Is Donald Trump about to wreck Brexit?

 

Is Donald Trump about to wreck Brexit?

 

The U.S. president-elect’s return to the world stage comes as Britain and the EU are resetting relations. Brussels sees an opportunity.

 

November 13, 2024 4:00 am CET

By Jon Stone

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-brexit-uk-us-politics-republican-government-trade-ukraine-nato-diplomat/

 

BRUSSELS — Donald Trump once called himself “Mr. Brexit.” But eight years on, could he be about to wreck it?

 

The president-elect’s America First trade policies make Britain’s attempted pivot to global free trade that bit tricker. His lukewarm attitude to Ukraine and NATO also has people on both sides of the Channel worried.

 

For many Brussels officials involved in shaping the relationship between the EU and U.K, last week’s U.S. election result means one thing: stronger ties between the somewhat estranged neighbors.

 

It may not be what the billionaire Republican politician had in mind — and in Britain, too, Brexiteers worry that the new U.S. president might end up pushing Britain into Brussels’ arms.

 

Conservative opposition leader Kemi Badenoch this week urged the government not to turn away from Washington, bemoaning that “Labour is not interested in anything except the EU.” She urged ministers to see beyond Trump’s rhetoric and invoke his “historic and familial links to the U.K.”

 

There’s certainly appetite for a closer relationship between the U.K. and Europe in Brussels. One EU official told POLITICO that Trump’s return had got their colleagues looking hopefully over the Channel.

 

“Two people have said to me in the last 48 hours that the policy response to Trump is massive investment on defense, how to deal with tariffs, and forging new security agreements with third countries. The U.K. was top of the list,” they said. Like others quoted in this story, the official was granted anonymity by POLITICO so they could speak candidly.

 

A second insider, an EU diplomat, said they could “see the political logic” of Britain and the continent pulling closer for mutual benefit.

 

“I imagine that our support to Ukraine would be the first area where we would deepen our cooperation,” the diplomat said. Trump has pledged to cut funding for the war effort against Russia and his son Donald Trump Jr joked in the hours after election result that it would lose its “allowance.”

 

The diplomat added: “Depending on the extent of Trump’s antics, one can imagine that pressure could grow to deepen cooperation in other areas as well.”

 

Continuing impact

Trump’s return to the world stage comes just as Britain and the EU are getting down to business for what Starmer calls a “reset” of U.K. relations with Brussels.

 

Areas from energy to defense to agricultural trade and youth exchanges all seem to be up for grabs. But the scope of negotiations and topics now looks set to be influenced by the U.S. election result.

 

“It complicates the life of the U.K. government a lot,” a second EU diplomat said. For Britain, pivoting away from Europe becomes more difficult if the world’s largest economy is looking inwards. It’s not entirely clear whether Trump sees the so-called “special relationship” between the U.S. and U.K. as all that special. Meanwhile, Brussels spies an opportunity.

 

Starmer’s big red lines on keeping the U.K. out of the single market, customs union, and freedom of movement have been the main block to negotiations so far — limiting the scope of what can be done.

 

But Britain is already struggling to replace EU trade lost from Brexit with more trade from around the world. The country’s Office for Budget Responsibility warned at the end of October that weak trade figures holding back growth reflected the “continuing impact of Brexit."

 

Trump’s plan for 10 to 20 percent blanket tariffs could make matters even worse — and cost the U.K. £22 billion a year in exports, economists at the University of Sussex's Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy have calculated.

 

“The U.K. needs to review its red lines, and it needs to come up with a new plan,” the diplomat added. “You know, when circumstances change, one needs to rethink one’s course of action.”

 

Some observers think the U.K. can grow closer to both Brussels and Washington.

 

“We should pursue energetically an improved deal with the EU, although that won’t be straightforward,” former Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane told The Guardian. “The new government committed to that and should keep on committing to that.”

 

“That should not, though, preclude — and does not preclude, as difficult as it will be — seeking out a free trade arrangement with the U.S. under a new Trump presidency,” he added.

 

Others remain unconvinced.

 

“I don’t see any special deal coming for the U.K,” Kim Darroch, former U.K. ambassador to Washington, told The Times. Trump’s moves “will be quite a challenge for the U.K,” he said.

 

Unless the U.K. can secure some kind of carve-out from Trump’s blanket tariffs, Starmer will likely resist pressure to think again about the EU reset. That’s music to the ears of some.

 

‘Politically suicidal’

“We’ve got an isolationist president-elect in the United States,” Richard Foord, a Liberal Democrat MP, told a gathering of EU citizens in London days after the U.S. election result. “ I am concerned that Trump’s comments during the election campaign are not mere campaign slogans, but are how he intends to govern. These are reasons, for me, why we need more Europe in the U.K.”

 

Nick Harvey, a former armed forces minister in David Cameron’s coalition government, said the U.K. would pay a price if it didn’t start looking towards Brussels. “We cannot be the 51st state of America – it makes no sense geographically, politically or industrially," he said.

 

“If we attach ourselves pathetically to their coat-tails, instead of being a major player in Europe’s defense, we will pay a price for that folly.”

 

Harvey, now chief executive of the European Movement U.K, argues that failing to link up with the EU would be “potentially suicidal both militarily and economically.”

 

Blueprints on how cooperation could be enhanced already being drawn up. A new report by the Independent Commission on UK-EU relations recommends that Brussels and London work quickly to pull together “a thin agreement” on security which could be gradually expand over time.

 

The U.K. could then sign up to “off-the-shelf” agreements at its own pace — for example participation in joint EU defense projects or rekindling a relationship with the European Defence Agency.

 

But like the diplomat quoted above, the report also warns that existing red lines “continue to preclude anything that would fundamentally alter the broader UK-EU relationship.”

 

The British prime minister wouldn’t be drawn on the prospects of a transatlantic trade war when quizzed by reporters on Monday, telling journalists he didn’t want to get into “a hypothetical discussion.”

 

Starmer also insisted his country wouldn’t be forced to choose between Europe and America.

 

“Obviously European countries are our nearest trading partners and we have got a long shared history,” he said.

 

“But equally the special relationship with the U.S. was forged in difficult circumstances, it’s hugely important to the U.K. I want to ensure we’ve got good relations with all of our important allies, and that includes the EU and the U.S.”