Von der
Leyen’s charm offensive ahead of secret, knife-edge vote on her future
Secret
ballot poses extra challenge as European Commission president seeks a second
term.
Ursula von
der Leyen and her team are hitting the phones and meeting as many European
lawmakers as possible. |
JULY 10,
2024 4:00 AM CET
BY BARBARA
MOENS, EDDY WAX AND SARAH WHEATON
BRUSSELS —
The EU institution that is the most vocal about democracy and accountability is
next week set to make one of its most important decisions — in secret.
Members of
the European Parliament — many of them brand-new lawmakers — are expected to
vote on July 18 on whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
deserves a second term (the exact day of the vote will be finalized on
Thursday). She already has the backing of a majority of national leaders. But
to get over the line in the Parliament, von der Leyen needs the votes of 361 of
the 720 MEPs. If she fails, she’s out and EU national leaders will have to come
up with an alternative.
That would
be a disaster for the bloc’s credibility — and for von der Leyen’s career.
So von der
Leyen and her team are hitting the phones and meeting as many European
lawmakers as possible, often individually, as not every EU political group or
national head of delegation can guarantee the votes of all their MEPs.
“You have to
negotiate and hope they will honor their promise,” said a person close to von
der Leyen who was granted anonymity, like others in this article, to speak
freely. “There is a big difference from last time. She knows the European
Parliament, she already has a lot of those personal relationships with MEPs.”
But because
the vote will happen in secret, it’s difficult for von der Leyen and group
leaders to carry out “good, old-fashioned American whipping,” said European
People’s Party Secretary General Thanasis Bakolas, referencing the practice of
using incentives or threats to get lawmakers to fall in line.
“It’s
challenging,” said former Commission President José Manuel Barroso, who twice
(successfully) faced a secret vote by MEPs. “They are really independent when
they vote secretly.”
That
independence comes at the cost of accountability to voters.
“It’s
undemocratic,” said Nathalie Brack, a political science professor at the
Université Libre de Bruxelles.
The European
Parliament constantly urges the European Commission and the Council of the EU
to be more transparent, to take into account the result of the EU election when
they choose who should get the bloc’s top jobs, and to support the
Spitzenkandidaten or lead candidate system, Brack pointed out.
MEPs will
vote on July 18 on whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
deserves a second term. |
“But at the
same time, citizens don’t know the direct link between their vote for a MEP and
whether that MEP will vote for or against the next European Commission
president. From a democratic perspective, this isn’t great.”
The European
Parliament stressed that its rules make clear that the election of the
president of the European Commission has to be carried out by secret ballot.
“In general, votes on individuals are frequently secret,” a spokesperson said,
pointing to appointments for the European Court of Auditors or the European
Central Bank.
Rules of the
game
For von der
Leyen, the secret vote has upsides and downsides.
On the one
hand, lawmakers can publicly claim to dislike her but cut secret deals with her
anyway. On the other hand, there’s no way to ensure that lawmakers will follow
through on promises to vote for her.
To pass the
361-vote bar, von der Leyen will hope for as much support as possible from the
centrist groups that backed her last time — her own EPP, the center-left
Socialists & Democrats (S&D), and the liberal Renew — who collectively
have almost 400 seats.
The big
question is what Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brother of Italy
lawmakers will do. Meloni abstained when it came time to vote on von der Leyen
in the Council of the EU. Von der Leyen has so far not yet met with the
European Conservatives and Reformists — but abstentions are worth the same as
votes against in the Parliament ballot.
But even
within the centrist groups, there are dissident delegations and lawmakers. Some
have already openly said they won’t vote for von der Leyen, others could back
her in public but still push the ‘No’ button in Strasbourg.
That is one
of the reasons why the European Parliament has made this vote secret, said
Brack.
“The goal is
that MEPs don’t face pressure from their party, or from their group, so that
they vote as they wish. The idea is that this strengthens the autonomy of their
parliamentary mandate,” she said.
Richard
Corbett, a former U.K. Labour Party MEP, said the secrecy of the vote led to a
big discussion when it was put into the Parliament’s rulebook. Corbett said he
wanted votes to be made public to be more accountable to citizens.
Others
argued the vote should be secret to prevent outside pressure, for example from
national governments, and to safeguard MEPs’ independence, which is also the
case in the German Bundestag when they vote on a chancellor, Corbett recalled.
“I lost. It was one of those issues where national parliamentary traditions
influenced attitudes.”
Of course,
there is still pressure. Several government leaders, party and group leaders,
or heads of delegations are putting pressure on their MEPs to get in line.
Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris, who hails from the same EPP family as von
der Leyen, has already said he will be “engaging” with Irish MEPs ahead of the
vote.
Von der
Leyen herself is taking no chances. She is skipping the NATO summit in
Washington this week to focus “on her work to build a majority for a strong
Europe in the European Parliament,” Eric Mamer, chief spokesperson of the
European Commission, said.
But even if
hands are shaken and deals made, MEPs can still choose to vote against von der
Leyen without anyone ever knowing.
This weakens
a potential second term for von der Leyen, said an EU official. Von der Leyen
has to beg and give concessions to get lawmakers on board, the official argued.
As she has no guarantees, she needs to do this with as many MEPs as possible,
giving out political capital like sweets.
Eva
Poptcheva, an outgoing MEP for Renew, played down the possibility of MEPs
saying one thing and doing another.
“I don’t
think many people will feel the need to say to her ‘I am going to vote for you’
and in the end not do it,” she said.
Time to cash
in
The endless
horse trading is exactly why a secret ballot is “absolutely only on a benefit”
for von der Leyen, said Jacob Moroza-Rasmussen, a former chief at the
pan-European liberal ALDE party.
And of
course those who have negotiated concessions can only cash them in if von der
Leyen stays in office.
In fact,
that’s exactly how von der Leyen won her first mandate, Moroza-Rasmussen said
at a recent briefing by the consultancy APCO Worldwide, where he’s now a senior
director.
The Polish
Law and Justice Party (PiS) “didn’t have to go out and say ‘we voted for von
der Leyen.’ But it’s a public secret that they were given certain benefits to
vote for her to get her over the line last time,” Moroza-Rasmussen said. PiS is
a part of the European Conservatives and Reformists group alongside Meloni’s
MEPs and has had a toxic relationship with Brussels over rule of law issues.
If you see
Parliament committee chairs or other plum positions being given to “surprising”
groups or individual members, Moroza-Rasmussen added, “you should probably look
out for that being part of the deal.”
No backup
plan
The lack of
alternatives — and fear of political chaos — helps von der Leyen.
If she comes
up short of the magic number of 361, even by a single vote, the European
Council has a month to deliberate and come up with another candidate, an
outcome that would be unprecedented and could spark a political crisis,
especially since there are no other obvious candidates would could pass both
the European Council and the European Parliament.
Ursula von
der Leyen is skipping the NATO summit in Washington this week to focus. |
“Good luck
getting Plenković or Mitsotakis through that vote,” said another EU official,
pointing to the Croatian and Greek prime ministers, whose names were floated as
alternatives to von der Leyen ahead of the EU election.
The need for
political stability amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, Hungary’s tumultuous
presidency of the Council of the EU, and a potential change in American
leadership in November helped von der Leyen get the support of EU heads of
state and government last month. Now, she and her team are making the same
argument with the European Parliament.
The big
uncertainty is the large number of new European lawmakers. The current
Parliament is more diverse and divided than at any point in the EU’s modern
history. With a stronger hard right, it becomes even more important to convince
pro-European lawmakers, including ones who have never set foot in Brussels or
Strasbourg before.
“Some people
will never vote for her because they don’t want the European Union to work,”
Barroso, who is also from the EPP, said in an interview last week. But even
beyond the “core parties,” he said, “other people, they want the European Union
to work.”
He added:
“There is not a credible alternative to Ursula von der Leyen.”
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