London Playbook: Boris fights back — DUP verdict
— Credit Suisse subsumed
BY ROSA
PRINCE
MARCH 20,
2023 8:04 AM CET
London
Playbook
By ROSA
PRINCE
Good Monday
morning. This is Rosa Prince — I’ll be back Tuesday too.
DRIVING THE
DAY
BORIS
FIGHTBACK BEGINS: Boris Johnson’s capacity for dominating the agenda shows no
sign of fading as he today launches an audacious preemptive strike ahead of his
live televised grilling in front of the privileges committee on Wednesday. A
dossier drawn up by lawyers setting out his side of the Partygate story is
expected to be made public this afternoon, according to a person familiar with
the investigation. The 60-page document is described as “a convincing and compelling
statement of his case as to why he did not knowingly mislead parliament” when
he told the Commons lockdown rules were not broken.
Case for
the defense: Johnson’s spokesperson said: “The privileges committee will
vindicate Boris Johnson’s position. The evidence will show that Boris Johnson
did not knowingly mislead parliament.” In the dossier, Johnson will argue that
the committee’s probe into whether he knowingly misled parliament over parties
at No. 10 during lockdown is both biased and illegal.
Only
following orders: The dossier is said to include WhatsApp messages suggesting
that Johnson was acting on the advice of officials when he told the Commons
that rules were followed at all times. He will offer evidence that he was
advised a “workplace exemption” was in place, covering the parties. He will
stress that none of the two dozen witnesses who gave written evidence have said
they knew the parties were illegal.
A reminder:
The committee isn’t ruling on whether the parties broke lockdown rules — they
did— but whether Johnson misled parliament when he said the rules were
followed. The Telegraph carries a quote from a member of the legal team saying:
“People will be surprised by the quantity and quality of the evidence in his
favour.”
**A message
from Roche: Think you recognise your MP? What if you were living with sight
loss? Take The Eyes Have It challenge and share your score using
#TheEyesHaveIt.**
Grab your
popcorn: Johnson is due to submit to four hours of questioning before the
privileges committee from 2 p.m. to 6 p.m. on Wednesday. Both sides have held
mock sessions ahead of the event, several papers report, with acting Labour
Chair Harriet Harman and Tory Bernard Jenkin, two of the Commons’ most
experienced and long-standing MPs, leading the questioning.
No fair:
Johnson allies have variously described the probe as a “witch hunt,” (Tory peer
Stephen Greenhalgh) and a “kangaroo court” (Jacob Rees-Mogg). Rishi Sunak has
been subject to grumbles for granting MPs a free vote on any sanction
recommended by the committee — something that is common practice (although not
under Johnson himself). His legal team will accuse the committee of “moving the
goalposts” by deciding to judge whether Johnson “recklessly” misled parliament
rather than the harder-to-prove “knowingly” stated something untrue.
Behave
yourself: Things have got rather heated in the run-up to the big day, with the
Tories on the committee in particular coming under intense pressure, amid
conflicting reports that they had even been asked to withdraw from the inquiry
altogether. Johnson will accuse Harman of pre-judging the inquiry over tweets
she sent about the case, and will claim the committee is basing its findings on
a report by civil servant Sue Gray, who, he will say, is irrevocably tainted
because she is now seeking to work for the opposition Labour Party.
Burn: On
the Westminster Hour last night, and fresh from his wince-inducing interview
with Decca Aitkenhead, Johnson ally Conor Burns said: “The concern that some of
us have is that it appears that some members of that committee have
pre-determined their view.” Burns also disclosed that he had spoken to Johnson
Sunday afternoon, saying: “He is looking forward to the opportunity to getting
his case out there, to putting his case to the committee on Wednesday, to
answering their questions.”
Shades of
Gray: Talking of Gray, the Mail’s Jason Groves hears the civil servant was in
talks with Labour about joining the party in November, while she was still
advising the government over the inquiry. A Whitehall official tells him: “You
don’t have to be Boris Johnson’s biggest fan to think it’s a bit dodgy to be
secretly speaking to the Leader of the Opposition while still being intimately
involved in such a highly sensitive and political matter.”
Out, out,
out: The Independent has a poll suggesting two-thirds of voters believe Johnson
should stand down as an MP if he is found to have misled parliament. The Mirror
has spoken to families who lost loved ones to COVID who also urge him to step
down should the committee find against him. Perhaps a more plausible route to
the exit is if the Commons, acting on the committee’s recommendation, votes to
suspend Johnson for 10 days or more. This would trigger a recall ballot,
followed by a by-election if 10 percent of registered voters in his Uxbridge
constituency back one.
Getting on
with it: And what does Rishi Sunak make of all this? One Downing Street
official told Playbook the current PM “had his head down” and was “just getting
on with it,” and would not be distracted by the Boris Johnson “soap opera.” But
the i claims No. 10 has had to shelve announcements on pensions, crime and
energy to avoid being overshadowed by Johnson and his dossier.
What No. 10
wants to be getting on with: The Windsor Framework — Sunak’s nifty solution to
the problematic Northern Ireland protocol, which faces its first vote in the
Commons on Wednesday, the same day Johnson appears before the committee.
Whether the ex-PM votes for the framework — and he has indicated he will not —
will be of less concern to Downing Street than the actions of the DUP and ERG.
DUP
verdict: The DUP meets today to decide whether it’s a thumbs up or down to the
framework, PolHome’s well-sourced Adam Payne reports. Of the party’s eight MPs,
Ian Paisley Jr and Sammy Wilson have already publicly rejected the deal, and
Payne reckons Jim Shannon, Gregory Campbell and Paul Girvan are leaning towards
voting against it. The Times’ Steven Swinford hears leader Jeffrey Donaldson
and some of his MPs may abstain, effectively splitting the group.
Next the
ERG: Meanwhile, the ERG will hold a press conference Tuesday to announce the
verdict of its so-called star chamber of legal advisers who have been examining
the detail of the deal. Downing Street is hoping the warm noises in the days
after the framework was agreed from senior Brexiteers including Liam Fox,
Andrea Leadsom, Steve Baker and David Davis, will be enough to limit the scale
of the rebellion.
But, but,
but: The Independent says a number of Tories are peeved that Wednesday’s vote
will take the form of a statutory instrument on the so-called Stormont brake,
which gives unionists in the power-sharing assembly at Stormont the right to
halt new EU regulations. There are further concerns over suggestions that
Wednesday’s debate could be as short as 90 minutes. The Times reports claims
that ministers fear Sunak may have “over-promised,” and that the brake may be
unworkable in practice.
My way or
the highway: Downing Street has already warned Tory backbenchers and Northern
Ireland unionists that the bill will proceed with or without their backing,
according to the Telegraph. Sunak is said to be content that the bill would
pass as it “removes the threat of any ratchet of EU law.” Given Labour has
already confirmed it will back the legislation required to implement the
framework, this was never really in doubt. But a sizeable rebellion would be an
embarrassment, and rejection by the DUP makes the restoration of power-sharing
an ever more fanciful dream.
CREDIT
SUISSE
WHILE YOU
WERE SLEEPING: The Asian markets opened down after Swiss officials scrambled to
prevent a global banking meltdown by forcing the takeover of the troubled
Credit Suisse bank by its larger rival, UBS, for £2.65 billion, considerably
short of its market value. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt spoke by phone to Swiss
finance chiefs as the race to secure a deal before the markets opened in Tokyo,
Hong Kong and Shanghai went to the wire. Central banks including the Bank of
England will now ramp up currency trading known as “swap lines” from weekly to
daily to ensure sufficient currency flows. The drama in the financial markets
splashes the FT, Telegraph and City AM. The FT’s write-up is as comprehensive
as you would expect.
Yikes: The
bailout followed fears that Credit Suisse could fail within days, and came just
a week after HSBC took over the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank’s U.K. arm. The
fate of 10,000 staff working for Credit Suisse in Canary Wharf and the City
remains unclear, while billions have been wiped off the bank’s value. As
commentators have pointed out, the UBS takeover means Credit Suisse has
effectively ceased to exist.
All is
well: At 7.33 p.m. Sunday evening, the Bank of England issued a statement
reading: “We welcome the comprehensive set of actions set out by the Swiss
authorities today in order to support financial stability. We have been
engaging closely with international counterparts throughout the preparations for
today’s announcements and will continue to support their implementation. The
U.K. banking system is well capitalised and funded, and remains safe and
sound.” So that’s OK then.
What went
wrong?: The trouble began last week, when Credit Suisse asked the Swiss
National Bank for an emergency credit line to ensure it could keep up with
withdrawals. When panicking customers continued to remove their cash, the
central bank had no choice but to step in to prevent a collapse, which would
have had major implications for the entire global banking system.
STOP THE
BOATS
SUELLA ON
TOUR: Suella Braverman lands back in the U.K. round about now following her
weekend jaunt to Rwanda. The mini-pack of reporters from friendly outlets who
accompanied her have a scoop from the trip: the home secretary told them
ministers have already held constructive talks with officials at the European
Court of Human Rights to reform the legal injunction known as “section 39
orders” which grounded the Rwanda deportation flights in June. She hopes the
flights can take off this summer. The development splashes the Mail and Express
and gets a prominent slot on the front of the Telegraph.
Making a
mark: The Illegal Migration Bill, which the Rwanda deportation scheme is at the
heart of, is back in the Commons next week, and the on-message hacks say that
if the negotiations are unsuccessful, the legislation includes a “marker”
giving the U.K. government the power to ignore future orders.
Groundbreaking:
The home sec has a joint op ed in the Telegraph with Rwandan Minister of
Foreign Affairs Vincent Biruta in which they hail their “groundbreaking
approach” to tackling the global migration crisis. “The scheme will create a
thriving hub of opportunity for migrants so they can build new lives safely and
legally in Rwanda,” they write.
Small boats
deadline: With ministers proving somewhat cagey about the exact timetable for
fulfilling Sunak’s pledge to “stop the boats,” ITV managed to pin Cabinet
Office Secretary Oliver Dowden down a little. He told correspondent Harry
Horton the government was “committed to doing it by the end of this
parliament.”
Also in the
in-tray: Awaiting Braverman on her return is the independent report by
crossbench peer Louise Casey into failings at the Metropolitan Police, to be
published Tuesday. The Times splashes on a leaked preview suggesting that Casey
will recommend breaking the force up if a radical overhaul of all aspects of
policing in the capital cannot be achieved. The report was commissioned in the
wake of the murder of Sarah Everard by serving officer Wayne Couzens.
Break it
up: The Mail suggests Braverman has indicated that in response to the report
she is minded to make it easier to dismiss misogynistic, racist or corrupt
officers. The Telegraph hears chief constables will have the authority to fire
officers guilty of misconduct as well as gross misconduct, as at present. Among
the other recommendations in the 300-page review is a call for the disbanding
of the elite parliamentary and diplomatic protection (PaDP) unit, where both
Couzens and serial rapist David Carrick worked.
CLIMATE
CRISIS
FINAL
WARNING: A landmark report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is
expected to deliver a scientific “final warning” on the climate emergency
today. Ahead of publication, the Guardian says the report will warn that the
world has only a few years to shift to a low-carbon economy or see catastrophic
outcomes including rising sea levels, extreme drought, flash flooding and
intense heatwaves.
Don’t look
up: In their report, to be published here, the group of top scientists will set
out how world leaders can avoid a calamity by keeping global warming to 1.5C
above pre-industrial levels.
Already too
late? This is the sixth assessment to be published by the IPCC since 1988, and
has been produced in three parts. This final part, known as the “synthesis
report,” will summarize previous warnings. The next report is not due until
2030, by which time the world may already have breached the 1.5C figure. COP
President Alok Sharma tells the paper: “While we are seeing some progress,
frankly, we are moving far too slowly in decarbonizing our economies and
adapting to the changing climate.”
IRAQ
IT WAS 20
YEARS AGO TODAY … that George Bush and Tony Blair ordered the invasion of Iraq,
with results that would be both far-reaching and enduring. Official
commemorations will take place at the National Memorial Arboretum in
Staffordshire, where Defense Minister Alex Chalk will lay a wreath at the Basra
Memorial Wall in honor of the 179 British personnel who lost their lives in the
war. A bugler from the British Army Band will play The Last Post to commence a
minute’s silence.
Lest we
forget: In London, fellow Defense Minister Andrew Murrison, who served in
Operation Telic, the code name for British military operations in Iraq from
2003 to 2011, will lay a wreath at the Iraq and Afghanistan Memorial on the
Victoria Embankment.
Wallace
words: In words issued overnight, Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said: “Marking
20 years since the start of Operation Telic, we remember the 179 British
personnel who lost their lives and pay tribute to them and their families. We
remain committed to the close and enduring partnership the U.K. and Iraq have
today, working together to address shared global security challenges.”
Getting the
band back together: Their names were on everyone’s lips 20 years ago, and
former U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei of the
International Atomic Energy Agency will mark the anniversary of the invasion at
a panel discussion at the Chatham House think tank. The event is both online
and in person from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. — contact Chatham House to reserve a place.
Damning: In
a damning leader, the Times describes the war as a “hubristic act of
overreach,” adding: “The true costs of this folly are immeasurable and the
consequences reverberate to this day.”
**On March
28 at 4:00 p.m. CEST, POLITICO Live is hosting an online event on “Protecting
Europe: How the war in Ukraine changed Europe’s thinking on defense?”. Join
CSIS Director Max Bergamnn, Ambassadors to NATO of France and United Kingdom
Muriel Domenach and David Quarrey as they deep dive into Europe's thinking on
how to best arm itself and where allies should focus their defense priorities
in the coming years. Register today.**
UKRAINE
WAR CRIMES:
Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself (via video link) will open a timely gathering of
international justice ministers hosted by Dominic Raab at Lancaster House this
morning to discuss how best to prosecute war crimes in Ukraine. Coming a few
days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for
Russian President Vladimir Putin, the gathering of ministers from 40 nations will
pledge extra support for war crimes investigators, with the U.K. promising more
in the way of financial and practical support. The conference opens at 10.30
a.m. and Sky will provide pool shots of the opening and closing remarks, and a
presser from 5.30 p.m.
Scene of
the crime: The conference comes after Putin paid a surprise visit to the
devastated town of Mariupol, where he was filmed driving himself around the
town in scenes likened by Vadym Boychenko, Mariupol’s exiled mayor, as like a
murderer returning to the scene of the crime.
Meanwhile,
in Moscow: China’s President Xi Jinping today starts a three-day visit to
Moscow. My POLITICO colleague Stuart Lau considers why Xi is still Putin’s best
friend. “For a start, Beijing’s worldview requires it to stay strategically
close to Russia: As Beijing’s leaders see it, the U.S. is blocking China’s path
to global leadership, aided by European governments, while most of its own
geographical neighbors — from Japan and South Korea to Vietnam and India — are increasingly
skeptical rather than supportive,” Stuart writes.
Now read
this: In Russia, an anti-war drawing can cost you your daughter, reports Eva
Hartog in this story for POLITICO about Alexei Moskalyov and his 12-year-old
daughter Masha, who attracted the attention of the authorities when she drew a
pro-Ukraine picture at school last April. Alexei is now facing two legal cases,
while Masha is in state custody.
BUDGET
THE 1
PERCENT: Five days on from the budget, and Jeremy Hunt’s first financial
settlement has yet to completely fall apart at the seems, which in these
volatile times definitely counts as a win. The Mirror and Guardian do have a
joint scoop suggesting that Hunt’s centerpiece rabbit of scrapping the cap on
pension savings could stop the equivalent of only 100 doctors retiring a year.
How many?
The papers uncovered stats released by Health Minister Will Quince last year
showing that 105 doctors took early retirement in 2021/22 and so might
plausibly have been persuaded by a change in the rules. They suggest this means
Hunt’s move to scrap the 55 percent tax on lifetime pension pots over £1
million would not have an appreciable impact on staff retention.
SHOULDA
KEPT MUM: Former Environment Secretary George Eustice has ruffled a few
feathers after claiming the childcare measures in the budget extending free
nursery care to toddlers would have the effect of undermining stay-at-home
mothers. His suggestion that women have a particular bond with their children
that should be nurtured with support to remain out of the workplace was
criticized by groups including Pregnant Then Screwed. The Guardian has the
story.
LABOUR LAND
AS SEEN IN
THE SUN: It says a lot about Labour’s view of the electoral picture when it
chooses the Sun to launch a policy — and a lot about how the Sun views Labour.
The paper reports the party would introduce criminal sanctions on tech giants
such as Amazon which allow the sale of deadly weapons including so-called
zombie knives.
Mission,
crime: The article acts as a curtain-raiser for what will be a major speech by
leader Keir Starmer on Thursday to set out the latest of Labour’s “missions”
for government, this time on crime. He will draw on his own background as a
former director of public prosecutions to say that “bringing down crime is
personal” to him. Of his plans to get tough on the sale of ornate but deadly
weapons named after zombie horror films, he will say: “If you make money from
the sale of weapons or the radicalization of people online, then you should be
held accountable, just as you would be if you did the same on the streets.”
Bed
blockers: Shadow Care Minister Liz Kendall is on the morning round to talk
about NHS stats obtained by the party showing there are now more patients stuck
in hospital waiting to be discharged than when the government announced a £750
million scheme to help prevent bed-blocking four months ago. There were 13,363
patients awaiting release on March 12, 2023 compared to 13,359 patients on
November 17, 2022, when details of the fund were unveiled. That means one in
seven NHS beds is currently occupied by someone waiting to be discharged.
IN THE
HOUSE: In an in-depth interview with the House magazine’s Tali Fraser, Shadow
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds criticizes SNP leadership candidate and
fellow Christian Kate Forbes over what he describes as her “old fashioned”
views on sexuality and the family.
HAPPY
MEALS: Labour should provide nutritious school meals and healthy eating
classes, according to a Fabian Society report by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater. She
calls for the party to incorporate physical, mental and social wellbeing into a
holistic strategy. It comes as former food czar Henry Dimbleby criticized the
government for its “insane” inaction on tackling obesity.
STRIKES
LATEST
ROH OH:
Just when you thought it was safe to stick your finger in a plug socket or push
a lego brick up your nose, the Guardian reports that members of some of the
biggest health unions are organizing an unofficial campaign to reject the pay
agreement recommended by their leaders.
All out:
The paper’s splash says that a cross-union group called NHS Workers Say No is
phoning, leafleting and WhatsApping members urging them to reject the 5 percent
pay deal negotiated by union leaders last week. The group, which is said to
have 90,000 Facebook members, is urging more strikes to bring the government to
the table with an improved offer.
Back to
work: The RMT ballot on a 9 percent Network Rail offer for rail workers closes
at midday today, with an announcement following soon after. Workers are widely
expected to accept the deal.
All out
again: University staff begin three days of industrial action.
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