Analysis
Republican
hawks vs Maga isolationists: the internal war that could decide Trump’s Iran
response
Andrew Roth
in
Washington
Trump could
decide to help Israel by joining the fight against Iran, or refrain from
involving the US in a new overseas war – either choice will upset his
supporters
Tue 17 Jun
2025 06.53 BST
As Donald
Trump considers a direct intervention in Israel’s conflict with Iran, another
war has broken out in Washington between conservative hawks, calling for
immediate US strikes on uranium enrichment facilities, and Maga isolationists,
who are demanding Trump stick to his campaign pledge not to involve the US in
new overseas wars.
At stake is
whether the US could target the mountain redoubt that is home to the Fordow
fuel enrichment plant, a key uranium enrichment site hidden 80 to 90 metres
underground that cannot be targeted directly by Israeli jets – although they
can attack some of the infrastructure that allows the plant to operate.
A direct
strike would require the US Air Force’s 30,000-pound class GBU-57/B massive
ordinance penetrators and the US B-2 Stealth Bombers capable of carrying them,
making Washington’s sign-on a key goal for Israeli officials.
“Mr Trump
posted on social media Sunday that ‘we can easily get a deal done’ to end the
war,” read a Wall Street Journal editorial this week. “But that prospect will
be more likely if he helps Israel finish the military job.
“If Mr Trump
won’t help on Fordow, Israel will need more time to achieve its strategic
goals,” it went on. “A neutral US means a longer war.”
Over the
weekend, the US began to move airborne refuelling tankers to Europe and ordered
a second carrier group, the USS Nimitz, to the Middle East, part of
preparations experts say would be necessary for the strike. The US does not
currently have B-2 bombers stationed in the region. A deployment of six stealth
bombers returned from the Diego Garcia airbase in the Indian Ocean to the US in
May.
“Trump’s
assembling the forces necessary to do the Fordow strike,” wrote Daniel Shapiro,
a former Pentagon official for Middle Eastern affairs and ex-ambassador to
Israel. “Tankers, fighters, and the second carrier. Doesn’t mean he has made
the decision to do it but he’s giving himself the option. Can that be leveraged
to get a major Iranian concession that pre-empts the need for it?”
Senior White
House officials have told US media that the refuelling tankers and other assets
have been sent to Europe to station them closer to the Middle East and to give
Trump “more options”.
As US forces
head to the region, Trump increased pressure on the Iranian government to cut a
deal. On Monday, he posted that Iran “should have signed the deal I told them
to sign” and reiterated that “IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON”.
“Everyone
should immediately evacuate Tehran!” he added, referring to a city of about 10
million people.
Other US
officials have sought to dampen speculation that the US is planning for an
offensive strike on Iran.
“Over the
weekend, I directed the deployment of additional capabilities to the United
States Central Command Area of Responsibility,” said the secretary of defense,
Pete Hegseth, in a statement. “Protecting US forces is our top priority and
these deployments are intended to enhance our defensive posture in there
region.”
Reports have
suggested that Trump is seeking last-minute talks this week between Iran and
his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
But the
escalating conflict – and America’s possible role in it – has already led to a
schism among vocal Trump supporters.
Some of
Trump’s most powerful allies, including his vice-president, JD Vance, have
called for the US to restrain itself from sending its troops to fight wars
overseas. Powerful pundits like Tucker Carlson have condemned the potential for
US involvement in a war in Iran.
Speaking on
a podcast, Carlson called out fellow media personalities as “warmongers” and
said that description “would include anyone who’s calling Donald Trump today to
demand airstrikes and other direct US military involvement in a war with Iran”.
Trump took
to social media to shout down Carlson, an influential ally and media
personality who played an important role in popularising his America First
platform.
“Somebody
please explain to kooky Tucker Carlson that IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR
WEAPON,” Trump shot back.
The schism
among Trump officials also runs through the Pentagon. Elbridge Colby, the
undersecretary of defense for policy, is among the most prominent of a group of
“prioritisers” who had hoped to focus US resources away from Europe and the
Middle East towards the growing threat from China. The Pentagon has denied
there are any disagreements on policy within the department.
Those close
to the group have said that traditional republicans such as Senator Tom Cotton,
as well as senior Pentagon officials like Centcom Gen Michael Erik Kurilla,
have continued to impress upon Trump the need for a more hawkish Iran policy.
Kurilla was
seen as especially influential in pushing for “Operation Rough Rider”, the
seven-week US campaign against the Houthis that was abruptly concluded after
burning through more than $1bn, thousands of bombs and missiles, seven UAVs
that were shot down and two fighter jets that sank after falling off carriers.
Asked last
week by the House armed services chair, Mike Rogers, whether US Central Command
(Centcom) was prepared to “respond with overwhelming force to prevent a
nuclear-armed Iran”, Kurilla responded: “Yes … I have provided the secretary of
defense and the president a wide range of options.”
With Trump
rushing back to Washington from a G7 meeting in Canada to an emergency national
security council meeting, the potential for a strike against Iran appeared as
high as at any time since the beginning of the crisis.
“What’s
happening here is some of the isolationist movement led by Tucker Carlson and
Steve Bannon are distressed we may be helping the Israelis defeat the
Iranians,” Mitch McConnell, the former Senate Republican leader, told CNN. “I
would say it’s been kind of a bad week for the isolationists.”
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