Europe
strains to give Trump an off-ramp on bombing Iran
Germany,
France and the U.K. prepare for talks with Iranian officials in Geneva. Can
they stop Trump joining Israel’s war?
The
11th-hour scramble is a final desperate attempt by European governments to find
a diplomatic way out of the week-long war between Israel and Iran. |
June 20,
2025 4:03 am CET
By Tim Ross,
Clea Caulcutt, Dan Bloom and Nette Nöstlinger
LONDON — Who
can stop the Iran war?
With Donald
Trump poised to order a bombing raid on Iran’s subterranean nuclear facilities
— and Israel urging him on — it seems unlikely that the answer could be three
European ministers and an Estonian politician with the title of EU high
representative for foreign affairs and security policy.
But the
foreign ministers of Germany, France and the U.K. — with Kaja Kallas, the
former Estonian leader in question — are expected to join emergency talks in
Geneva with representatives of Iran on Friday anyway.
The scramble
is part of a frantic effort by European governments to find a diplomatic way
out of the week-long war between Israel and Iran, before America turns it into
something they fear could become far bigger, and much worse.
On Thursday
Trump and his team gave European officials reasons to hope that their efforts
may not be futile. The White House announced Trump will decide within the next
two weeks whether to order U.S. military action as he believes “there’s a
substantial chance of negotiations.”
That longer
timeframe for Trump to make his decision appears to open the door to a renewed
diplomatic push, giving Friday’s talks in Switzerland potentially much more
weight.
Alongside
the EU’s Kallas, the foreign ministers of Germany and France are expected to
attend, with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy flying straight to Geneva
from talks with U.S. counterpart Marco Rubio in Washington. Representing Iran
will be Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
The question
is whether the Europeans can make meaningful progress.
Historic
weakness
The Iran
crisis vividly demonstrates how much Trump has neutered European geopolitical
influence over the past decade, even in areas where its interests might align
with those of America.
Back in
2015, these same European powers — the so-called E3 — played a major part in
striking the last Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA). But that was under Barack Obama’s administration, and Trump took
against the arrangement, pulling America out of it in 2018.
Ever since,
Europe has struggled to get its voice heard on questions relating to Iran.
EU powers
(and the U.K., too) have likewise failed to hold much sway over Benjamin
Netanyahu’s far-right government in Israel, especially since the Hamas attacks
of Oct. 7, 2023.
European
officials privately hope to give Trump the opportunity to take an off-ramp from
his current path toward military action. In recent days, the U.S. president has
threatened to kill the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and
announced he’s weighing up whether to use bunker-busting bombs to destroy
Iran’s underground uranium enrichment plants.
“There is
something that is holding Trump back,” one European diplomat said, speaking
anonymously, like others, to discuss highly sensitive matters. Trump said the
U.S. is ready to join Israel’s military strikes but “nothing is happening —
there’s an opportunity here.” The diplomat added: “We must not underestimate
how much Trump hates war.”
John Sawers,
former head of Britain’s foreign intelligence agency, MI6, said Trump would
have preferred Israel not to start a direct war with Iran at all. “There was an
opportunity here which President Trump didn’t really want them to take,” Sawers
told a conference hosted by the Chatham House think tank in London.
“It was only
a week ago that he was appealing to Israel to allow more time for his
negotiations, but Netanyahu brushed that aside, and Trump has basically fallen
in line with the Israeli approach.” Sawers said that now Israel had put the
world in the position of enraging Iran, it would be better for the U.S. to step
in to finish the job: “Get on with it and get it over with.”
Messaging
America
Other
well-connected officials and diplomats in the E3 don’t share that view, fearing
the conflict will spread into a full-scale regional war if the U.S. becomes
directly involved.
The aim of
resuming talks with Iran is to get a guarantee that Tehran will only use its
nuclear program for civilian purposes, according to one official from an E3
country. “That is exactly where we were with the negotiations … which have been
thrown off track because of Israeli activity,” the official said.
However, the
official predicted that any talks that take place on Friday would be unlikely
to come to a definitive conclusion, despite French President Emmanuel Macron
attempting to prove himself as the “peacemaker.”
The Geneva
meeting, assuming it goes ahead in this volatile context, will serve more as a
communications exercise, the person said. “Any meeting will be to get a message
from the Iranians to the Americans [about] their intentions regarding their
nuclear program,” the person said.
Donald Trump
has his own domestic reasons for keeping America out of the war. | Pool photo
by Ken Cedeno/EFE via EPA
The truth
is, it’s not Iran that needs convincing to stop the war right now, it’s Trump.
He has indicated in recent days that he is close to agreeing to Netanyahu’s
request to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, even if not yet endorsing calls
to enforce regime change in Tehran.
At a press
conference on Thursday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said the
Iranians had been “relatively clear” in their willingness to resume talks,
“including with the United States,” if there is a ceasefire.
“We stand
ready, as we have done in recent months and years, to present a formula
guaranteeing the security interests of Israel, the region and Europe, that
addresses at the same time Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missile
program, but also its regional destabilization activities,” Barrot said.
The French
clearly see an opportunity to serve as peacemakers between Iran and the U.S.
But
Europeans who want peace are in a direct conflict with Israel, which wants to
convince Trump to bomb Iran.
An Israeli
official set out what they want from European engagement with Iran in Geneva:
“We expect a clear and forceful message to the Iranians — dismantle nuclear
program in totality, dismantle surface-to-surface missile capabilities and stop
financing proxies and terror.”
Britain’s
Lammy flew to Washington for talks Thursday with Secretary of State Rubio,
potentially helping to bring that European perspective directly to the heart of
decision-making in D.C.
Rubio is
serving two roles, as America’s top diplomat but also Trump’s acting national
security adviser, after the president ousted Mike Waltz, and it’s not clear
even his advice will be decisive when it comes to what the president will do.
The
British-American relationship is more complex than the French, too, with U.K.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer trying to balance his instinctive desire to stay
close to the U.S. — including potentially offering military support for
military action — and to halt the conflict.
For those
who want to avert an escalation, there is another consideration. Trump has his
own domestic reasons for keeping America out of the war.
While some
more traditional Republicans are urging Trump to intervene, others in his MAGA
movement oppose foreign military exploits and do not see the reason for
deploying American assets in this case. He also promised not to take America
into more foreign wars and to be a peacemaker president.
The
prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough in Geneva still appear slim, though
there is now at least a window of time for potentially meaningful talks. It
would be ironic if the European alliance Trump did so much to weaken
inadvertently came to the aid of MAGA’s anti-war faction and gave him an excuse
not to drop bombs on Iran.
Clea
Caulcutt reported from Paris. Nette Nöstlinger reported from Berlin. Gabriel
Gavin and Nicholas Vinocur in Brussels, Josh Berlinger in Paris and Esther
Webber in London also contributed to this report.
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