Poland
takes EU baton as Tusk braces for pivotal presidential election
May’s vote
on Poland’s next head of state looms large over the country’s six-month EU
presidency, which starts Jan. 1.
By BARBARA
MOENS and WOJCIECH KOŚĆ
December 3,
2024 4:00 am CET
Polish Prime
Minister Donald Tusk will be laser-focused on a presidency in the first half of
next year — but it won’t be the one that allows Poland to shepherd legislation
through the Council of the European Union.
Instead, his
attention will be commandeered by the May Polish presidential election and the
critical task of ensuring a friendly successor to incumbent Andrzej Duda.
Duda, an
ally of the former governing Law and Justice (PiS) party, has missed few
opportunities to undermine Tusk’s credibility and popular support by preventing
his year-old government from carrying out much of its electoral program. He has
even refused to sign off on government candidates for ambassadors.
Tusk’s
centrist Civic Coalition still leads the nationalist PiS in the polls, but this
advantage may not last if the country elects another PiS-backed president who
continues to kneecap the Tusk government until the end of its term in 2027.
The election
comes as Tusk tries to deliver on promises made during last year’s campaign —
such as easing access to abortion or permitting civil partnerships regardless
of gender — while keeping his rainbow coalition with the Polish People’s Party,
Poland 2050 and The Left in line.
These
domestic pressures will constrain Poland in its six-month EU presidency
starting Jan. 1, said Piotr Buras, head of office at the European Council on
Foreign Relations in Warsaw. “The Polish government perceives this election as
absolutely fundamental for the country’s future. This is basically what matters
most for Tusk.”
One EU
diplomat said: “Member states and the Commission are concerned that the Polish
Council presidency will put national interests before European ones, like on
migration, trade, energy or climate protection.
“They are
not seen as an honest broker. It seems to be all about the [Polish]
presidential election.”
Warsaw,
however, downplayed the impact of the presidential election on its turn to set
the agenda in Brussels. “Poland will be [an] honest broker and the most
efficient presidency possible,” Poland’s EU Affairs Minister Adam Szłapka told
POLITICO. “Elections, including the presidential one in Poland, are a natural
part of democracies and won’t affect in any way our work in Brussels.”
Donald
Trump’s return as president of the United States in January — and in particular
his position on Ukraine — could prove a counterweight to domestic political
pressures and force Tusk to pay more attention to events in Brussels.
Together
with the Baltics, Poland has led the charge for the EU to provide more military
and financial support to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
Warsaw now fears that Trump’s much-touted peace deal could force Ukraine to
concede land to Russia, thereby emboldening Moscow’s geopolitical ambitions.
This will be
Tusk’s focus during Poland’s Council presidency, said Andrzej Bobinski,
managing director at Polish think tank Polityka Insight, and will require that
he “navigat[e] these difficult waters around Trump, Ukraine, and his leadership
in Europe.”
Polish
Minister Szłapka said his country’s priority for its presidency is “security in
its different dimensions, including [the] external and internal security of the
EU.”
“With
Putin’s war next door, among global tensions and internal challenges, it is
security of the Europeans that is the foundation and the uniting factor,” he
said.
The
question, however, will be how much Poland will (and wants to) move the needle.
Ever since
Tusk — a former president of the European Council — returned to the EU’s top
table last year, Brussels has hoped the Polish prime minister will work with
France and Germany to revalitize the EU.
But the trio
— known as the “Weimar Triangle” — has had only limited success since Tusk’s
return to power, partly because of his national preoccupations. While Tusk did
play a key role in securing Ursula von der Leyen a second mandate as president
of the European Commission, his European counterparts have often felt his
attention is divided. Meanwhile, Paris and Berlin have experienced their own
domestic chaos, with Germany now heading to the polls early next year.
“Will Tusk
now finally take up the gauntlet?” asked one EU official, who was granted
anonymity to discuss sensitive talks.
The Polish
representation to Brussels, not Warsaw, is more likely to drive action at the
EU level over the next six months, diplomats said.
“Tusk paints
politics in very broad strokes,” said Bobinski of Polityka Insight, adding he
doesn’t believe the Polish leader “will have the attention span and the will to
really go deep into Brussels politics.”
There are
also some policy elephants in the room.
Tusk’s
return toppled the nationalist-conservative PiS administration, which had sided
with Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán to thwart various EU agendas. While
the changing of the guard has returned Warsaw to the centrist, pro-European
camp, Poland still finds itself outside the general European consensus on more
delicate files such as EU climate policy.
Overall,
however, the bar for Poland’s presidency is relatively low following Hungary’s
inflammatory turn in the chair. The new European Commission will also still be
gearing up, with legislative proposals not expected to land until later in the
Polish presidency.
“They won’t
do much, but they also won’t disappoint much,” the EU official said.
Barbara
Moens reported from Brussels. Wojciech Kość reported from Warsaw. Dionisios
Sturis contributed reporting from Brussels.
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