She Won Over Italy. Now She’s Bringing Trumpism to Europe.

 

She Won Over Italy. Now She’s Bringing Trumpism to Europe.

Dec. 9, 2024, 1:00 a.m. ET

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/opinion/meloni-trump-europe.html

By Mattia Ferraresi

Mr. Ferraresi, a journalist who writes widely on Italy’s politics and society, wrote from Rome.

 

Unless Donald Trump decides to communicate with European allies solely in the acerbic language of tariffs, he will have to address the famous question usually attributed to Henry Kissinger: Who do I call when I want to talk to Europe?

 

For Mr. Trump, an America First president-elect whose affection for Europe seems to extend only to its golf courses, it’s not easy to answer. There’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, the most Trumpian character on the continent. Yet the autocratic Mr. Orban is a political pariah, constantly clashing with European Union institutions, and he leads a small country whose economic output is comparable with that of Kansas. Mr. Orban might be an ally. But he can’t do much to enlarge a Trumpist coalition in Europe, let alone shape policy in its image.

 

For that role, Mr. Trump should look elsewhere: to Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s post-fascist prime minister. According to people close to her, she is already positioning herself to act as a bridge between the incoming Trump administration and Europe’s leaders. After successfully cementing her rule in Italy, where she has balanced her authoritarian instincts with pragmatism, Ms. Meloni is clearly ready for her next task: bringing Trumpism into the heart of Europe.

 

The stars seem to be aligning in her favor. Ms. Meloni has been running the third-largest economy in the Eurozone for over two years, a remarkably long time by Italy’s standards, and remains reasonably popular. The continent, meanwhile, has been moving swiftly to the right. Far-right parties like the one Ms. Meloni leads are now involved in governments in seven E.U. countries and are on the rise almost everywhere, including in France and Germany.

 

At the international level, Ms. Meloni has proved herself to be a canny operator. To the surprise of critics, she has forged warm relationships with President Biden and the president of the E.U. Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. She’s at the helm of the European Conservatives and Reformists group — a relatively moderate force in the European Parliament, compared with the populist hard-liners, that includes the U.S. Republican Party in its global network — and has a reputation for skilled diplomacy. The recent appointment of one of her most trusted supporters as an executive vice president of the commission will surely deepen her influence in Brussels.

 

Ms. Meloni is rising as Europe’s major leaders appear to be falling. President Emmanuel Macron of France was already weakened by summer elections; the collapse  last week of a minority government he put together has dealt another major blow to his authority. Things for Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany are, if anything, worse: He is wildly unpopular and, after the fall of his government last month, facing elections his party is almost certain to lose. After Mr. Trump’s recent election, the two leaders urged “the European Union to stand close together and act in a united manner.” But there’s no sign they’ll be able to bring that about.

 

Ms. Meloni is well placed to profit from their weakness. Her advantages are many: She leads a founding E.U. member and a key NATO partner, with military bases facing the Middle East; she has built a strategically ambiguous profile and can play hardball nationalism or wrap herself in a European flag, as the circumstances require; and she’s a team player adept at navigating the shoals of Brussels. Taken together, she is set to become central to the bloc’s leadership.

 

It helps that she has an in with Elon Musk. Over the years, the two have cultivated a close relationship. Mr. Musk has visited Rome several times and spoke at a major conference for her party last year; in September, he presented Ms. Meloni with an award in New York, praising the “incredible job” she’s doing as prime minister. (Ironically, the two often chat on WhatsApp, the messaging app owned by his nemesis, Mark Zuckerberg, whom Mr. Musk once challenged to a cage fight in the Colosseum.) By affinity, circumstance and connection, Ms. Meloni is the perfect person to bring Trumpism to Europe.

 

What does that look like in practice? First and foremost, it involves pushing a hard line on immigration. On this issue, the European Union has shifted to the right in recent years, policing borders and hardening asylum rules. But Ms. Meloni has taken the anti-immigration stance to a new level with her proposal to use detention centers in Albania to check and eventually deport migrants before they even set foot on E.U. soil. Circumventing E.U. laws and projecting brutal toughness, this is exactly the kind of initiative that embodies the Trumpist spirit.

 

The Albania plan has been halted by the courts, on the grounds it contravenes humanitarian law. Yet that’s given Ms. Meloni a chance to advance another Trumpian goal — sowing distrust of the judiciary, cast as a malignant political body that unjustly stands in the way of government policy. Like Mr. Trump, Ms. Meloni regards judges as political opponents and regularly rails against the courts. From her position in the command center of Europe, she could chip away at the bloc’s foundational respect for the judicial process and the rule of law.

 

Lastly, there’s the war in Ukraine. This is the trickiest topic for Ms. Meloni, who has from the beginning of the conflict been an unwavering supporter of Ukraine and a staunch Atlanticist, often clashing with her coalition partners such as the openly pro-Russia League party. Recently, though, she has been softening this stance. She’s spoken about “Ukraine fatigue” and refused to allow Italian weapons to be used in Russian territory. Combined with her commitment to military spending, this could be a prelude to her supporting in Ukraine that most Trumpian of things: a deal.

 

Mr. Trump’s disdain for Europe is legendary. He reportedly vowed not to defend the continent if it’s attacked and recently referred to it as a “mini China” — about as far from a compliment from him it’s possible to get. Punishing tariffs and belligerent demands to spend more on security could soon make that antipathy manifest. But Europe is not what it was during Mr. Trump’s first term. Ms. Von der Leyen now leads the most right-wing European Commission in history and the bloc is shifting more and more toward conservative positions.

 

With Ms. Meloni leading the way, Mr. Trump might find there’s something he likes in Europe other than golf.

 

Mattia Ferraresi (@mattiaferraresi) is a staff writer for the Italian newspaper Domani.