France’s
Snap Election Enters Its Final Hours
The vote
will determine the composition of France’s National Assembly, and the future of
President Emmanuel Macron’s second term.
Aurelien
Breeden
By Aurelien
Breeden
Reporting
from Paris
July 6, 2024
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/06/world/europe/france-parliamentary-election-2024.html
Voters in
France will cast ballots on Sunday in the final round of snap legislative
elections. The results could force President Emmanuel Macron to govern
alongside far-right opponents or usher in chronic political instability weeks
before the Paris Summer Olympics.
Mr. Macron
called the elections for the 577-seat National Assembly, France’s lower and
more prominent house of Parliament, last month in a risky gamble that appeared
to have largely backfired after the first round of voting last week.
Most polls
close at 6 p.m. local time on Sunday, or as late as 8 p.m. in larger cities.
Nationwide seat projections by polling institutes, based on preliminary
results, are expected just after 8 p.m. Official results will come in
throughout the night.
The first
round of voting was dominated by the nationalist, anti-immigration National
Rally party. An alliance of left-wing parties called the New Popular Front came
in a strong second, while Mr. Macron’s party and its allies came in third.
Seventy-six
seats were won outright — roughly half by the National Rally. But the rest went
to runoffs.
Over 300
districts were three-way races until over 200 candidates from left-wing parties
and Mr. Macron’s centrist coalition pulled out to avoid splitting the vote and
try to prevent the far right from winning.
That will
make it harder, though not impossible, for the National Rally and its allies to
reach an absolute majority.
Most French
pollsters expect the party and its allies to win 175 to 240 seats — short of an
absolute majority of 289 seats. But if the National Rally and its allies secure
an absolute majority, they will almost certainly be able to form a government —
and Mr. Macron, who says he will remain in office, will have to work with them.
How will the
country’s leadership work?
A
contentious outcome with Mr. Macron as president and the National Rally leader,
Jordan Bardella, as prime minister is possible, under what France calls a
cohabitation.
France’s
prime minister and cabinet are accountable to the lower house, and they
determine the country’s policies. But they are appointed by the president, who
has extensive executive powers and is directly elected by the public.
Usually, the
president and prime minister are politically aligned. (Every five years, France
holds presidential and legislative elections within weeks of each other, making
it likely that voters will support the same party twice.) But when the
presidency and the National Assembly are at odds, the president has little
choice but to appoint a prime minister from an opposing party — or someone
lawmakers won’t topple with a no-confidence vote.
Cohabitation
has happened before, between mainstream left-wing and conservative leaders,
from 1986 to 1988, 1993 to 1995, and 1997 to 2002. But a cohabitation between
Mr. Macron, a pro-European centrist, and Mr. Bardella, a Euroskeptic
nationalist, would be unprecedented.
Jordan
Bardella, the president of the National Rally, arriving in Paris for a
television interview in the week leading up to Sunday’s vote.Credit...Bertrand
Guay/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
What if no
one gets an absolute majority?
Polls
suggest that a likely scenario is a lower house roughly divided into three
blocs with conflicting agendas and, in some cases, deep animosity toward one
another — the National Rally, the New Popular Front, and a reduced centrist
alliance including Mr. Macron’s Renaissance party.
As it
stands, no bloc appears able to find enough partners to form a majority,
leaving Mr. Macron with limited options.
“French
political culture is not conducive to compromise,” said Samy Benzina, a public
law professor at the University of Poitiers, noting that France’s institutions
are designed to produce “clear majorities that can govern on their own.”
“It would be
the first time in the Fifth Republic that a government could not be assembled
for lack of a solid majority,” he said.
Some
analysts and politicians have suggested that a broad cross-party coalition
could stretch from the Greens to more moderate conservatives. But France is not
accustomed to building coalitions, and several political leaders have ruled it
out.
Another
possibility is a caretaker government that handles day-to-day business until
there is a political breakthrough. But this, too, would be a departure from
French tradition.
If none of
those solutions work, the country could be headed for months of political
deadlock.
Will the
vote end in violence?
The
campaign, one of the shortest in France’s modern history, was clouded by a
tense atmosphere, racist incidents and acts of violence.
One
television news program filmed a couple who support the National Rally hurling
invectives at a Black neighbor, telling her to “go to the doghouse.” A
television host of North African descent revealed a racist letter he had
received at his home. A bakery in Avignon was burned and covered in homophobic
and racist tags.
Gérald
Darmanin, France’s interior minister, said on Friday that over 50 people —
candidates, their substitutes, or supporters — had been “physically assaulted”
during the campaign.
There are
fears that postelection protests will turn violent. The authorities have
deployed about 30,000 security forces around the country, including about 5,000
in the Paris region, to deal with potential unrest.
Aurelien
Breeden is a reporter for The Times in Paris, covering news from France. More
about Aurelien Breeden
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