‘A pause
before something worse’: Iranians wary of what future holds
From renewed
conflict to a resurgent regime, people tell of their fears, concerns … and a
glimmer of hope
Shah Meer
Baloch, Deepa Parent and Julian Borger
Tue 24 Jun
2025 18.49 BST
People from
the Tehran area said the hours of darkness before Donald Trump’s ceasefire took
hold were the most terrifying of the war as Israel intensified its bombardment.
“We felt
jets flying so low above our apartment that the windows shook. The bombing
intensified to a level I’ve never experienced before. People ran into the
streets, terrified and panicking,” said Mariam, 39, from the village of Kordan,
about 30 miles (50km) north-west of the capital. Like everyone quoted in this
article, she chose to use a pseudonym.
When
residents ventured out in the streets after the sun rose on Tuesday, their
first question was what kind of country the bombers had left in their wake.
“There’s a
silence now, like a pause in breath before something worse,” Mariam said. “We
live in a nightmare that won’t end. I’m scared, and I don’t know what tomorrow
will bring. I don’t know if the war will really end.”
Most of the
Iranians the Guardian talked to were pessimistic, fearing the regime would use
the war as a pretext for rolling back some of the liberties carved out by the
female-led resistance of the past few years.
“We had
neutralised the ideology of these people. They were culturally and in everyday
life bent to our will,” said Shirin, a middle-aged Tehrani woman. She was
referring to the fact that before the war the regime’s enforcers had for the
most part given up making women who did not want to wear the hijab.
The regime
had largely retreated from the private sphere of ordinary Iranians. Shirin was
worried it would now return with a vengeance. “They now can become as powerful
as they were 10 years ago,” she said.
In the
course of the war, Trump and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu,
made direct appeals to the Iranian people to rise up against their rulers. Such
appeals mostly fell flat, however, even among ardent opponents of Iran’s
theocratic establishment.
For many
Iranians, they were just two more angry old men telling them what to do.
“I do not
trust Trump. He changes his mind every few seconds. We Iranians deserve better
than people like him, Khamenei and Netanyahu who are deciding our fates,” said
Nazanin, 28, a Tehrani movie producer. “The whole time we were screaming that
we didn’t ask for this war.
“Today
they’re going to parade on the streets and all the people you will see in the
victory parade are just pro-regime hardliners. Now we will suffer the
consequences because a wounded regime will pounce on us like prey.”
The
authorities staged a “victory celebration” in the capital’s Enghelab, or
Revolution Square, on Tuesday night. Posters and online propaganda drew in part
on Persian folklore, and the image of Arash Kamangir or Arash the Archer, a
mythic hero who shot an arrow with superhuman strength. Where it landed marked
the border with a hostile neighbour.
Most
Tehranis also predicted the regime would try to galvanise support through the
special significance given to the holy month of Muharram, which begins on
Sunday, with its climax falling on its tenth day, Ashura, which in Shia Islam
is a day of remembrance and celebration of martyrdom.
“The regime
is expected to intensify its repression in various areas, including stricter
enforcement of mandatory hijab, following the ceasefire,” Mahdi, 42, from
Tehran, said. “During the month of Muharram, the government will likely
emphasise the culture of martyrdom even more.”
“The regime
will use it for its political gains and power,” he said.
Saeed, 23, a
student leader and activist, pointed to Tuesday’s festivities and the air of
triumphalism the authorities were trying to spread.
“The Islamic
Republic is already acting like it won the war, like the whole thing was just a
performance for Khamenei, Netanyahu, and Trump to inflate their egos,” he he
said.
Unlike most
people the Guardian spoke to, he did at least see a possible upside for
ordinary people. “The ceasefire gave us a bit of hope but also a lot to think
about,” he said. “The Islamic Republic’s shallow propaganda about ‘security’
has collapsed. The idea that they’ve always used as an excuse to suppress us is
now broken.
“One
possible gain from all this might be the space to build a real third way,
something beyond just Islamic Republic loyalists or monarchists, or regime
change activists who ignored us when we needed support most.
“Maybe we
can create movements that actually care about us, and about Iran as a whole
without having to choose between fascism and Islamo-fascism. But I also know
from history that it will be hard.”
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