OPINION
GUEST ESSAY
Doing
Nothing About Biden Is the Riskiest Plan of All
July 3, 2024
By Nate
Silver
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/opinion/biden-democrats-senate-polls.html
Mr. Silver
writes the newsletter Silver Bulletin.
After last
week’s debate disaster, some Democrats are trying to circle the wagons to
protect President Biden, noting that Barack Obama lost his first debate as an
incumbent president, too.
But this one
doesn’t pass the smell test. Mr. Obama wasn’t 81 years old at the time of his
debate debacle. And he came into the debate as a strong favorite in the
election, whereas Mr. Biden was behind (with just a 35 percent chance of
winning).
A 35 percent
chance is not nothing. But Mr. Biden needed to shake up the race, not just
preserve the status quo. Instead, he’s dug himself a deeper hole.
Polls beyond
the straight horse-race numbers between Mr. Biden and Donald Trump — ones that
include Democratic Senate candidate races in close swing-state races — suggest
something even more troubling about Mr. Biden’s chances, but also offer a
glimpse of hope for Democrats.
You don’t
need another pundit telling you that Mr. Biden should quit the race, although
I’m among those who emphatically think he should. But Democrats should be more
open to what polls are telling them — and again, not just Biden-Trump polls.
There is a silver lining for Democrats to be found in these surveys. Voters in
these polls like Democratic candidates for Congress just fine. More than fine,
actually: It’s Mr. Biden who is the problem.
The data is
remarkably consistent. There are five presidential swing states that also have
highly competitive Senate races this year: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada,
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (Sorry, Florida and Ohio don’t count as swing
states anymore — and Texas isn’t one quite yet.) In those states, there have
been 47 nonpartisan surveys conducted since Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump emerged as
their parties’ clear nominees in March.
In 46 of the
47 polls, the Democratic Senate candidate polled better than Mr. Biden. He and
the Senate candidate performed equally well in one poll. Which means that Mr.
Biden didn’t outpoll the Senate candidate in any of the surveys. (I’m using the
versions of the polls among likely voters, and the version with Robert F.
Kennedy Jr. included if the pollster made one available.)
None of the
47 polls — not a single one of them — showed the Democratic candidate trailing
in the Senate race, though two showed a tie. In contrast, Mr. Biden led in only
seven of the surveys, was tied with Mr. Trump in two and trailed in the other
38.
Net polling
for Biden vs. Trump and Democratic vs. Republican Senate candidates, in 47
nonpartisan polls conducted in swing states with competitive Senate races.
The contrast
is remarkably consistent across blue-chip surveys, the dubious ones that voters
probably should have some concerns about and everything in between. And the
difference isn’t only at the margin. Mr. Biden is underperforming the presumed
Democratic Senate nominee by a net of five points in Michigan, seven points in
Wisconsin, eight points in Pennsylvania, 11 points in Arizona and an unlucky 13
points in Nevada.
Unfortunately,
Democrats, once inclined to ignore the pundits and trust the data, have now
soured on public opinion surveys. Contrary to what many of them — including
people in the White House — will say, polls were quite accurate in 2022. Poll
skepticism is a shame, because in a democracy, polls are a vital way of letting
the public have their say in between the once every two to four years that they
get to vote.
And for at
least a year now polls have been overwhelmingly consistent in showing that
voters think Mr. Biden is too old to serve another term.
But surveys
like the ones above are vital for two reasons. First, they make it much less
likely that there’s some sort of systematic skew in the surveys. The pollsters
are finding plenty of Democratic voters, just not enough Biden voters. And
second, these Senate candidates are well known to voters in their states and
running in actual races, not hypothetical matchups, like those featuring other
prospective Democratic presidential candidates that pollsters occasionally
test. Relatively unknown candidates typically underachieve in surveys.
If you made
me a Democratic superdelegate, I’d probably vote for a candidate who has proved
her or his mettle in a swing state, like Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan,
Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania or Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia (though
Mr. Warnock running for president would cost Democrats a Senate seat). Or I’d
take my chances on a member of the new generation of leaders, like Gov. Wes
Moore of Maryland.
What if
you’re convinced that the overall political climate — even without Mr. Biden —
is actually pretty good for Democrats? In recent years, the party has won more
than its fair share of special elections. That might call for someone like
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, who would at least project quiet Midwestern
competence compared with Mr. Trump. And if the party really wanted to show
itself to be the adults in the room, it could nominate Vice President Kamala
Harris, whose approval ratings are now notably less bad than her boss’s.
But pundits
don’t get to choose. Delegates do — and they should be listening to voters.
To overcome
the obvious problem — the Democratic primaries are over — here’s an idea. It’s
not ideal, but I want a Democrat who can give the party a fighting chance. Even
if the replacement candidate’s chances are below 50 percent, what matters is
that he or she probably can poll better than Mr. Biden.
The party
could hold an open audition for the nomination process. Candidates who raised
their hands would hold two or three debates against one another. They could
give speeches and hold rallies. And Democrats could vote in straw polls
sponsored by donors in a combination of virtual locations and physical ones
that reflected the demographic breadth of the Democratic Party — say, in
Atlanta, Phoenix, Pittsburgh and one or two more rural locations. Voters would
also express their opinions in regular opinion polls.
Delegates
could take this information into account at the Democratic National Convention
in Chicago and make a more informed decision. This plan would require Mr. Biden
to declare his intention to exit the race sooner rather than later.
It’s not a
great plan. But there is no great plan left. At this point, any Democrat would
likely be an underdog to Mr. Trump. Not because Mr. Trump is popular, which he
very much isn’t, but because it’s hard to imagine a replacement being fully
prepared for the race. This candidate would still have to answer for some
problems, like inflation, that occurred on Democrats’ watch. In addition, the
party’s current coalition puts it at a significant Electoral College
disadvantage.
Poker
players like me, and the accomplished risk-takers from astronauts to venture
capitalists I’ve talked to for my research, understand the importance of
working with incomplete information. And they understand that sometimes doing
nothing is the riskiest plan of all.
Nate Silver,
the founder and former editor of FiveThirtyEight and the author of the
forthcoming book “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything,” writes the
newsletter Silver Bulletin.
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