Macron
hopes glitzy Olympics can deliver political breather
The French
president wants a summer timeout from politics, but it will be back with a
vengeance.
JULY 26,
2024 4:00 AM CET
BY CLEA
CAULCUTT
PARIS — The
Paris Olympic Games were supposed to be a crowning, triumphant moment for
French President Emmanuel Macron, a celebration of France’s grandeur that kicks
off with an opening ceremony so audacious that nothing like it has been seen
since the days of Louis XV.
But even if
the parade on the Seine River and the rest of the Games go off without a hitch,
Macron won’t be getting a coronation.
Right now,
he’s just hoping for a respite from domestic politics.
“We need a
break, we need time to calm down, to stop the multiple and various political
attacks,” said a Macron ally, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Macron’s
political fortunes have, arguably, never looked bleaker. The French president
surprised his own camp when he called for a snap election after being brutally
defeated by the far right, which campaigned on an anti-Macron platform, in
June’s European election. In its wake, the French president’s coalition
suffered a second thrashing during the parliamentary election and lost dozens
of seats. Tensions have been at fever pitch in recent weeks, with no single
party or coalition able to command a majority in parliament and form a
government.
This week,
the French president called for “a political truce,” a break from the political
turmoil he himself unleashed.
With all
eyes on Paris, Macron will be able to briefly put his domestic woes aside as he
plays host to the world’s glitterati, including singer Céline Dion, rap artist
Snoop Dogg and billionaire Tesla boss Elon Musk. The opening ceremony on Friday
is expected to a be an artistic and logistical tour de force with a floating
parade on the Seine and spectators on the river banks.
But Macron
will face the world in an unusual position, with no prime minister by his side
and a country led by a caretaker government that knows its days are numbered.
Still, the
Olympics could work in his favor, Ipsos pollster Mathieu Gallard said. “All the
attention of the media and the French will be on the games,” he said.
The Olympics
and the summer holidays that follow them — by tradition a lengthy break in
France — could provide Macron with a “de facto break,” Gallard explained.
That pause
could prove politically expedient.
“The truth
is that when we let things simmer down, we win,” said Macron’s ally, pointing
to the centrist’s recent surprise victory to keep key positions in the National
Assembly.
Olympic boon
for Macron?
Macron has
always been keen to harness the power of sports, often styling himself as
France’s head coach, giving pep talks to football players and celebrating with
les Bleus. He’s been photographed sweaty and boxing, likes to play football for
charity and ostentatiously cultivates relations with Kylian Mbappé, the
national team’s star player.
It doesn’t
always work out. Mbappé left Paris Saint-Germain for Real Madrid this summer
despite Macron’s repeated personal overtures. At other times, it has produced
some seriously cringeworthy moments. In 2022, the French president descended on
the pitch in Qatar to console players after their World Cup final defeat to
Argentina in a move that annoyed fans.
Ahead of the
Paris Games, Macron called on his fellow countrymen to feel proud of being
French despite the strained political situation.
“We are
going to welcome the world, it’s an immense pride. France is a welcoming
[nation], it’s an audacious France, it’s a France that is proud of its
history,” he said during an interview on French television. He even offered the
Olympic Games, which were organized by politicians from different parties, as
“a metaphor” for how politics should work.
But
according to pollster Bruno Jeanbart, it’s unlikely Macron will benefit from
any Olympic boon, similar to what happened when France won the football World
Cup in 1998 under former President Jacques Chirac.
“Chirac got
a boost because the [left-wing] opposition was running the country, he could
benefit from the feel-good factor as head of state,” Jeanbart said, referring
to a period when the president and prime minister hailed from different
parties, as looks set to happen again.
“But it’s
different this time, politics is not in the same place, we don’t even have a
government,” he added.
Rubik’s Cube
politics
Pessimism
runs high within Macron’s Renaissance party, and several insiders are saying
the prospect of reaching an agreement in parliament to form a government seems
distant.
“We need a
break … but that won’t change anything. Nobody wants to give Macron a victory,”
said former Renaissance lawmaker Christophe Weissberg.
Some of
Macron’s supporters, however, hope that with time, a path may be found to build
a coalition willing to work with the president.
But Gallard,
the Ipsos pollster, said he was skeptical the Olympic truce could lead to any
breakthrough in French politics, as no coalition is emerging that could command
a majority in parliament.
Weissberg
said: “When the Olympics end, we will once again have the left calling for the
president to accept their candidate for prime minister and a paralyzed
parliament, unless Macron manages to negotiate a coalition.”
This week,
the pan-left alliance, the New Popular Front, which won the most seats in this
summer’s parliamentary election, finally agreed to put forward Lucie Castets, a
little-known Parisian civil servant, as their candidate for prime minister
after weeks of bickering.
Macron, who
has the constitutional power to appoint the next head of government,
categorically refused the proposal. He brushed aside any chance that Castets
would become prime minister before the Olympics conclude during his television
interview this week, which took place shortly after her selection was made
public.
Macron
argued that the left did not have a sufficient majority in parliament to govern
France, implement reforms and pass a budget.
The French
president instead has called for France to learn parliamentary politics and the
art of negotiation that is practiced in other European countries, but his
inability to take a step back is stifling progress, said Weissberg.
“The
president must show that he doesn’t have a solution. He isn’t capable of
showing that the ball isn’t in his court. It’s only by showing that he has
lost, that he will win,” he said.
Fears are
running high among centrists that letting the left form a government would give
too much influence to Macron’s arch-enemy, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of
the left-wing France Unbowed party.
The French
president’s coalition suffered a thrashing during the parliamentary election
and lost dozens of seats. |
It would
also mean handing power to a political group that has vowed to torpedo one of
Macron’s hardest-earned domestic achievements, pension reform, and put in place
other expensive policies that would increase France’s already worryingly high
level of debt and set up a showdown with Brussels over spending rules.
“France
Unbowed has several decrees ready to blow everything up, within 24 hours. They
are very well organized,” said the same Macron ally quoted above.
But refusing
point blank to give the left a shot at governing France could undermine
Macron’s long-term efforts to build a wide coalition from the left to the
conservatives.
“It’s going
to be very difficult, the [moderate left] will dig their heels in. Some
Socialists would work with us but they are prisoners of their [pan-left]
political agreement,” Weissberg, the former Renaissance MP, said.
“Everybody
is going to dig their heels in, building any sort of coalition will be
difficult,” he said.
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