Closing
the Balkan Route: Will Greece Become a Refugee Bottleneck?
By
Giorgos Christides, Juliane von Mittelstaedt, Peter Müller and
Maximilian Popp
With
EU officials considering border closures along the Balkan refugee
route, Greece is worried that it will become overwhelmed by migrants.
The EU has chastised Greece for not securing its external border, but
failings can be found in Brussels too.
February
09, 2016 – 05:46 PM
At five o'clock in
the morning last Tuesday: Macedonia has once again closed its border,
and just a few hours later, chaos reigns. Eighty buses with 4,000
refugees have been stopped by the Greek police 20 kilometers from the
frontier and they are now waiting in a gas-station parking lot. Bus
drivers argue, refugees jostle on the overfilled lot and overwhelmed
police officers yell orders. "Macedonia, Macedonia," the
people waiting scream, "open the border!"
But today, the
border remains closed to most people. And if it were up to Brussels
and the Germans, it would remain that way -- that is, to anyone not
from Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan. Since mid-November, Macedonia has
tightened its border controls and whoever isn't from one these three
countries is turned away. Now, many people's dreams of Europe come to
an end here, in Idomene.
For it has recently
become clear that Turkey is both unable and unwilling to stop the
flow of refugees. As a result, the EU is placing its bets on
Macedonia, with a plan that has the support of European Commission
President Jean-Claude Juncker.
Last year, the
majority of the over 850,000 refugees traveling along the Balkan
route went through Macedonia. If authorities have their way, that
will come to an end. "Macedonia is our second line of defense,"
says a high-ranking EU official. Several EU states have approved the
deployment of 82 officers in Macedonia with the task of improving
border protection. Financial support is to follow.
If Macedonia reduces
the number of people it allows into the country, it will lessen the
pressure on Germany and Austria. It will also mean that more people
will stay in Greece -- and, Brussels hopes, place additional pressure
on Greece to better protect its borders.
Idomene is a case
study of what would happen were Europe to seal its borders and shut
down the Balkan Route, the path most migrants take on their way to
Germany and the rest of Europe. The result would be a massive backup
of hundreds of thousands of refugees in Greece.
And this in a
country that is in a deep recession, and where every fourth citizen
is unemployed. It is a country where angry farmers, teachers,
doctors, lawyers, taxi drivers and ferry workers -- actually everyone
-- is opposed to the government's austerity measures. And it is a
country that is once again in danger of sliding into its next big
political crisis. The country will face big problems if Prime
Minister Alexis Tsipras can't find a compromise with the country's
international creditors, who are pushing for tough reforms. Or if
Greece is made to bear the burden of the refugee crisis.
'Greece is Like
Afghanistan'
When Macedonia
closes its border for even just a few hours, thousands of people
accumulate: including children, the elderly, pregnant women, sick
people. There may be a reception center, with tents, blankets and
toilets, directly next to the border fence with a capacity of 1,200
people, but when it's full, most people spend their nights outside,
often for days at a time.
At the same time,
thousands of people are arriving on the Greek islands every day --
over 67,000 in January alone. And according to UNICEF, more than a
third of the arrivals are minors; almost two thirds of the people who
are passing the Macedonian border are women and children. They are
making the risky crossing in winter out of fear that the route to the
north will soon be shut off. Some 400 people have already drowned
this year, including many children. For now, the impending closure of
the border is more of a draw than a deterrent.
Mukhtar from Herat,
Afghanistan intends to wait at the border until it is open again, no
matter how long it takes. He is 18 years old and travelling alone. He
fled his country's poverty and hopelessness and almost drowned
shortly before before reaching the Greek island of Chios, he says,
but the Greek coast guard saved him. Like almost all of the other
people here, he wants to go to Germany, "the only country where
refugees are being helped." Apply for asylum in Greece? Mukhtar
laughs. "Greece is like Afghanistan, there is nothing here for
us refugees."
Mukhtar has the
right passport and will likely ultimately be allowed to cross. But
what happens to those who are not allowed to continue their journey?
What does it mean for Greece if Europe is drawing its "second
line of defense" here?
Many will try to
cross into Europe anyway, illegally via the Macedonian border with
the help of fake documents or by following the new routes through
Albania and Croatia -- or by boat to Italy. But all others are stuck
in Greece.
This despite the
fact that since 2011, Germany has declined to send refugees back to
Greece, which the Dublin Regulation stipulates, out of human rights
considerations. The German Interior Ministry just extended the pause
in deportations until June. According to a report by the Gemeinsames
Analyse- und Strategiezentrum illegale Migration (Joint Analysis and
Strategy Center on Illegal Immigration), many refugees in Greece live
on the streets, even children and neo-nazis periodically hunt them
down. The conditions for many refugees in Greece are described by the
German authorities as "inhumane." And still, the country is
potentially being turned into a giant refugee camp.
According to a
confidential memo from the German Foreign Office, a backup of
refugees would "inevitably lead to uncontrollable humanitarian
conditions and security problems within days." Migration
researcher Franck Düvell from Oxford University warns that it would
lead to "downright apocalyptic scenarios": Greece would
collapse within a few weeks, he believes.
Criticism of Athens
Officials in
Brussels are seemingly aware of this, which is why they are currently
trying to balance partial border closings, the imposition of better
controls in Greece and the public admonishing of Athens.
In a confidential,
but perhaps not entirely accidentally leaked, report, the EU
Commission describes the findings of its inspectors on the islands of
Chios and Samos and on the land border with Turkey in November. Their
conclusion: Greece has "seriously neglected" its duty to
control its outer borders.
The list of
shortcomings, the report claims, is long: The registration of the
refugees isn't working, because there aren't devices for taking
fingerprints and the Internet sometimes stops working; there aren't
enough officials; there are too few boats to guard the coast;
passports are not being compared with databases, including those of
Interpol.
"The major
culprit isn't Greece," Greek Minister of Immigration Policy
Ioannis Mouzalas says. He admits that registration in the initial
reception centers known as "hotspots" is going slowly, and
that things are behind schedule. But he claims the EU report is
exaggerated, and that, either way, it is now outdated. Additionally,
he claims, the EU has only sent Greece 800 of the 1,800 requested
Frontex officials, and financial help for the purchase of fingerprint
readers only came the previous week. He argues that the delays are a
"convenient excuse" for the EU.
Mouzalas is furious
that Greece is being pilloried while the most important mechanism to
solve the problem is not being implemented: the distribution quota.
Last fall, European leaders agreed to redistribute 66,400 refugees
from Greece. So far, nine countries have only offered up 305 spots.
Only 157 people have been relocated, a mere 10 to Germany. "Instead
of chastising Greece ..., it would be more productive to do something
about those states that sabotage the relocation scheme," says
Mouzalas.
Migration researcher
Düvell also finds the EU's accusations "deeply unfair, cynical
and shameful." He has conducted research himself in Greece and
in Turkey -- and has come to the conclusion that it is impossible for
Athens to stop migration to Europe, or even slow it down, on its own.
"The EU member states are needed. They need to find a way to
fairly distribute asylum-seekers across Europe," says Düvell.
Brussel's criticism, he argues, is a "cheap trick," in
order to "distract people from the failures of the EU states in
the refugee crisis."
Misplaced Anger
A confidential
report by the German parliament administration from January 29
likewise suggests that the EU redistribution program is in danger of
falling apart due to the lack in willingness by member states to take
in refugees.
The criticism of
Greece also seems unfair because international law makes it illegal
to simply send refugees back to Turkey. In the past, the Greeks were
reprimanded for pushing away boats with refugees and Alexis Tsipras'
government has mostly stopped these "push-backs." Now it is
being criticized for doing the opposite. The German government is
aware of this dilemma: According to an internal report by the
"hotspot" commissioner of the German government from
December, Turkey is the "central player in the reduction"
of the numbers of refugees. "The Greeks can only save the
refugees, but not stop the smugglers."
For this reason, the
Netherlands government has pushed for a plan in which refugees would
be directly sent back from the Greek islands to Turkey on ferries. In
return, the EU member states should then be willing to accept a
contingent of 250,000 refugees every year from Turkey. But that is
unrealistic as long as the Europe-wide distribution doesn't work.
And regardless, the
suggestion is legally problematic for two reasons: For one, the EU
Charter of Fundamental Rights stipulates that asylum applications
must be individually evaluated. And although Greece just declared
Turkey to be a "secure third country" to which refugees may
be deported, mass returns are unlikely, Düvell believes.
He asks, "Why
should Erdogan act as Europe's bouncer?" The memo by the
European Commission therefore exists to justify the upcoming
extension of the temporary border controls, like those that have been
introduced in Germany and Austria. According to the Schengen Border
Code, there needs to be a lack in supervision of the outer borders
for the closure of the interior borders to be allowable. The ultimate
goal is that of saving Schengen: An end to the free movement of goods
and people would be especially damaging to Germany and the northern
countries.
Mouzalas, the Greek
Minister of Immigration Policy, also believes that Brussel's threats
to kick his country out of the Schengen Zone amount to fear-mongering
and, legally speaking, nonsense. Anyways: "Whatever happens with
Schengen, the migrant flows will not be affected."
He is much more
afraid that the countries on the Balkan route will close down their
borders -- all the way to the north. For this reason, he is putting
his faith in the most hated woman in his homeland: the German
chancellor. "Angela Merkel is under pressure, so I fear that at
some point the German border will close." And then he says
something that is very unusual for a Greek. "Germany is right
now the voice of reason in Europe."
Eroded Trust
In order to avoid
giving the Europeans a reason to shut the borders, Tsipras has now
decreed that, by mid-February, all five "hotspots" and two
new reception centers shall be operational. In order for that to
happen quickly, he has assigned the task to the army. One of the
reception centers is to be built west of Thessaloniki, on Military
Base 1090. A ghost town, with roofless barracks, covered in garbage
and weeds, the only living things are a couple of growling, snarling
guard dogs. In fewer than two weeks, 4,000 refugees are to be housed
here.
The Delta
municipality, in which the military base is located, is poor, there
are drug dealers and criminals. "The government didn't even ask
us in advance," complains Delta's mayor, Mimis Fotopoulos. "The
people here aren't so concerned about the refugees themselves,"
he says. "They are concerned because they don't trust the
government to enforce law and order. And they don't trust Europe,
which seems to want to unload its problems onto Greece."
Only on one point
are the citizens of Delta optimistic: They think it's completely
unrealistic that the military base will be ready to house refugees in
two weeks.
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