London Playbook: Labour holds Chester —
Pestminster returns — Hancock diaries
BY ELENI
COUREA
DECEMBER 2,
2022 8:08 AM CET
POLITICO
London Playbook
By ELENI
COUREA
Good Friday
morning. This is Eleni Courea. Emilio Casalicchio will be back on Monday.
DRIVING THE
DAY
WHILE YOU
WERE SLEEPING: Rishi Sunak suffered a universally expected but nonetheless
bruising blow in his first electoral test since becoming PM, with Labour
winning the City of Chester by-election with an emphatic 13.8 percent swing.
Sam Dixon, a former local council leader, will become Westminster’s newest MP.
The stats:
The Tories suffered their worst result in the constituency since 1832 in terms
of vote share, and came a distant second with 6,335 votes. Labour won 17,309
votes, amounting to 61 percent of the vote share (and handing Dixon a 10,974
majority). The turnout was 40.8 percent.
Just before
2 a.m.: Dixon made a victory speech saying she had won a “typically
Conservative seat” and called for a general election, warning that Rishi Sunak
was on “borrowed time.” Alison McGovern, the shadow DWP secretary and MP for
Wirral South, said the result was “a clear message to Rishi Sunak’s
Conservative government: they are fed up of Tory rule and want the change
Labour offers.”
In the
losers’ corner: Warrington MP Andy Carter told Playbook from the count in
Chester last night: “We are midway through a parliamentary term, 12 years
through a Conservative government and this is a seat Labour has won for the
past three elections. It would be very surprising if we had won Chester.”
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CRUNCHING
THE NUMBERS: James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, who used to run polling
for Theresa May in No. 10, has done some overnight calculations for Playbook of
how this result stacks up against other by-elections. Here’s his take …
What does
the Chester result tell us? Mainly, that the national polls are probably
broadly right on where opinion currently is. The swing of 13.8 percent away
from the Conservatives in Chester is higher than that in Wakefield earlier this
year (where it was 12.7 percent), and is only a touch lower than the 16 percent
implied by the national polls. That is clearly dangerous territory for the
Conservatives.
But
realistically the rune reading should stop there. This is not a Wakefield or a
Tiverton — a seat the Tories need to hold power. The city has been trending
Labour for some time after being won by Ed Miliband in 2015. We can say the
seat is the worst result for the Tories since the 19th century — but we can
also say the swing is way short of the wipeout numbers John Major saw in the
90s.
Chester
merely confirms what we knew before: The Conservatives are currently at a
serious disadvantage with the British people. But we are mid-term. The
Conservatives have only a very narrow path to recovery, but with such a
volatile public, both parties still have a lot to play for.
THE TORY SPIN:
Tory MPs and advisers argue that demographic changes in the area have worked
against them, with Chester increasingly populated by students and commuters
moving out of Liverpool. They also point out that Labour held it in 2019 when
the Tories won their 80-seat landslide.
As a
result: The Tory strategy was to put zero effort in and make that very clear to
everyone. Ministers were not asked to help the campaign. “We’ve not exactly
bust a gut on it,” one MP noted drily. “Expectations are low,” said another. A
third said more directly: “We couldn’t have done less to try to win it.”
The bigger
problem is … many Tory MPs will be unfussed about the result because they now
feel sure they’re going to lose the next election anyway. The challenge for
Rishi Sunak remains to avoid the impression his party is giving up entirely and
preventing a huge exodus of sitting MPs. In that vein, James Forsyth examines
the wave of Tory rising stars taking early retirement from politics, and makes
the point in today’s Spectator that an MP like Chloe Smith elected in 2010 —
just 12 years ago — “has campaigned in four general elections, two referendums
and four Tory leadership contests.” One of the MPs standing down tells Forsyth
that they are “just exhausted.”
One person
who seemingly hasn’t had enough … is Boris Johnson. The ex-PM has told his
local party in Uxbridge and South Ruislip that he will stand again as an MP at
the next election, the Telegraph’s Dominic Penna reported yesterday. Perhaps
not the person Team Sunak were trying to convince.
WHIPPED: On
this week’s Westminster Insider podcast, host Ailbhe Rea looks into the world
of the whips, and has bagged an exclusive interview with Liz Truss’ Chief Whip
Wendy Morton. On top of that Michael Dobbs, Margaret Thatcher’s former chief of
staff and creator of “House of Cards,” tells Ailbhe about the “dark arts” of
the whips of the past, playwright James Graham talks about infiltrating their
shadowy world to write his famous play about the most legendary whipping
operation of all, while Jacqui Smith reveals whether she ever “grabbed anyone
by the balls” while serving as chief whip for Tony Blair.
PESTMINSTER
RETURNS
AND …
ANOTHER ONE: TalkTV’s Kate McCann revealed overnight with help from the Sun’s
Harry Cole that a senior Tory backbencher has been reported by colleagues to
police over allegations of rape and sexual assault. A group of Tory MPs
submitted a third party report to police about the MP relating to allegations
spanning two years, which have also been subject to an investigation by an
independent law firm. Shadow Domestic Violence Minister Jess Phillips tweeted
last night that the story was “flabbergasting.” The MP has not been suspended
from the Tory whip or from party membership, despite McCann reporting that
senior party figures have knew about the allegations for about two years.
Met
statement: A spokesperson for the Met told TalkTV and the Sun: “On October 28,
police received allegations of serious sexual assault reported to have taken
place on unknown dates at undisclosed locations. The reports were submitted via
a third party. Officers are making enquiries into these allegations.”
That’s just
one day after … The Sun reported that a former Tory MP had been arrested last
year for historic sexual offences between 2004 and 2010.
And on top
of … reports that another sitting Tory MP is currently on bail by the Met after
allegations of rape.
AS A GRIM
REMINDER: This is a cross-party problem. The City of Chester by-election was
triggered after a parliamentary watchdog recommended its Labour MP Christian
Matheson be suspended after finding him guilty of serious sexual misconduct.
(He admitted a lesser breach and quit.)
CHRISTMAS
CHAOS
NHS D-DAY:
Unions are in talks to hold a coordinated strike of ambulance workers, nurses
and hospital staff on December 20 that could cause the NHS to grind to a halt,
the Guardian’s Dan Boffey, Dennis Campbell and Pamela Duncan report. They write
that union reps from Unison, GMB and Unite are in intensive talks with the
government about how to “avoid loss of life” and that the latter two could
announce their strike date as soon as today. “Discussions were continuing deep
into Thursday but it is also understood that there is growing consensus that
striking on 20 December would create maximum impact by joining ambulance
workers with more than 100,000 nurses,” the paper reports.
DON’T BE A
GRINCH: Rail Minister Huw Merriman is due to hold talks with RMT General
Secretary Mick Lynch to try to avert disruptive Christmas rail strikes. The
Times splash reveals internal government estimates suggest the action will cost
the rail industry £260 million, on top of the hospitality industry’s estimated
£1.5 billion hit. A rail industry source tells the paper there are “a matter of
days” to call off the strikes or it will be too late to run a timetable.
Merriman tried a new tactic Thursday, urging rail bosses to be “altruistic.”
NOTABLY:
James Forsyth reports in his column for the Times that Sunak has put Oliver
Dowden in charge of coordinating the government’s strike response.
How to keep
track: The Guardian has a piece listing all the strike action planned for
December.
HANCOCK
WATCH
HANCOCK
UNLEASHED: Playbook naively thought the Matt Hancock coverage would die down
after I’m a Celeb had ended. Silly us. Today’s Mail publishes a photo of the
former health secretary sitting on an Australian beach in shorts looking forlornly
into the distance, to go with the first extract of his diaries. Never one to
shy away from publicity, Hancock has also given an “extensive” interview to the
paper where he talks about “falling ‘deeply’ in love with Gina Coladangelo”
during his time at DHSC.
Moving
swiftly on: Several papers pick up the story from Hancock’s diaries — which are
being serialized by the Mail — revealing there was a “bonkers” proposal from
the MoJ to release all prisoners at the start of the pandemic to prevent them
from catching the virus in jail.
And and
and: As well as going into the power struggles between ministers responding to
the pandemic, the MH diaries promise to respond to Dominic Cummings’ dramatic
character assassination last year. The Mail says tantalizingly that “in the
coming days, Mr Hancock will paint a very different picture as he finally
reveals his own side of the story.” Anyone sharing Playbook’s grim fascination
with all this can read more on Mail+ at 5 p.m. today.
With good
timing: Hancock, who landed in the U.K. on Wednesday, is back in parliament
today for the second reading of his private members bill on dyslexia.
Next steps?
The Spectator’s James Forsyth suggests Hancock might seek the Tory nomination
for mayor of London. Unfortunately he still has a way to go in turning around
wider public opinion, according to Redfield & Wilton Strategies polling for
London Playbook this week. Almost half of those surveyed (44 percent) said
their view of Hancock hadn’t changed since the show aired, although he did win
over 30 percent who said their view was more positive after his jungle antics.
A hefty 57 percent of those R&W asked said they had tuned into the show —
it turns out it wasn’t just Playbook’s Andrew McDonald watching every night.
He’s a
celebrity, keep him out: A majority of those with a view thought Hancock should
still be left out in the cold by Sunak after going AWOL from parliament to
appear on the reality show. Some 48 percent said he shouldn’t have the Tory
whip restored when he returns to Westminster, while 35 percent think he should
be allowed back into the fold.
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TODAY IN
WESTMINSTER
‘DUMBBELL
DOM’: Dominic Raab demands that an hour a day is blocked out from his
ministerial diary so he can head to the gym, Raab-watcher John Stevens reports
in the Mirror. Officials have complained they have to stay at their desks late
into the evening to work around the deputy PM’s schedule as he breaks a sweat
in the MoJ basement. A source close to Raab told the Mirror he goes to the gym
in lieu of taking a lunch break.
SLEAZE
CRACKDOWN: Ministers and senior civil servants could have to sign legally
binding commitments to abide by Whitehall sleaze rules after leaving under
plans being considered by the Cabinet Office, the Times’ Oli Wright writes.
Those who breach the terms could lose part of their pension or severance
payment. The proposal is part of several steps mooted to crack down on
rule-breaking and the “revolving door” between the government and private
sector in a landmark PACAC committee report out today.
Notably:
PACAC gives Suella Braverman (and Rishi Sunak) both barrels, saying the PM’s
decision to reappoint her so soon after she resigned over breaking the
ministerial code sets a “dangerous precedent” for how such breaches are dealt
with.
STEELY
RESOLVE: Michael Gove is expected to approve the reopening of a coking coal
mine in Cumbria after the decision was repeatedly postponed, the Sun’s Natasha
Clark says.
BROKEN
CHILDCARE: Onward — whose former director is now deputy chief of staff in No.
10 — has a report out on childcare today championed by Tory MP Siobhan Baillie.
It recommends introducing a system of childcare credits and scrapping the
current maternity and paternity leave system in favor of a 12 month block of
parental leave that parents can divvy up between themselves.
FREE SPEECH
ROW: Ministers are watering down their planned bill to protect free speech in
universities, Louisa Clarence-Smith reports in the Telegraph splash. Ministers
have put up amendments which would make going to court to seek compensation a
last resort.
SPY CLAUSE:
Meanwhile an amendment to the Online Safety Bill has been branded a “spy
clause” because it makes it easier for ministers to demand that messaging
services such as WhatsApp access their users’ messages, according to the i’s
Richard Vaughan.
SPEAKING OF
SPIES: POLITICO’s Matt Karnitschnig takes a dive into the dark world of
state-led assassinations in this long-form piece, out this morning.
NO VAT: The
Mail’s Archie Mitchell has Tory MPs Jacob Rees-Mogg, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown and
Nickie Aicken calling for the government to reintroduce plans for VAT-free
shopping for tourists.
PEOPLE’S
VOTE: The big question for rebellious Tories is whether their various campaigns
for a government change of course, which have made new PM Rishi Sunak’s first
month less than straightforward, are striking a chord with voters. Redfield
& Wilton Strategies polling for Playbook this week gives us a few clues about
the public mood.
Getting the
wind up: Former Leveling-up Secretary Simon Clarke’s pro-onshore wind campaign
seems to chime with public opinion that domestic energy production needs to be
firing on all cylinders. Majorities of Britons would support the U.K. building
more wind farms (70 percent), a wind farm being built in their locality (66
percent), and more permits for oil and gas drilling in the North Sea (51
percent). A huge 68 percent would prefer having a wind farm in their locality
if it was the alternative to having either a nuclear power station or a
fracking well, the polling suggests.
Jury’s out:
On housebuilding targets, the response was less definitive. More than one in
three (36 percent) of those surveyed said they either supported or strongly
supported Tory MP attempts to ban councils from taking house-building targets
into account when deciding on planning applications. Just 15 percent either
opposed or strongly opposed the move, although around a third (32 percent)
appeared to be agnostic about the issue.
HOUSE OF
COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with a private members’ bills day, starting with
Tory MP Greg Smith’s bill on preventing equipment theft. Matt Hancock’s
dyslexia bill — which he went all the way to the Australian jungle to
promote/not mention once in two weeks — is third on the order paper.
HOUSE OF
LORDS: The Lords also has PMBs from 10 a.m.
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BEYOND THE
M25
BLACKFORD
OUT, FLYNN IN: Stephen Flynn is the overwhelming favorite to become the SNP’s
new chief in Westminster, after Ian Blackford was finally forced out by his
disgruntled MPs Thursday. POLITICO’s Esther Webber has a write-up here. The
humble crofter’s leadership had been on the rocks for a while with rumors
swirling about coups and leadership challenges since Playbook’s Andrew McDonald
first reported on some of the internal discontent back in March. SNP MPs don’t
expect anyone else except the bright spark energy spokesperson Flynn to bother
putting themselves forward at Tuesday’s annual Westminster SNP AGM, where MPs
will elect their new leader.
Words mean
nothing: Flynn, November 17, in response to the Times’ Kieran Andrews laying
out his plans to challenge Blackford: “I can confirm I’ve no intention of
standing.” … Blackford, November 23, in an interview with the Scotsman: “I look
forward to being the MP that leads the SNP group out of Westminster for the
last time.”
Jumped before
pushed: Andrew now hears that while Blackford didn’t want to step down, he was
made aware this week that Flynn has more than enough firm support among SNP MPs
to ensure that any attempt to cling on at the Tuesday AGM would have been
futile. There’s been a feeling in key parts of the SNP group for some time that
a fresh start in Westminster would do the party some good, particularly among
some of the relative veteran MPs elected in 2015. Numerous scandals and
missteps since Blackford was reelected last year — including offering support
for Patrick Grady and claiming the U.K. would pay for an Indy Scotland’s
pensions — gradually convinced a majority of MPs over to the side of the
plotters and made Blackford’s position untenable.
The
official line: Blackford insisted to the BBC that he hadn’t been pressured into
resigning and was delighted to be taking on a new role as Sturgeon’s business
ambassador.
RUNNER AND
RIDER PEN PORTRAIT: Flynn is expected to be the only candidate. A 34-year-old
member of the 2019 intake, he is seen as a rising star in nationalist circles.
One ally pointed to his time on Aberdeen City Council as an example of his
spark. After being elected to the council in 2015 aged 26, he was selected to
lead the 15-strong SNP group just eight months later. Good at the slick
presentation stuff. Less clear what he’s planning to actually do differently
from Blackford in the role. Planning a clearout of the former leader’s allies
at least, according to the Times, while there is speculation he might invite
marmite figure Joanna Cherry back on to the front bench. Has been happy to
vocally disagree with Nicola Sturgeon in the past. Will he row in behind her
contentious plan to turn the next election into a de-facto referendum?
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