8 things to know about Georgia’s ‘existential’ election
Foreign
policy will be kingmaker when Georgians cast their votes on Saturday.
October 24,
2024 4:00 am CET
By Dato
Parulava
TBILISI,
Georgia — Georgians will head to the polls this Saturday in a pivotal
parliamentary election that will determine whether the small Caucasian nation
moves closer to European Union membership or veers toward Moscow.
Foreign
policy has taken center stage in the electoral campaign, overshadowing
traditional domestic concerns. The shift is largely due to the ruling Georgian
Dream party’s authoritarian turn, which has jeopardized Georgia’s shot to join
the bloc. Failure to secure EU membership would risk pulling the post-Soviet
country back into the sphere of Russian influence.
The
pro-Western opposition challenging Georgian Dream has pledged to prevent that.
How did
Georgia get here?
Around 80
percent of the Georgian population supports EU membership; not so long ago,
Georgia was the poster child of the EU. But the tables have turned — while the
EU has opened accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, Georgia’s
process has halted.
The culprit
is the ruling party and its founder, the oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. At the
helm of the country since 2012, Georgian Dream became increasingly anti-Western
after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Since then it has adopted laws from
Russia’s playbook, such as a “foreign agent law” and an “anti-LGBT propaganda
law.” Critics believe the purpose of such noxious legislation is to undermine
Georgia’s EU prospects and allow Georgian Dream to stay in power.
What’s at
stake?
As Georgia’s
EU prospects hang by a thread, Western governments are watching the election
closely.
“The next
elections will be the moment of truth and the Georgian people will have to
decide which way they want to go: toward Europe or getting apart from Europe,”
said the EU’s foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell.
Drifting
further away from EU has both political and economic consequences. Georgia has
already lost €121 million in aid from Brussels, and as the EU’s ambassador to
Georgia has warned, the country risks losing financial assistance altogether if
Tbilisi halts its accession process.
The United
States has already imposed financial restrictions and travel bans on senior
figures in the Georgian government for undermining democracy, signaling that
Georgian Dream’s anti-Western turn will come at a cost.
While
turning its back on Western allies, the ruling party has been making new
friends. It has forged a strategic partnership with China and has been probing
closer ties with Iran, leaving Georgia more vulnerable to Russia’s influence.
Is Georgian
Dream pro-Russian?
That depends
on whom you ask.
Georgian
Dream features the EU logo on its election banners and claims it wants to join
the bloc on its own terms, “with dignity.” However, it also harshly criticizes
the West for “LGBTQ+ propaganda” and says the United States and the EU are
influenced by a “global war party” that wants to “drag Georgia into the
Russo-Ukrainian war.”
Georgian
Dream supporters carrying a flag at a pro-government rally, featuring combined
symbols of the EU and the ruling party. | Dato Parulava/POLITICO
Warnings to
Georgian Dream that its adoption of Russian-style laws are jeopardizing
Tbilisi’s EU bid have fallen on deaf ears.
Opposition
groups are confident Georgian Dream has a pro-Russian agenda. While they have
framed the elections as a choice between Europe and Russia, the Georgian Dream
government has framed it as a choice between war and peace.
At the same
time, the party has taken an amiable approach to Moscow — despite its invasion
of Georgia in 2008 and the fact it continues to occupy 20 percent of the
country’s territory.
Who is the
ruling party up against?
Opposition
parties have been attempting to unseat the Georgian Dream government for over a
decade, with little success. Georgian Dream has maintained power by
discrediting opposition groups and blaming the United National Movement (UNM)
political party for the country’s woes.
Founded by
ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili, the UNM came to power in Georgia in 2003. It
was ousted by a Georgian Dream opposition coalition in 2012 in the wake of
human rights scandals and widespread protests.
Georgian
Dream has since committed to preventing the UNM’s return to power. The ruling
party recently pledged to ban nearly all opposition parties if it wins in the
polls, claiming that the UNM has infiltrated them all.
With the
stakes so high, several pro-European opposition parties have formed small
coalitions instead of a single united front to appeal to different sections of
Georgian society.
Leading this
pro-Western opposition is President Salome Zourabichvili, who initiated the
so-called Georgian Charter, an agreement among opposition parties to pursue
reforms in key areas like the judiciary and anti-corruption. After implementing
these reforms, the signatories plan to hold snap parliamentary elections “in a
free and fair environment.” The charter also empowers the president to nominate
members of government, including the prime minister.
What are the
polls saying?
All polls
suggest that Georgian Dream is poised to secure the most votes, but that alone
doesn’t guarantee it victory. The party is pushing for a constitutional
majority, which would give it the power to pass laws, including constitutional
amendments, without needing opposition support.
However, it
is unlikely to achieve that goal, as Georgian Dream could struggle merely to
form a government on its own.
This year’s
elections will be proportional, meaning the 150 parliamentary seats will be
distributed according to the percentage of votes each party receives. A fresh
poll by Edison Research for opposition-leaning Formula TV predicted that
Georgian Dream would score 34 percent, with opposition parties that cross the 5
percent threshold for representation in parliament collectively gaining 53
percent.
By contrast,
a September poll by Gorbi for the pro-government Imedi channel gave Georgian
Dream a commanding lead with 59.5 percent, projecting that only two opposition
coalitions would surpass the 5 percent threshold, totaling 23.9 percent.
Who can form
a government?
To approve a
government, the Georgian parliament needs 76 votes in favor — a simple majority
of its 150 seats.
Both
Georgian Dream and the pro-Western opposition parties would need at least 50
percent to form a government. But even if they don’t score 50 percent at the
polls, they can still gain seats from the less-popular parties that fail to
cross the 5 percent threshold, whose support will be redistributed
proportionally.
If it
doesn’t win a majority, the largest party will have to form a working agreement
with other parties. All opposition parties, however, have ruled out working
with Georgian Dream.
If Georgian
Dream falls short of 76 seats, a united opposition could form the government.
The groups have agreed to let President Salome Zourabichvili name the prime
ministerial candidate.
What’s the
mood like?
The
pre-election period has been marred by widespread intimidation, with opposition
leaders attacked on the campaign trail. Since the adoption of the country’s
Russian-style “foreign agents” law, Georgian Dream supporters have assaulted
civil activists, while journalists and civil society groups have faced threats
and vandalism.
Nino
Dolidze, executive director of election monitoring group ISFED, is among the
targets.
“When the
government makes an enemy of you, it impacts your work,” she said, noting
difficulties in recruiting observers due to fear of reprisals. She pointed out
that vote-buying and the use of administrative resources — the mobilization of
people employed in the state sector to rally for Georgian Dream — remains a
pressing issue.
“People are
afraid they will lose their jobs,” she said.
What can we
expect after the vote?
Despite the
tense political atmosphere, the real storm is yet to come. Both the ruling and
opposition parties are so confident of victory they will be reluctant to accept
defeat.
For Georgian
Dream, losing means surrendering control of state institutions and facing
political retribution.
Kornely
Kakachia, director of the Georgian Institute of Politics, predicts that
post-election protests are inevitable. “If the oligarch loses, a lot will
depend on how he reacts. We will probably need Western governments’ involvement
to receive [security and financial] guarantees,” he said.
Kakachia
also noted Georgia’s lack of experience with coalition governance. It’s an open
question how the united opposition will overcome internal divisions to form a
stable government and address key issues, such as making up for lost ground on
the path to the EU and withdrawing problematic laws, “to gain trust within and
outside the country,” Kakachia said.
If Georgian
Dream wins, Kakachia warned, political polarization will worsen. “They will
never unite Georgian society, and this division is exactly what Russia wants —
it’s like music to the Kremlin’s ears.”
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