Some
leaders see powerful argument for renewable energy as Iran war shakes markets
World Mar
9, 2026 2:34 PM EDT
World
leaders have tried and failed to curb climate change by appealing to nations to
act for the common good. Now, the Iran war and its costly energy crunch have
some experts wondering if selfishness and nationalism may be a more likely way
to save the planet, by boosting support for homegrown renewables over imported
fossil fuels.
Bombed
refineries, disrupted shipping channels for oil and liquefied natural gas and
skyrocketing fuel prices should point even the most reluctant leaders to a
cleaner fossil free future, hope some experts.
But
others are dismissive, noting the same speculation emerged, and then quickly
flopped, as recently as Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That prompted some
European nations to replace gas with even dirtier coal.
"Just
wishful thinking," said Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson,
who tracks global emissions of carbon dioxide.
The head
of the United Nations will argue otherwise on Monday.
"The
turmoil we are witnessing today in the Middle East makes it evident that we are
facing a global energy system largely tied to fossil fuels — where supply is
concentrated in a few regions and every conflict risks sending shock waves
through the global economy," U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said
in an email to The Associated Press. "In past oil shocks, countries had
little choice but to absorb the pain. Now they have an exit ramp.
"Homegrown
renewable energy has never been cheaper, more accessible, or more
scalable," Guterres said. "The resources of the clean energy era
cannot be blockaded or weaponized."
Going
alone versus together
Annual
U.N. climate conferences aimed at global cooperation have accomplished little.
The most recent meeting in Brazil, known as COP30, ended with a statement that
didn't even mention the words "fossil fuels," much less include a
timeline to reduce their use. Guterres said then that he "cannot pretend
that COP30 has delivered everything that is needed." Under President
Donald Trump, whose attack on Iran has sparked new energy concerns, the U.S.
didn't even participate in the Brazil meeting.
Even
though renewable energy use and new installations are soaring globally,
outpacing fossil fuel growth, the world continues to increase its fossil fuel
use every year with emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide and methane
rising to new highs year after. That's driving atmospheric warming that
increases costly and deadly extreme weather, including dangerous heat, around
the world.
"The
bottom line is that for at least another five years and maybe longer, emissions
reduction will in fact be dealt with largely unilaterally," said Michael
Oppenheimer, a Princeton climate and international affairs professor. "If
countries see the Israel-U.S.-Iran war as a further reason to head for the
exits on fossil fuels by loosening domestic opposition to the necessary
policies, that will be accomplished unilaterally at the domestic level."
A moment
of opportunity may be here
Caroline
Baxter, director of the Converging Risks Lab at the Council on Strategic Risks
in Washington, said there has already been a "dramatic slowdown" in
the movement of fossil fuels to various ports due to the conflict. And for
countries like Japan or South Korea that depend on tankers arriving in their
ports to deliver energy, this is a really big deal, she said.
Baxter
said she "wouldn't be surprised" if some shift to green energy
because of the conflict, if only because renewable energy offers more stability
than fossil fuels do.
"I
think there is an opportunity, rightly or wrongly, for countries to really turn
inward and try to power themselves in a way that cuts off their dependence on
other nations for that source," said Baxter, who was U.S. deputy assistant
secretary of defense for force education and training from 2021 to 2024 under
the Biden administration.
Baxter
said if she's right and if "everyone does it in their backyard," it
will limit future climate change "without the thorny diplomatic
negotiations and the glad-handing and the machinations behind closed
doors" of international climate conferences.
The war
will lead to more solar panels and heat pumps installed in coming months, said
energy analyst Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, of IEEFA Europe.
A reality
check from Ukraine: 'Exactly the wrong lesson'
More
skeptical analysts point to the Russian invasion of Ukraine a few years ago,
which put a massive kink in Europe's natural gas supply, yet didn't change the
world's fossil fuel dependence. Politicians often pivot to other fossil fuels
to address war-oriented energy insecurity, such as coal, which releases even
higher amounts of heat-trapping gases.
"We
have seen this at the European level where actors post-2022 slowly wanted to
move away from the energy transition which is exactly the wrong lesson,"
said war studies lecturer Pauline Heinrichs at King's College in the United
Kingdom.
Just as
Europe did then, many countries, like China and India — already the world's No.
1 and No. 3 carbon-emitting countries — could turn to more coal use, said Ohio
University's Geoff Dabelko, an expert on climate and conflict, and University
of St. Andrews' Neta Crawford, author of "The Pentagon, Climate Change,
and War: Charting the Rise and Fall of U.S. Military Emissions."
War and
militaries pollute the air
Whatever
happens with nations' energy choices, the war itself will spike emissions.
Even
before it began, reports showed that the world's militaries are responsible for
5.5% of Earth's heat-trapping emissions each year, more than any country except
China, the United States and India.
Crawford,
co-founder of the Costs of War project at Brown University's Watson Institute
for International and Public Affairs, said fighter jets consuming vast
quantities of fuel, releasing carbon dioxide and other pollutants, is just one
example.
"The
consequences of war on emissions will far exceed any incremental offset in
emissions due to increased enthusiasm for a green transition," she said.
Borenstein reported from Washington and
McDermott from Providence, Rhode Island.
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