From elation to frustration: Trump snub wrongfoots Venezuela’s opposition
Some
supporters of María Corina Machado still see path to power after US president
refused to back her
Tom
Phillips in Cúcuta and Sam Jones in Madrid
Tue 6 Jan
2026 12.03 GMT
There was
unbridled joy among members of Venezuela’s opposition on Saturday morning as
their country’s president, Nicolás Maduro, was dragged into US custody after an
audacious raid on his compound. “The military strategy was brilliant,” Ricardo
Hausmann, a former minister and opposition supporter, said of the deadly
nocturnal assault during which dozens of Maduro’s guards – but not a single US
soldier – were reportedly killed.
That
elation was short-lived. Hours after Donald Trump announced Maduro’s capture
during Operation Absolute Resolve, the US president dashed opposition hopes
that their leader, the conservative activist María Corina Machado, would now be
able to return home to inaugurate a new democratic era.
“I think
it would be very tough for her to be the leader,” Trump announced at
Mar-a-Lago, claiming Machado lacked sufficient “respect” within Venezuela.
Instead, Trump signalled he would recognise Maduro’s vice-president, Delcy
Rodríguez, and he later warned she would pay “a very high price” if she did not
toe the US line and “do what’s right” by opening Venezuela’s vast oil reserves
to American companies.
“[I felt]
astonished, I could not believe what I was hearing,” Hausmann said, capturing
the opposition confusion and frustration that their movement’s leader appeared
to have been unexpectedly cast aside by the White House.
“The
political strategy that Trump and Marco Rubio have laid out is truly bizarre,”
Hausmann added, warning that post-Maduro Venezuela found itself in “a legal and
a political vacuum” and still under the control of “illegitimate leaders” led
by Rodríguez, who was sworn in as interim president on Monday.
One US
official told the New York Times: “[Rodríguez is] certainly someone we think we
can work at a much more professional level than we were able to do with
[Maduro].”
Machado,
whose movement is widely believed to have beaten Maduro in Venezuela’s 2024
presidential election, sought to put a brave face on the situation on Monday,
hailing Trump’s “courageous vision” and offering to share her Nobel peace prize
with him during an interview with Fox News.
“[Maduro’s
removal] is a huge step for humanity,” said Machado, who has not returned to
Venezuela since sneaking out to travel to Oslo last month to receive the Nobel
prize.
But
analysts said opposition leaders were bitterly disappointed by Trump’s decision
not to back Machado and Edmundo González, a former diplomat who ran in the 2024
election on Machado’s behalf after she was banned and who is widely believed to
have won by a landslide.
“[If I
was Machado] I’d be feeling abandoned, I’d be feeling like I’d been left out
there to twist in the wind, I’d be feeling insulted,” said Christopher
Sabatini, a Latin America specialist at Chatham House.
David
Smilde, a Venezuela expert at Tulane University, said the opposition had hoped
Maduro’s demise would pave the way for Machado and González to make a
triumphant return to Caracas to implement the result of the stolen 2024 vote.
“That always seemed like magical realism … It seemed fantastical and it
actually was … I don’t think Trump cares at all about democracy,” he said.
Pedro
Burelli, a prominent opposition figure who is close to Machado, rejected the
suggestion that Trump had thrown his ally under the bus. He insisted Trump
remained “200%” committed to helping Machado and González take power and
restoring democracy in Venezuela, despite the US president’s comments about
Machado lacking “respect”, which Burelli called “bizarre”.
“You eat
a whale a bite at a time,” Burelli said, predicting that the US campaign
against Maduro’s regime was not over and would continue even after his capture.
Those claiming Trump had ditched Machado “are going to be very surprised as
this thing continues to evolve”, he said.
“There is
a 100% understanding in the administration that the environment they want to
create for [Venezuelan migrants] to return to Venezuela … [and] to get
investments in Venezuela requires a democratic rule of law-based outcome. They
absolutely know that that comes from María Corina.”
Pedro
Antonio de Mendonça, a coordinator for the international arm of Machado’s Vente
Venezuela movement, was also adamant that despite Trump’s recognition of
Rodríguez, a political transition was under way that would lead to Machado and
González’s democratic mandate being fulfilled.
“It’s a
transition that has undeniably already begun because Maduro is no longer in
power and … transitions happen day by day,” de Mendonça said, comparing the
events of 3 January 2026 to those of 23 January 1958 when Venezuela woke up to
find that its dictator, Marcos Pérez Jiménez, had fled to the Dominican
Republic after an uprising.
“He
boarded a plane and at that moment people were asking themselves the same
question: what now? What’s going to happen? And many people had many plans,
many proposals, and, well, things unfolded, as we know. The same thing happened
here,” he said. “What I ask of the people – not only Venezuelans, but also
genuine democratic allies around the world – is to continue trusting in this
leadership.”
De
Mendonça said Rodríguez’s new administration was already mired in doubt and
suspicion. “We’re seeing deep divisions within the regime and a lot of distrust
because they don’t know who’s going to betray who,” he said. “Things are going
very badly for them. According to our information, they’re also seeing less
responsiveness from their own people in the armed forces, who aren’t even
returning their calls. They’re in a bad place.”
Many
experts voiced scepticism, while the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump
decided to back Rodríguez after being briefed by CIA analysts who had concluded
Machado and González “would struggle to gain legitimacy as leaders while facing
resistance from pro-regime security services, drug-trafficking networks and
political opponents”.
Sabatini
said: “[Opposition leaders] are clearly trying to put their best face forward
on this and believe that there’s a larger plan at play. But underneath this
all, of course, there’s deep disappointment.”
Smilde
sensed the opposition was now “bouncing back” from the weekend’s setback and
trying to figure out what to do next.
One hope
is that the US may push for a fresh election in the not too distant future,
which Machado should be well placed to win, although on Monday Trump poured
cold water on the idea that a vote could be held in the next 30 days.
Machado
told Fox News: “In free and fair elections we will win with over 90% of the
votes.”
Freddy
Guevara, another exiled opposition leader, admitted many opposition members
would have preferred to see more full-throated support for Machado and González
but said he believed that after Maduro’s exit Venezuela had entered “the
beginning of the end”.
“Politics
is very … complex and unpredictable. But I’m pretty sure that now we have way
more chances to get freedom than not … I think it’s an irreversible path,” he
said, anticipating that US pressure could lead to the release of political
prisoners and, eventually, free and fair elections.
For now though, Rodríguez is the person holding power. “We prioritise moving towards balanced and respectful international relations between the United States and Venezuela,” she wrote on Instagram in English. The full five-paragraph statement made only a passing reference to her in
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