Brussels Playbook: Macron’s win? — EPP in Athens — Dublin gets tough

 

Brussels Playbook: Macron’s win? — EPP in Athens — Dublin gets tough

BY NICHOLAS VINOCUR

DECEMBER 2, 2022 7:07 AM CET

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/macrons-win-epp-in-athens-dublin-gets-tough

 

POLITICO Brussels Playbook

By NICK VINOCUR

with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH

 

DRIVING THE DAY: MACRON RETURNS  Share on Twitter  Share on Facebook  Share on Linkedin  Share on Handclap1

PEACE IN OUR TIME? BIDEN OFFERS IRA TWEAKS: With Europeans fuming over U.S. plans to subsidize local industry, French President Emmanuel Macron may have averted a transatlantic trade war during his state visit to Washington D.C. by nabbing an apparent concession from President Joe Biden.

 

What Biden said: “There’s tweaks that we can make that can fundamentally make it easier for European countries to participate and/or be on their own. But that is something that is a matter to be worked out,” Biden told reporters.

 

So, friends? “I never intended to exclude folks who were cooperating with us. That was not the intention.”

 

Prelude: The olive branch was extended after weeks of escalating rhetoric from Europeans who have accused Washington of profiting from Russia’s war on Ukraine and hurting the EU’s economy with “Buy American” provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act.

 

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NSYNC: Macron, whom Biden called a “friend” during the visit, seemed pleased with the trip, saying he and Biden had agreed to “resynchronize our approaches” to providing government support for industries, Clea Caulcutt reports from Paris.

 

Peacenik: Another satisfied customer may be Margrethe Vestager, the European Commission’s competition chief, who warned in an interview with POLITICO against getting into a “tit-for-tat” dispute with the Americans over trade. More from Giorgio Leali here.

 

Damn you, fine print: Yet exactly what Biden is offering — if anything — remains to be seen. Europeans are pushing for carveouts to the IRA that would allow EU carmakers to benefit from U.S. tax breaks even if the vehicles are made outside the United States. But U.S. Democratic lawmakers don’t seem to be in the mood for that, with Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow inviting Europeans to “come and build plants here and then be a part of it.”

 

NOT IMPRESSED: European Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton. The Frenchman pulled out of Monday’s meeting of the EU-U.S. Transatlantic Trade and Tech Council in Washington because not enough time was going to be devoted to the dispute over the IRA, Mark Scott and Stuart Lau report.

 

Not invited: In an intriguing tidbit in their story, Mark and Stuart also report that three separate EU sources told them part of the reason Breton wasn’t going was because he had not officially been invited to the Kennedy Center Honors, which recognize the contribution of those in the performing arts. Breton’s aide denied those claims.

 

More on the IRA in this week’s EU Confidential podcast, which also includes on-the-ground reporting from Ukraine.

 

EPP IN ATHENS  Share on Twitter  Share on Facebook  Share on Linkedin  Share on Handclap

DUKING IT OUT: Two years ahead of the next European parliamentary election, Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen will join Parliament President Roberta Metsola, as well as Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis, EPP leader Manfred Weber and other conservative grandees in Athens for two days of closed-door talks — and a family photo.

 

On the menu: The aim for the gathering, which begins today, is to start thrashing out common positions and get the troops in line ahead of elections in Spain, Poland, Finland, Greece and Cyprus, EPP Secretary-General Thanasis Bakolas told Playbook ahead of the trip. “I want them to duke it out,” he added.

 

Why the long face? Since the last European election, the EPP has lost its most prominent member in former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and currently holds power in none of the EU’s largest countries.

 

Just Spitzballing here: Many EPPers are also scarred by the fact Weber, their Spitzenkandidat/lead candidate during the 2019 European election, was rejected by the Council in his bid for the Commission presidency. “We don’t want this to happen again,” said Bakolas. “The most important thing is to get our leaders together, to lock them in a room and talk shop” — an exercise that Bakolas said would be repeated twice in 2023 and once in January 2024 for a party congress to elect a Spitzenkandidat.

 

Big thoughts: The EPP members will try to broker broad agreement on matters like transnational lists, EU policy on defense, foreign policy and migration. “I want them to think big, to decide where Europe is going. We can’t leave this to the end,” he said.

 

Reality bites: Bakolas acknowledged the EPP badly needed an electoral boost. “We gotta win big, especially in the big countries,” he said, adding he was confident that opposition leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo would “be PM” in Spain, and that the party would do well in Germany and Portugal. “We need to maintain one seat [in the Council]. We will win with Mitsotakis, and we need to gain three more seats in the Council. That’s the goals in 2023.”

 

ECR dancing partners: Even if the EPP does well, it may need support from other parties to weigh in on the EU top jobs. Asked if the EPP could hook up with the European Conservatives and Reformists of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Bakolas said: “I don’t understand why I can’t play this political game like it’s played in every other country.”

 

On the ECR: “The ECR is a dual picture: one part has very little difference with me. The other part is so far off that I can’t work with it.”

 

On Meloni: “She’s pragmatic. She’s smart. She’s open. Of course I’m going to talk to her … Whether she proves herself a credible leader, a serious interlocutor, it’s up to her,” Bakolas said, adding that the EPP’s red lines were “pro-Europe, pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine.”

 

Was Meloni within those red lines? “Yes, so far. But we’ll see,” he added.

 

Who’s going to Athens? A selection of EPP government leaders will attend (Cyprus, Romania, Slovakia, Greece, Austria, Croatia) as well as the deputy prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Italy and Belgium and a bevy of European lawmakers.

 

Who ain’t? Journalists.

 

 

RUSSIAN WAR FALLOUT  Share on Twitter  Share on Facebook  Share on Linkedin  Share on Handclap1

OIL PRICE CAP LATEST: The European Commission proposed a Russian oil price cap set at $60 per barrel on Thursday, in a bid to get all EU capitals on board, Barbara Moens reports. As of last night, the trio of EU countries holding out for a lower, tougher cap level — Poland, Estonia and Lithuania — were still weighing up whether to support the new price and thus enable the G7 and the EU to finally greenlight the price cap measure.

 

Lower, lower: Pressure from the three hawkish countries has so far hammered down the proposed price cap level from $65-$70, to $62, and now to $60. It’s still close to the price at which Russian Urals crude already trades — reflecting the G7’s wider intention to ensure the cap trims Russian export revenues (which finance President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine) without severely restricting the flows of oil on the global market.

 

Expert view: Simone Tagliapietra, senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank, said a price cap of $60 per barrel “would not do anything to hit Putin’s oil rent right now, but could be acceptable if we use this to set up the system, ensure it works, and then tighten over time to increase pressure.”

 

WHAT HAPPENED TO ZEITENWENDE? Germany’s Social Democratic Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht is under fire from her own coalition partners over reports she failed to procure sufficient ammunition for the armed forces. Lambrecht sought to take last-minute action this week by writing to Finance Minister Christian Lindner from the liberal FDP, asking him to “immediately provide” more money for ammo.

 

Get lost: Finance State Secretary Steffen Saebisch responded on Lindner’s behalf in a spicy letter, seen by POLITICO, rebuffing the request and telling Lambrecht the real problem was her department’s “complicated” and “inconsistent” planning. The Greens have also criticized Lambrecht.

 

Scholz backing: But Chancellor Olaf Scholz has backed Lambrecht, telling reporters Thursday she “is doing everything she can to ensure that this succeeds.” Hans von der Burchard has more.

 

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TWITTER WARS  Share on Twitter  Share on Facebook  Share on Linkedin  Share on Handclap

ELON’S NEXT HEADACHE: Fresh from a grilling by Single Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, Twitter boss Elon Musk may soon find himself answering to another European: Ireland’s privacy watchdog, Helen Dixon, who oversees the company’s operations in the EU.

 

Scrapin’ mad: A spokesperson at the Irish Data Protection Commission told POLITICO that Dixon’s office had sent a letter to Twitter seeking more information about reports of “scraping” that saw millions of users’ profile details, including phone numbers and email addresses, leaked online. Read my story here.

 

Say what? If “scraping” rings a bell, it’s because the Dublin-based regulator last week fined Meta €265 million over a similar incident. That fine brings the total of privacy penalties imposed by the DPC to almost €1 billion since the General Data Protection Regulation, the EU’s privacy rulebook, came online in 2018.

 

Time to reflect: Having spent months investigating Ireland’s cozy relationship with Big Tech, I believe some credit is due to the regulator for its record enforcing the world’s most stringent privacy rules. And while tech giants can shrug off fines, they can’t so easily dismiss the structural changes demanded in the rulings — like better protecting the data of teenagers on Instagram.

 

Going soft: It’s not just me — even the regulator’s toughest critics are softening. Here’s a text from Max Schrems, the Austrian privacy campaigner who’s twice struck down a data deal between Europe and the United States: “It seems the DPC is slowly shifting gears on the big fines, even if they were in reality often forced by the EDPB [European Data Protection Board] to do so. It will be interesting to see how the appeals of these fines are then handled in the Irish courts. We don’t yet see smaller fines for average violations, like in individual complaints by citizens.”

 

IN OTHER NEWS  Share on Twitter  Share on Facebook  Share on Linkedin  Share on Handclap1

HUNGARIAN UPDATE: In the latest installment of Hungary’s rule-of-law saga, Thursday’s meeting of EU ambassadors saw countries divided between two camps, our colleague Paola Tamma writes in to report. One, led by France, Germany, Italy and others — around a dozen countries in total — wants the Commission to produce a new assessment of Hungary’s achievements under the rule-of-law conditionality mechanism, which takes into account the most recent reforms and commitments undertaken since the Commission’s November 19 cutoff.

 

Why? They argue the Commission’s proposal needs to be proportionate and take Hungary’s most recent efforts into account. Plus, Germany wants to unblock €18 billion in aid for Ukraine, while France really wants to get the minimum corporate tax over the line (background here). They hope that by showing him some sympathy, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will reciprocate by dropping his vetoes.

 

The other camp, led by Benelux, the Scandinavians and Lithuania, wants to vote on the basis of the existing Commission proposal to freeze the €7.5 billion in EU funds for Hungary, arguing that Brussels’ assessment points to structural failures, thus anything less would be throwing the rule of law out the window.

 

What now: The rule-of-law conditionality is still on the Ecofin agenda of December 6, but it will now only be an “exchange of views,” with the issue likely to be kicked down the road, either to another meeting of finance ministers — date TBD — or to the European Council meeting in mid-December. But Orbán himself may decide to escalate the row over the €7.5 billion to the European Council, Hungarian and EU officials told our Morning Financial Services colleagues.

 

FUTURE OF EUROPE — IN A GALAXY FAR AWAY: The so-called Conference on the Future of Europe is still bogged down in discussion, disagreement and hand-wringing, as the EU prepares to give its first official update on the project today, Suzanne Lynch reports. In the run-up to the event, the Council of the EU pushed for the gathering to be delayed, according to multiple officials from each institution.

 

Parliament wins the turf war: EU institutions also sparred over where to host the ceremony, which will bring together 500 citizens as well as the heads of the European Parliament, Commission and Council. Initially, the Commission, the EU’s executive arm, wanted to host the follow-up event. But the European Parliament ultimately took over, with Parliament members insisting the EU’s democratically elected body should be at the fore. Here’s the full rundown from Suzanne.

 

TOP READ — LICENSE TO KILL: Matt Karnitschnig takes a dive into the dark world of state-led assassinations in this long-form piece, out this morning. “There’s also nothing new about Iran’s love of assassination. Indeed, many scholars trace the word ‘assassin’ to Hasan-i Sabbah, a 12th-century Persian missionary who founded the ‘Order of Assassins,’ a brutal force known for quietly eliminating adversaries,” he writes.

 

FRIDAY FEATURES: “The revenge of Big Tobacco” is the subject of Paul Dallison’s latest Declassified humor column … and on this week’s Westminster Insider podcast, host Ailbhe Rea looks into the world of British whips (the officials tasked with ensuring party discipline in a legislature).

 

**What’s the current state of play of EU legislation on creating a removal certification system? Tune in to POLITICO Live’s Spotlight “The EU’s carbon removal gamble” on December 7 at 12:30 p.m. CET, our experts will be debating this and much more. Register now!**

 

AGENDA  Share on Twitter  Share on Facebook  Share on Linkedin  Share on Handclap

Brussels/Central European Time.

 

— Conference on the Future of Europe feedback event; Commissioners Margaritis Schinas and Dubravka Šuica among those participating. Welcoming speech by European Parliament President Roberta Metsola 9 a.m.; press conference at 12:30 p.m. Program. Watch.

 

— Competitiveness Council (research and space) in Brussels from 8:30 a.m. Press conference on research at 1:15 p.m., on space at 5 p.m. Watch.

 

— Neighborhood Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi in Serbia. Signing ceremony at 11:30 a.m. Watch. Várhelyi also meets with Prime Minister Ana Brnabić and other ministers.

 

— EU top diplomat Josep Borrell visits Poland; gives press statement at the military unit in Brzeg (time tbc).

 

— Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson meets with Sweden’s EU Affairs Minister Jessika Roswall and Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer in Stockholm.

 

— Commission Vice President Věra Jourová in Czech Republic; speaks at event Media Capture and the European Media Freedom Act.

 

— Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis is in Canada; meets EU ambassadors; meets with Canadian International Trade Minister Mary Ng, with a press conference at 8:30 p.m.

 

— European People’s Party summit in Athens, Greece.

 

— ALDE Party Council Meeting in Bratislava, Slovakia. From 9 a.m. Program.