Europe
hugs America close — despite Greenland fears
By
Nicholas Vinocur
January
6, 2026 7:00 am CET
Brussels
Playbook
By
NICHOLAS VINOCUR
GOOD
TUESDAY MORNING. This is Nick Vinocur.
DRIVING
THE DAY Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
UKRAINE
ALLIES HUDDLE IN FRANCE: Don’t mention Greenland. Donald Trump’s threats to
annex the Danish-held territory will hover over the room in Paris today as some
40 leaders and top EU officials gather for a meeting of the “coalition of the
willing” of Ukraine allies to hammer out security guarantees for Kyiv.
Keeping
up with Washington: Per an Elysée official, the meeting aims in particular to
deepen alignment between Ukraine, Europe and the United States on how to bring
an end to Russia’s war, with progress expected on defining exactly what
guarantees the allies will be able to provide, according to my Paris colleagues
Laura Kayali and Clea Caulcutt.
In that
context, America’s participation is crucial, the same official said. An EU
official argued that any attempt to shift the focus onto Greenland risked
stoking Trump’s ire.
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Indeed,
there was no mention of Trump’s threats against Greenland during the Elysée’s
pre-event briefing — despite the fact that Danish Prime Minister Mette
Frederiksen will be at the gathering and that she warned on Monday that any
American attack on the territory would spell instant death for NATO.
Strategic
silence: Keeping Greenland to one side may suit many Europeans, as well as the
Americans. With Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declaring at the end of
last year that Ukraine and the United States were “90 percent” of the way
toward a final peace proposal to present to Russia, Europeans are desperate to
avoid derailing the process — no matter what Trump says or does on Greenland.
(And there’s no sign of the White House backing down on that, with Trump
adviser Stephen Miller telling CNN overnight: “The real question is by what
right does Denmark assert control over Greenland? What is the basis of their
territorial claim?”)
“We have
strived to bring the Americans closer to us, never resigning ourselves to the
U.S. abandoning Ukraine,” said the Elysée official. “We have succeeded in this
exercise of reconvergence between Ukraine, Europe and America.”
Who’s
going: While Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio won’t attend this coalition
of the willing gathering, his special envoy Steve Witkoff will be there, along
with the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. So will a who’s who of heads of
state and government from countries that back Ukraine, as well as the top EU
officials — Ursula von der Leyen, António Costa and Kaja Kallas.
Also
joining are Zelenskyy, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and NATO
Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Even Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš — no fan
of supporting Ukraine — will be on site for the event, per a participant list
seen by Playbook. (Details of timings lower down in the email.)
The mood
is expectant. According to an EU official, participants are inching toward
agreement on “six or seven different papers” addressing different aspects of a
ceasefire and postwar framework. These include the 20-point peace plan
developed jointly by the EU and the U.S., a document on security guarantees and
another on economic prosperity. All will have to be signed off by all parties,
including Russia.
While the
documents aren’t expected to get a final stamp today, EU leaders may well
produce a joint statement addressing security guarantees.
In
detail: The Elysée official said the coalition wants to find common ground on
five points: How a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine would be monitored;
military support for Ukraine’s armed forces; the multinational “reassurance
force” in Ukraine for after the war; commitments to support Kyiv if a ceasefire
is violated by Moscow; and long-term defense cooperation deals with Ukraine.
The
French hope to lock in U.S. commitment to security guarantees, including a
much-hoped-for U.S. backstop. “We are finalizing the conference’s documents,”
not only on the principles of security guarantees but also on how operational
these will be, said the Elysée official. According to a U.K. official, a
statement could build on the one released in December after a summit in Berlin.
Don’t
spoil the party: The U.S. seizure of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro may
well come up on the sidelines, per a European diplomat who spoke to Clea. But
French President Emmanuel Macron does not want Venezuela to spoil the fragile
entente between Washington and the Europeans on Ukraine.
La
phrase: The files are “not related, or only distantly related,” said the same
official.
Step
back: European leaders and officials may well be relieved to avoid further
transatlantic static. The bloc has just finalized, with great difficulty, a
deal to lend €90 billion to Ukraine. Its main focus is to end the war in
Ukraine fairly and speedily. Greenland is an unwelcome distraction — one that
threatens to collapse the whole delicate structure.
The
College of Commissioners is expected to vote on the proposal to issue that loan
to Ukraine this month, a Commission spokesperson said on Monday. It’s also
planning to adopt in January a proposal setting out the conditions of the loan
and another on amending the rules on the EU’s long-term budget to allow
Brussels to issue loans to a third country, Zoya Sheftalovich writes in to
report.
So when
will Kyiv get the money? The first disbursement is still expected in the second
quarter of 2026 at the latest, per the spokesperson.
The
bottom line: Staying aligned with Washington on Ukraine trumps all other
priorities. Greenland, U.S. sanctions against EU officials — all of that takes
a back seat. For now.
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