Analysis
Nadine Dorries’ departure is relief for Sunak but
byelection holds danger
Pippa
Crerar
Political
editor
Labour and Lib Dems hopeful of capturing seat, and
backbench Tories fear Dorries’ words could haunt PM
Sun 27 Aug
2023 16.28 BST
Rishi
Sunak’s relief that Nadine Dorries is finally standing down as an MP has been
tempered by fears of a difficult byelection ahead and anger among Conservative
backbenchers that her angry outbursts will end up on Labour’s general election
leaflets.
The former
cabinet minister and Boris Johnson loyalist resigned her Commons seat of Mid
Bedfordshire on Saturday, accusing the prime minister of betraying Tory
principles and telling him: “History will not judge you kindly.”
Her
resignation means the government faces yet another challenging contest this
autumn in what should be an ultra-safe seat. If Labour can overturn the 24,664
majority, it would represent the largest collapse in support for the
Conservatives in byelection history.
The
explosive manner of Dorries’ departure has angered soon-to-be former
colleagues, with the senior Tory MP Tobias Ellwood describing it as an
“undignified chapter” and “an episode of colleagues throwing their teddies in
the corner, in this case for simply not getting a peerage”.
He told GB
News: “It has been messy, it has been embarrassing for both the parliament and
specifically to our party. Delaying this resignation was designed to maximise
harm to the prime minister. I’m pleased that this sort of selfish charade is
now over.”
One Tory
backbencher told the Guardian: “Nadine has done the party a great disservice by
attacking Rishi in such a way. Her words will end up on every Labour party
leaflet at the next election.”
The defence
minister Johnny Mercer said people were not interested in hearing Dorries’
latest “personal attack” on Sunak, and the party needed to move forward having
“raked over the coals of the Boris Johnson premiership a number of times”.
Government
insiders said Sunak was determined to press ahead with plans for the autumn
attempting to show people struggling with the cost of living that a better
future lies ahead.
However,
with inflation expected to tilt upwards again next month as the Tories gather
for their party conference, Sunak could struggle to convince voters that the
economy is back on track.
The prime
minister faces continued grumbles from backbench MPs who want the government to
cut taxes. Meanwhile, in the government’s final themed policy week before
parliament returns next Monday, ministers are making a series of announcements
on policing and the criminal justice system.
The
Conservatives are still reeling from the loss to Labour of Selby and Ainsty, in
North Yorkshire, in a byelection this summer when Keir Starmer’s party
overturned a majority of just over 20,000.
Labour
believes it is best placed to gain Dorries’ traditionally safe Tory seat,
having come second in 2019. The party’s chair, Anneliese Dodds, has conceded it
would “take an absolutely enormous change” for Labour to win.
The Lib
Dems, who came third in 2019, have also said they could win, having achieved
massive swings to take similar rural so-called “blue wall” seats where
Conservative support has traditionally been strong.
The Tories’
challenge in defending Mid Bedfordshire could be compounded by local voters’
evident frustration over Dorries’ absenteeism in representing the constituency.
She had not spoken in the Commons since June 2022 and last voted in April.
The
divisive circumstances of her exit, after she delayed her departure to
investigate why she had been refused a seat in the Lords, may also not help.
In her
scathing resignation letter to Sunak, Dorries wrote: “Your actions have left
some 200 or more of my MP colleagues to face an electoral tsunami and the loss
of their livelihoods, because in your impatience to become prime minister you
put your personal ambition above the stability of the country and our economy.
“Bewildered,
we look in vain for the grand political vision for the people of this great
country to hold on to, that would make all this disruption and subsequent
inertia worthwhile, and we find absolutely nothing.”
A
byelection writ cannot be moved until parliament returns next month, so the
contest will not be held until October at the earliest.
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