
disorganization” that impacts how voters there view the far right.
So
despite strong scores in Toulon during national elections, the National Rally’s
candidate there — party spokesperson Laure Lavalette — is not using the party’s
name while campaigning. Instead she’s promoting herself as a local candidate
with cross-partisan support.
“For
political commentators and voters with a longer political memory, the National
Rally’s past experiences in power are important … But for a new group of
National Rally voters, it doesn’t matter as much,” said Chloé Alexandre, a
research analyst for French pollster Vérian and the author of a report on the
National Rally’s municipal campaign.
Alexandre
said polling tends “to show that the National Rally is increasingly seen as a
party that could succeed in power.”
The
stakes are high.
If the
National Rally fails in cities where its presidential polling is strong, it
would reinforce the perception that the far right faces a glass ceiling
preventing its political ascendance. Alexandre said it could demoralize the
party faithful or reinforce the belief that the system is stacked against the
National Rally.
Party
spokesperson Aleksandar Nikolic is more sanguine.
“From
2022 to 2024, we jumped from 8 to 142 seats, so if there is a glass ceiling,
it’s already been raised a lot,” Nikolic said.
Whether
it has been shattered is another question. This month’s elections will offer
the clearest answer yet.
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