Polls
open in one of most important French elections in living memory
Far-right
National Rally of Marine Le Pen poised to become dominant force in country’s
national assembly
Jon Henley
Europe correspondent
Sun 7 Jul
2024 08.00 CEST
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/07/french-election-national-rally-marine-le-pen
Voting has
begun in France in one of the country’s most momentous elections in living
memory, with the far-right National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen and its allies
poised to become the dominant force in the national assembly.
After a rest
day with no political activity allowed, voting got under way across mainland
France at 8am local time on Sunday, with pollsters due to publish usually
reliable seat projections as the last big-city polling stations close at 8pm.
Successive
polls over the past week have shown the estimated number of RN deputies in the
new parliament falling steadily from earlier projections as rival candidates
pulled out of three-way run-offs to avoid splitting the anti-far-right vote.
The
“republican front” is thought likely to block the anti-immigration, Eurosceptic
party from winning an outright majority of 289, with a final Ipsos poll
indicating the RN and its allies would send between 175 and 205 deputies to the
577-seat parliament.
That would
still give the RN a parliamentary party more than double the size of its
88-strong group in the outgoing parliament, however, with the number of MPs
from the centrist coalition of the president, Emmanuel Macron, forecast to
halve to at most 148.
The New
Popular Front (NFP), a four-way left-wing alliance dominated by the radical
left Unbowed France (LFI) of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, was expected to win between
145 and 175 seats, likely making it the second largest force in the new
assembly.
Macron, who
called the snap election less than a month ago after his camp suffered a
humiliating defeat at the hands of the RN in the European parliamentary ballot,
looks set to face the final three years of his presidency with no clear ruling
majority.
“Today the
danger is a majority dominated by the extreme right and that would be
catastrophic,” the prime minister, Gabriel Attal, who may be tasked with trying
to hold together a caretaker government, said in a final interview on Friday.
Attal
promised to stay on “as long as necessary” in a caretaker role while Macron and
his advisers plot their next move, which could be some form of broad coalition
excluding the far right and far left or perhaps a technocratic government.
But the
result risks plunging France – one of the EU’s driving forces and the bloc’s
second largest economy, as well as a prominent Nato power and member of the UN
security council – into prolonged parliamentary deadlock and political
uncertainty.
Le Pen
insisted this week the far-right party could win an absolute majority, calling
on voters to avoid “a total quagmire” by giving the RN a clear mandate to
govern and ensuring her 28-year-old lieutenant, Jordan Bardella, became prime
minister.
Le Pen has
denounced the republican front as an attempt to steal victory “against the will
of the people” by creating a “single party” protecting the political class, and
Bardella has said he will not take up the post unless his party has an outright
majority.
The RN has
toned down many of its positions, but still plans to slash immigration, bar
dual nationals from certain state jobs, abolish the right of babies born in
France to be French and create a “national preference” for some welfare
benefits.
Analysts say
the far-right party has benefited from public anger at Macron, whose
pro-business reforms have spurred the economy but who is viewed by many voters
as having ignored their concerns about the cost of living and worsening public
services.
The campaign
has been marked by rising tensions and multiple incidents of violence, with
more than 50 candidates and campaign activists physically assaulted. Several
have been injured to the extent of needing hospital treatment.
The outgoing
interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, last week said more than 30 arrests had
been made across France and denounced what he described as “a climate of great
violence towards politics and all that it represents”.
A fortnight
before France is due to host the summer Olympics, about 30,000 police,
including 5,000 in Paris, will be deployed this weekend to head off possible
post-vote trouble, and street protests have been banned outside parliament.
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