sábado, 5 de março de 2016

Da confiança dos mercados à desconfiança dos cidadãos / Teresa de Sousa


Da confiança dos mercados à desconfiança dos cidadãos

Nunca a Europa foi tão mal vista pelos europeus, nunca a esperança desceu tão baixo e a confiança pesou tão pouco.

Teresa de Sousa / 05/03/2016 / PÚBLICO
1.
Em Abril de 2013, o The Guardian escrevia em letras grandes que a confiança dos europeus na Europa tinha atingido o seu valor mais baixo de sempre. O jornal britânico referia-se a um inquérito de opinião de Bruxelas, do qual foram destacados os seis maiores países da União, devidamente analisados por Ignacio Torreblanca, investigador do European Council on Foreign Relations e habitual colunista do El País. O académico espanhol escrevia que o declínio vertiginoso da confiança na União nestes seis países se tinha transformado num pesadelo para os governos europeus, a sul como a norte, revelando uma profunda crise de legitimidade política e democrática. “O estrago é tão profundo que não interessa se vem de um credor ou de um devedor, de um futuro membro do euro ou do Reino Unido: todos estão pior”, escrevia o académico espanhol. “As pessoas pensam que a sua democracia está a ser subvertida pela forma como a crise do euro está a ser conduzida”. O que é notável é que, quase três anos depois, este alerta expresso em números não teve quaisquer consequências. Pelo contrário, o desalinhamento entre a partilha dos poderes orçamentais e económicos (partilha é apenas uma forma elegante de dizer imposição) ao nível europeu e as preferências dos cidadãos nacionais não parou de aumentar. A desconfiança permaneceu. As divisões agravaram-se. A paisagem política mudou acentuadamente, penalizando os partidos centrais e alimentando os movimentos anti-sistema. A Europa fechou-se sobre si própria enquanto o mundo mudava lá fora a grande velocidade. Quando deu por ele, tinha outra crise à porta, ainda mais profunda, porque toca nos seus valores essenciais. As enormes brechas abertas pela crise do euro deixaram passar facilmente as profundas divisões reveladas pela crise dos refugiados, que se traduz hoje numa guerra de todos contra todos, num concurso para ver quem consegue apresentar medidas mais dissuasoras, no regresso das fronteiras e dos muros, ameaçando tornar-se numa crise humanitária de proporções gigantescas que “a Europa decidiu auto-infligir-se”.

2.
Depois de seis anos de crise, a confiança começa a ser um bem em vias de extinção, ameaçando a partilha de soberania que está na génese da integração. Jacques Delors chamava-lhe “espírito de família”, mas era noutro tempo, quando a Europa era ainda ocidental e quando a “igualdade entre os Estados”, inscrita nos tratados, obrigava a encontrar consensos. Os europeus acreditavam, e tinham razões para isso, que a Europa lhes era útil porque lhes garantia a prosperidade e a paz e permitia preservar um “modelo social europeu” de longe o mais generoso do mundo. Viram-na como uma protecção, quando a globalização começou a soprar mais forte. A União não precisava de qualquer outra forma de legitimação. Depois tudo começou a mudar. O fim da ordem de Ialta permitiu alargar a União Europeia à dimensão do continente, correspondendo ao “interesse vital” da Alemanha unificada, que “queria ver-se rodeada de Ocidente por todos os lados”, na expressão feliz do historiador Timothy Garton Ash. Alargar a Europa era, de resto, um “dever histórico” para com aqueles que a II Guerra deixara do lado errado da História, e um objectivo estratégico para a Europa, de forma a expandir a democracia e a estabilidade a todo o continente. A Alemanha já tinha sacrificado o seu mais poderoso símbolo nacional, o marco, no altar da integração europeia.

3.
Tudo voltou a mudar com a crise financeira de 2008, que se transformou rapidamente numa Grande Recessão. Foi nessa altura que Berlim viu na crise da dívida soberana a oportunidade para fazer do euro a verdadeira moeda alemã. Foram tempos de vendaval político, de sofrimento económico e social, de crescente desconfiança, que deixaram marcas profundas e que mudaram as regras do jogo da própria União. A confiança foi o primeiro e mais visível dano colateral. Esgotou-se nas profundas divisões entre o Norte rico e o Sul indisciplinado e “preguiçoso”, transformadas em preconceitos “morais” e “culturais”, e a divisão entre credores e devedores passou a dominar as políticas da UE. A crise dos refugiados aumentou ainda mais as divisões e as desconfianças, opondo todos contra todos, numa lógica do salve-se quem puder, sem rumo e sem sentido, que hoje ameaça a própria ideia de comunidade. Nunca a Europa foi tão mal vista pelos europeus, nunca a esperança desceu tão baixo e a confiança pesou tão pouco. Com um problema adicional, que é a descrença na própria democracia. As duas crises influenciam-se e condicionam-se.

A crise de refugiados divide a Europa DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP
4.
Mas vamos a alguns números. No Eurobarómetro divulgado na Primavera de 2015 pela Comissão, verifica-se uma ligeira melhoria no nível de confiança dos europeus na Europa, mesmo que a média esconda diferenças relevantes. Em 2013, este valor tinha atingido o nível mais baixo de sempre (34%), subindo agora para os 40%. A razão tem a ver com os primeiros sinais de retoma económica e a queda do desemprego. O mesmo estudo põe em evidência também percepções radicalmente diferentes sobre o estado da economia: 86% dos alemães consideram que a situação económica é boa; em Portugal, apenas 10% têm a mesma opinião, para 89% que consideram que é má ou muito má. Do mesmo modo, a simpatia pelo euro, que vinha a cair desde 2007 até 2013 (63 para 51%), começou a subir ligeiramente no ano passado: 57% dos europeus pensam que continua a ser uma vantagem, para 36% com uma opinião negativa. É esta aparente contradição que explica o facto de os gregos votarem em Alexis Tsipras contra a austeridade sem lhe dar a oportunidade de sair do euro. É também interessante verificar o que os europeus mais valorizam na Europa: a livre circulação das pessoas e as facilidades de Schengen (57%), a paz na Europa (55%) e o euro, em terceiro lugar, com 23%. Quanto às ameaças, a imigração é a primeira preocupação de 20 países europeus, seguida de uma acentuada subida do terrorismo (sem contar ainda com Paris). A situação económica e o desemprego vêm a seguir, relegando para o fim as alterações climáticas. Portugal é uma das raras excepções, mantendo o desemprego e a situação económica na frente. Estas percepções mantêm-se no Eurobarómetro de Novembro de 2015, mas a confiança na Europa a regressar ao seu curso descendente.

5.
Falta o outro lado da moeda, que dispensa os estudos de opinião porque se revela abertamente em todas as eleições: o declínio da confiança dos europeus na própria democracia. Primeiro, foram algumas das democracias do Norte que viram nascer e crescer partidos anti-sistema e anti-Europa de forte natureza xenófoba, ao ponto de condicionarem as políticas dos respectivos governos. Depois, foram as eleições nos países que sofreram, de uma maneira ou de outra, processos de resgate. O padrão é semelhante, quando olhamos para Portugal, Espanha e Irlanda. Nesta última, que foi às urnas na semana passada, a queda de popularidade do Governo, retirando-lhe a maioria que mantinha com os trabalhistas, não se traduziu em ganhos para o outro partido do regime. Houve uma dispersão, que já vimos em Espanha e em Portugal, e que é o reflexo da falta de confiança dos eleitores nos partidos tradicionais, estejam eles no Governo ou na oposição. É uma mudança que não resulta apenas da situação económica. Basta pensar que a economia irlandesa cresceu 7% em 2015 (mais do que a China), para verificar que isso já não chega para recompensar o Governo. “Os votos dispersam-se pelos partidos radicais, como os Verdes, o Sinn Fein ou a Aliança contra a Austeridade”, diz à AFP David Farrell, do University College de Dublin. “Há uma cólera contra o sistema político e uma grande vontade de punir os partidos tradicionais pelas suas políticas económicas”, diz o académico de Dublin. Os governos europeus e as suas instituições poderiam ler nestes resultados um alerta. Não é assim. A leitura dos resultados apenas parece levar em conta o ponto de vista dos mercados, ignorando as escolhas dos eleitores: enquanto Dublin procura uma solução de governo, a frase que mais se ouve é que a “instabilidade irlandesa está a afectar a confiança dos mercados”. O mesmo se diz para Espanha, quanto ao crescimento económico, ou para Portugal, com a “instabilidade” da coligação improvável mas maioritária que nos governa.

Há uma cólera contra o sistema político e uma grande vontade de punir os partidos tradicionais pelas suas políticas económicas
DAVID FARRELL, DO UNIVERSITY COLLEGE DE DUBLIN

A percepção da opinião pública é que a confiança dos mercados passou a ser mais importante do que a confiança dos cidadãos. As suas escolhas não se traduzem em alternativas, a política dos grandes partidos europeus, à esquerda ou à direita, não muda de acordo com as suas escolhas. Em Portugal, a luta por uma alternativa à ortodoxia alemã (que a Comissão ministra diligentemente) é ameaçada quotidianamente pela “confiança dos mercados”, pelas agências de rating e pelos recados nada subtis das instituições europeias. “Creio que caminhamos para uma instabilidade política profunda”, diz à AFP Jean-Michel de Waele, da Universidade Livre de Bruxelas.

A desconfiança, como diz também Torreblanca, não é apenas a sul. A Finlândia foi um dos países mais recalcitrantes na ajuda financeira aos seus parceiros periféricos. Hoje, a braços com uma recessão resultante da queda do comércio com a Rússia e com a chegada dos refugiados pela rota do Norte, assiste ao nascimento de um novo movimento chamado Soldados de Odin, criado para patrulhar as ruas e proteger os finlandeses dos refugiados. Escolheu um guerreiro viking como símbolo e está a contagiar os países bálticos e a Noruega. A própria confiança dos alemães na liderança da “mulher mais poderosa do mundo” parece esgotar-se, apenas porque rejeitam a sua política de “braços abertos”. A chanceler procura desesperadamente a solidariedade europeia para partilhar o fardo e aliviar a pressão, mas sem grande sucesso. As eleições em três länder no próximo mês de Abril serão um teste decisivo à sua liderança, que será medida pela subida eleitoral (ou não) da Alternativa para a Alemanha. O jogo político já não se trava apenas entre os partidos do sistema, até na estável e consensual Alemanha.


O European Social Survey, que liga vários think tanks europeus, alertava em 2013 que a crise “não só desgastou as condições económicas objectivas de muita gente como criou uma onda de ansiedade sobre o futuro dos respectivos países, mesmo daqueles que não sofreram directamente a austeridade”, abalando a confiança nas elites políticas. Como escrevia a The Economist a propósito da Irlanda, “a fragmentação da política é o novo estilo europeu”. Já em Novembro de 2011 a revista britânica avisava que “os esforços para salvar o euro não podem manter-se indefinidamente contra a vontade dos eleitores”. Parecia óbvio, mas aconteceu o contrário. Donald Tusk, o presidente do Conselho Europeu, colocava assim o dilema essencial: “Como construímos um novo modelo de soberania de forma a que as soberanias nacionais necessariamente limitadas não se sintam dominadas pelos grandes países como a Alemanha?” Ainda não há resposta. Sem a confiança dos cidadãos, tudo se torna muito mais difícil, incluindo, a prazo, a confiança dos mercados.      

Robert Fico wins Slovakian election, but loses majority: exit polls


The outcome of Saturday’s vote was being watched closely in Brussels, with Slovakia due to take over the rotating presidency of the EU in July.

Robert Fico wins Slovakian election, but loses majority: exit polls

Prime minister’s party at 27.3 percent, while ultra far-right People’s Party Our Slovakia likely to enter parliament for first time.

By VINCE CHADWICK AND BENJAMIN CUNNINGHAM 3/5/16, 10:44 PM CET Updated 3/5/16, 11:13 PM CET

Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico won parliamentary elections Saturday, though he will likely be forced to govern in a coalition after a stronger than expected showing by minor parties, including those on the far right, according to exit polls.

Figures from the Markiza television network, released after polls closed at 10 p.m., gave Fico’s center-left Direction-Social Democracy (Smer-SD) party 27.3 percent of the vote, ahead of the center-right Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) at 13.3 percent, Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OL’aNO) at 11.2, and the far-right Slovak National Party (SNS) with 8 percent. The ultra far-right People’s Party Our Slovakia (LSNS) was at 6.8 percent, and is also likely to feature in parliament for the first time.


The Network (Siet’) party did worse than expected on 6.7 percent, but so did Smer, which had polled as high as 34 percent in an opinion poll on February 18.

Arriving at party headquarters, Fico told reporters the result was “a big mishmash and a huge number of political parties in parliament,” AFP reported.

The result is also well below the 44 percent Fico’s party won in 2012, which allowed it to govern in the 150-seat National Council without a coalition partner. That is now almost certain to change, with official results to be posted throughout the evening by the national statistics office.

Should he form a government it would be Fico’s third term as prime minister, after leading the nation of 5.4 million from 2006 to 2010 and again since 2012.

The 51-year-old is known for populist policies, including free train travel for students and pensioners, and six weeks ago his government sent checks for up to €165 to every household as a gas rebate.

But the campaign tightened in recent weeks with a focus on labor disputes with nurses and teachers, concerns about the health care system, and corruption allegations leveled at two senior government ministers.

Training exercise: Slovak army and police forces 'detain' a man playing the role of an illegal migrant during a joint practice exercise at the border near Bratislava

The main threat to Smer is now a center-right coalition, with Slovakia’s many minor parties performing strongly compared with the 2012 election when none scored above 10 percent.

Fico’s campaign focused on migration, despite the country receiving nowhere near the amount of asylum-seekers that have moved through Slovakia’s southern neighbor, and partner in the Visegrád group, Hungary.

“The natural integration of people who have another way of life, way of thinking, cultural background and most of all religion, is not possible,” Fico said in January.

Slovakia refused to take any refugees under the EU’s relocation scheme, and has challenged the qualified-majority voting procedure used to decide it at the European Court of Justice.

Eighty-nine percent of Slovaks oppose the relocation scheme, according to one poll, and the tough line on refugees was mostly backed by opposition parties in the campaign.

The outcome of Saturday’s vote was being watched closely in Brussels, with Slovakia due to take over the rotating presidency of the EU in July.

The final result is expected to be confirmed Sunday.

Authors:


Vince Chadwick and Benjamin Cunningham  

Moradores do Bairro Alto queixam-se da persistência do ruído ilegal dos bares


Moradores do Bairro Alto queixam-se da persistência do ruído ilegal dos bares
POR O CORVO • 3 MARÇO, 2016 •

Pelo direito ao sossego, contra o ruído fora de horas. A Associação de Moradores do Bairro Alto (AMBA) acusa a Câmara Municipal de Lisboa (CML) de ter uma atitude permissiva para com um conjunto de estabelecimentos nocturnos que não cumprem os horários de funcionamento. “Reafirmamos que queremos ter uma freguesia de todos, que continue a ser uma referência nacional e internacional, que contribua para a economia da cidade, mas queremos também que tal não invalide o direito ao descanso dos moradores”, afirma a associação num comunicado difundido ao fim da tarde desta quarta-feira (2 de Março).

No documento, os representantes dos moradores do Bairro Alto insurgem-se contra o facto de existirem bares que, passadas duas semanas sobre as restrições impostas ao seu funcionamento pela câmara, já as terão visto anuladas. As 15 de Janeiro, a CML emitiu um despacho para aplicação de medidas restritivas provisórias a um conjunto de 25 estabelecimentos, resultado de “uma prática continuada de irregularidades, incumprimento da legislação em vigor, queixas, vistorias e autos da Polícia Municipal”. Mas tal acção terá já visto diminuídos muito dos seus efeitos.

“Estranhamos que passados pouco mais de 15 dias, nove dos referidos estabelecimentos tenham conseguido a anulação da respectiva restrição sem que ninguém tenha sido informado ou consultado”, critica a AMBA, acrescentando estranheza também para com “a ausência de resposta às inúmeras tentativas de contato com a CML e pedidos de audiência solicitados ao senhor Vice Presidente”. Razão pela qual decidiu boicotar a participação na reunião descentralizada do executivo municipal, destinada a ouvir os moradores de algumas das freguesias centrais da cidade e realizada ao princípio da noite de ontem.

A associação de moradores diz que “não está, nem nunca esteve, contra a vida noturna na freguesia, nomeadamente no Bairro Alto”, mas sim “contra os estabelecimentos não-responsáveis, uma minoria, felizmente, que continua a não cumprir as leis e regulamentos nacionais, nomeadamente o direito inalienável ao descanso e sono dos cidadãos”. “O que defendemos é uma coexistência pacífica e o respeito mútuo entre moradores, comerciantes, visitantes e todos quantos aqui trabalham, o que, por vezes, parece não ser um sentimento partilhado pela CML”, dizem os moradores.

Por causa da persistência das perturbações e da alegada forma como a CML estará a tratar do assunto, a direcção da AMBA decidiu não participar na citada reunião descentralizada. “Face a esta posição da CML, não queremos nem podemos participar neste ‘exercício’ de pseudo democracia das reuniões descentralizadas promovida pela CML, quando a realidade é que os moradores são ignorados quando estão em causa os seus direitos mais básicos”, diz o comunicado da associação, que acusa: “A CML não dialoga com os Munícipes, sobretudo em situações em que “aparentemente” outros interesses mais altos se levantam”.

Na referida reunião descentralizada, o tema do ruído associado à diversão nocturna causou polémica, a par das questões relacionadas com a especulação imobiliária causada pelo aumento da actividade turística. Tanto que, confrontado por um cidadão com as sistemáticas violações da lei do ruído por parte dos bares, o presidente da CML se viu obrigado a dizer que “toda a gente tem o direito a exigir que seja aplicada a lei”. Fernando Medina afirmou que, perante as situações de incumprimento, “os serviços da câmara têm que actuar”. “Serei o primeiro a dar razão a qualquer munícipe que se venha queixar sobre estas questões”, disse.

Já o vereador Duarte Cordeiro admitiu que algumas das medidas que foram tomadas pela câmara para resolver este problema “não tiveram os efeitos que pretendidos”. O autarca, que tem os pelouro da Economia e Higiene Urbana, diz estar à espera que o novo regulamento horário dos estabelecimentos comerciais – que deverá entrar em vigor em breve – venha a tornar mais fácil controlar as infracções. Uma das coisas que deverá mudar será a publicitação da escala de sanções aplicadas aos empresários da noite. “Não corresponde à verdade dizer que não fazemos nada”, diz Duarte Cordeiro, admitindo que “este é um problema de difícil resolução”.

Sobre o caso concreto dos 25 bares penalizados em Janeiro, dos quais nove já se terão sido aliviados das restrições, o vereador alertou os moradores presentes na reunião – já por volta das 23 horas – que “do que se tratou foi de aplicar sanções acessórias e não definitivas, que também podem ser aplicadas”. “Mas, neste caso, estamos a falar da aplicação de sanções acessórias de 15 e de 30 dias”, afirmou Duarte Cordeiro, que prometeu ainda uma série de medidas para melhorar a qualidade de vida nas zonas de diversão nocturna – entre as quais está o reforço do número de papeleiras e caixotes do lixo.


Texto: Samuel Alemão

sexta-feira, 4 de março de 2016

China cuts 2016 growth target amid continued economy concerns


China cuts 2016 growth target amid continued economy concerns

Premier Li Keqiang tells opening of parliament that the nation’s economy is likely to grow at a slower rate than previously estimated

Staff and agencies
Saturday 5 March 2016 01.46 GMT

China has cut its growth target for this year to a range of 6.5% to 7%, down from 7%, a further sign that the world’s second-largest economy is slowing.

Premier Li Keqiang said in a speech at the opening of the National People’s Congress parliament, attended by 3,000 delegates, that among the “main development targets” for the nation was “GDP growth 6.5% to 7%”.

The goal had been set at “about 7%” for 2015, but expansion came in at 6.9%, its lowest for a quarter of a century.

China’s leaders have traditionally declared the GDP goal at an easily achieved level that was regularly exceeded, and even then the objective is usually approximated to provide room for positive spin just in case.

Using a range, rather than a single figure, will widen the target even further.

The downwards revision comes after factory output contracted in China during February.

China’s economy has slowed steadily as the ruling Communist party tries to replace a model based on trade and investment with self-sustaining growth driven by domestic consumption.

China was also targeting consumer inflation of “around 3%” and unemployment “within 4.5%”, the text of Li’s speech said.

It did not give a specific target for trade, which fell in 2015, only aiming for “a steady rise in import and export volumes” and “a basic balance in international payments”.

It also pledged “further reductions in the release of major pollutants”.

“In setting a projected growth rate of between 6.5% and 7% we have taken into consideration the need to finish building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and the need to advance structural reform,” said the speech text, distributed to journalists at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

“It will also help guide market expectations and keep them stable.”

Li’s speech pledged that authorities would make much-needed cuts to overcapacity in the steel, coal, and “other industries facing difficulties”.

The country’s leaders have sought to reassure jittery global markets in recent weeks with a unified message that authorities still have monetary and fiscal policy tools in their arsenal to keep the economy from further slowdown.

The text of the speech projected a government deficit for 2016 of 2.18 trillion yuan, reaching a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3%, which would be the highest since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949.

A budget report given to parliament after Li’s speech showed China will raise its defence spending by 7.6%, a smaller increase than past years as it seeks a more efficient military.

It was the “lowest defence budget increase in six years”, the official news agency Xinhua said, adding it came “in the wake of rising economic headwinds and last year’s massive drawdown of service people”.


Agence-France Presse and the Associated Press contributed to this report

New Fences on the Old Continent: Refugee Crisis Pushes Europe to the Brink / DER SPIEGEL



New Fences on the Old Continent: Refugee Crisis Pushes Europe to the Brink

Even as Chancellor Merkel continues pursuing a deal with Turkey, Austria and its Balkan neighbors to the south have taken things into their own hands. With fences going up across the region, Greece is in trouble and the EU can't figure out what to do. By SPIEGEL Staff

March 04, 2016 – 08:38 PM

A rickety gate of galvanized wire is all that separates desperation from hope. The gate is part of the fence erected in the farming village of Idomeni on the border between Greece and Macedonia. At this moment, some 12,000 people are waiting for it to be opened.


It's the gateway to Europe and the gateway to Germany.
A woman in boots and a blue uniform stands guard in front of the gate. Her name is Foteini Gagaridou and she is an official with the Greek border police -- and she looks exhausted. All it would take for her to open the border would be to pull a thin metal pin out of the latch, but she's not allowed to.

If it were up to her, she says, she would let every single one of these people pass through, just as they were able to do just a few weeks earlier -- across the border to Macedonia and on through Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia to Austria, where they could continue their journey to Germany on what is known as the Balkan Route. It's the same path chosen by hundreds of thousands of refugees last year, but the Balkan Route is now closed. It ends at Gagaridou's wire gate.

Scenes of Desperation

This is where Fortress Europe begins, secured with razor wire and defended with tear gas. Desperate scenes played out here on Monday, reminiscent of those witnessed in Hungary back in September. A group of young men used a steel beam as a battering ram to break down the gate. Rocks flew through the air as the gate flew off its hinges, prompting the volleying of tear gas cartridges and stun grenades from the Macedonian side. Men could be seen running and children screaming. One woman lay on the ground with her daughter, crying.

This frontier has become Europe's new southern border, with Greece serving as Europe's waiting room -- and the possible setting for a humanitarian disaster. Around 32,000 migrants are currently stranded in the country, a number that the Greek Interior Ministry says could quickly swell to 70,000. The aid organization Doctors without Borders is even expecting 200,000 refugees. Greece's reception camps are already full, and the highly indebted country is stretched well beyond its capacity.

The decision as to whether and how many refugees will be able to cross the border isn't one for border guard Gagaridou to make. Rather, it will be taken by the Macedonian government. Macedonia, for its part, is pointing fingers at countries further to the north, noting it is they who have tightened their borders, especially Austria, which created a chain reaction of border closures last week. The countries apparently felt they could wait no longer for the broader European solution German Chancellor Angela Merkel has promised will result from a special EU summit scheduled for March 7.

Merkel wants to see Turkey stem the flow of refugees and put a stop to the exodus to Europe. European leaders agreed on Feb. 18 that this plan remains the "priority." But Austria and the Balkan states nevertheless moved ahead and closed their borders.

The New Europe of Fences

Idomeni has become a symbol of the current political chaos in Europe and the crumbling of a joint European refugee policy. The town is emblematic of the new Europe of fences. It is here that German Chancellor Angela Merkel's open border policies have met their end. Under Austria's leadership, the Balkan Route has been closed in the precise move Berlin had hoped to avoid.

Merkel has begun warning of the EU's disintegration "into small states" that will be unable to compete in a globalized world, as well as of the possibility that border controls might soon be reintroduced all across Europe.

Were Europe in agreement, it would be unproblematic to accommodate 2-3 million refugees, given the Continent's population of a half billion people. From such a perspective, the current spat actually seems somewhat ridiculous. But in the run up to next week's EU summit, Europe is gripped by strife. Europe's greatest achievement, the opening of its borders through the Schengen agreement, is at stake, and the increasingly toxic atmosphere between countries has reached alarming dimensions.

First, Austria decided not to invite Greece to the West Balkan Summit the week before last, at which an agreement between 10 countries was reached to close the borders. Athens was rejected because it is viewed as having followed a policy of simply waving refugees through. In response, Greece withdrew its ambassador from Vienna and cancelled planned meetings in Athens with the Austrian interior minister. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico in turn warned Greece that if the country didn't move to secure its borders that, "there will be one single hotspot and it will be called Greece." Perhaps, he added, it may be necessary to sacrifice Greece for the sake of Europe's well-being.

The refugees are encountering a Europe that was already fatigued and disunited even before their arrival, weakened as it had been by years of the euro crisis, frequent disagreements between Germany and France (once the motors of European unification), anxiety over the special wishes demanded by Britain and the threat of Russia's aggressive stance in the east. In a Europe where immigration policies are among the most controversial issues and right-wing populism is on the rise seemingly everywhere, nationalist tendencies have emerged as a frequent specter since the very beginning of the refugee crisis.

The Limits of German Power

Europe's weakness, though, is also the product of a Germany that is having trouble fitting into its leadership role on the Continent. For decades, German politicians have sought to eschew expressing Germany's own interests, instead emphasizing what is best for Europe and trying to be the best Atlanticists possible, exercising restraint when it came to their role in the EU.

This changed during the euro crisis. Merkel took advantage of the country's economic strength in order to pursue German interests. Paramount among these interests, she believed, was a stable euro, and to achieve that she imposed levels of austerity on Southern Europe that left her at times looking like a stern and scolding school teacher. Germany assumed a dominant role in Europe.

That may also have influenced Merkel at the outbreak of the refugee crisis to announce policies that had been conceived in Germany -- with her now famous line "We can do it" -- but that would also inevitably have consequences for the rest of Europe. She did this without consulting with others. In that sense, this sentence, as nice as it may have sounded, was also a pretension to power. It hid a European "we" inside the German one. No previous chancellor had done such a thing before, but the limits of German power were quickly exposed. Rather than slipping into Merkel's "we," most of Germany's partners instead formulated their own positions and blocked the admission of any appreciable number of refugees or pursued their own strategies for keeping them at bay.

Indeed, the notion of a united Europe is currently under extreme duress, and no summit or compromise on refugees is going to be able to fix that overnight. The Europe of today is a collection of states that have become dangerously foreign to each other.

For Chancellor Merkel, Monday's special EU summit is decisive because she wants to show in the run-up to important regional elections in Germany on March 13 that her refugee policies are actually starting to have an impact. To the majority of voters in her party, the conservative Christian Democratic Union, this means lowering the number of refugees arriving in Germany.

Merkel is still focusing primarily on a deal with Turkey. Prior to the summit, Germany and Brussels launched a significant diplomatic offensive to make the meeting a success. European Council President Donald Tusk visited Turkey on Thursday, preceded by the deputy chief of the European Commission, who traveled regularly to Ankara for talks. The message from Europe to Turkey is that the action plan agreed to in the fall needs to be implemented.

In order to be able to push Ankara to take back as many of refugees as possible, Greece is seeking to declare Turkey as a safe country of origin. Last week, Ankara signaled to EU officials for the first time that it could imagine the possibility of at least taking back economic migrants.

'A Turning Point in Refugee Policy'

In order to avoid appearing totally isolated in Europe, Merkel has recently set about slowly, but very clearly, transforming the main emphasis of her refugee policies. Although Merkel, like many others, initially pushed for the distribution of the refugees across the EU, the German chancellor is now emphasizing border protection as the highest priority.

No one in the Chancellery is speaking anymore of the kinds of humanitarian gestures seen in September, when Merkel opened Germany's borders to the thousands of refugees stranded in Budapest. The German public mood has changed and the populace would not be pleased were Berlin to allow the refugees currently trapped at the Macedonian border to come to Germany. Chancellery officials may view the crisis in Idomeni as proof that border closures lead to chaos, but the closures have been advantageous to Merkel nonetheless, even if Berlin officials aren't saying as much. The number of refugees coming to Germany, after all, has dropped significantly.

Others in Germany, though, are admitting the advantages. "There has been turning point in refugee policy through the closure of most of the Balkan Route," Bavarian Governor Horst Seehofer told SPIEGEL. "Germany is a beneficiary." It is a statement that puts Seehofer in agreement with the government in Vienna, which has accused Germany of making a public fuss about the border closures while profiting from the development at the same time.

Ugly Images, Welcome by Some

As ugly as the images coming from Greece are -- and they even have the potential to get worse in the coming days -- they are unlikely to cause too many European governments to lose any sleep. They send a message of deterrence to those who might be considering making the trip. On Thursday, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, whose country currently holds the six-month rotating presidency of the EU, said he wants to see no new refugees arriving in Greece in the future. "We need to bring it back to a level from which we can see zero," he said. "It has to be really considerably lower than it is today."

During a visit with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on Thursday, European Council President Donald Tusk appealed to "economic migrants" not to come to Europe. "Do not believe the smugglers," Tusk said. "Do not risk your lives and your money. It is all for nothing. Greece or any other European country will no longer be a transit country."

Many of the migrants now being held up in Greece -- the majority of whom want to continue on to Germany -- are assembling in and around Athens. Ferries transport them from the Greek islands to the harbor at Piraeus in the Athens urban area. They disembark the ferries by the hundreds, with weary faces and carrying plastic bags and backpacks. They often have children in tow and can sometimes be seen pushing the elderly in wheelchairs out of the ship's belly. Sometimes a ship arrives carrying as many as a thousand refugees.

Piraeus these days feels more like a catchment basin than a harbor. It's not known precisely how many refugees are currently staying in the port area, but estimates put the figure anywhere from 1,500 to 5,000. They've used towels and cardboard boxes to build shacks, with tents erected in the rare places that have any lawn. Laundry dangles from seemingly every small palm or spruce tree as it dries. Families are camped out in the waiting halls.

Camping Out in Athens

Meanwhile, hundreds of Afghans are spending their nights on Victoria Square in Athens, where they string up plastic tarpaulins from bare tree branches to protect themselves from the rain. When asked how she feels about the scenario unfolding in front of the windowpanes, a café owner breaks down in tears.

Thousands are now residing outside the city center, for example at the old Elliniko airport along Athens' southern coast across from Aegina island. Journalists are currently banned from entering these "official" camps, allegedly because those helping the refugees have been overwhelmed by the media attention. It is largely Afghan nationals who are being housed here, people who have little to no chance of being able to continue their journey. There are no shower facilities and only nine Porta-Potties can be found in front of the entrance. The stench in the terminal building is oppressive, with heaps of trash piling up between tents and blankets.

A small and wiry Greek woman named Hala runs back and forth between the tents. She holds her mobile phone in front of her mouth like a Walkie-Talkie. She's the sole person responsible for ensuring that the hundreds of people staying here are provided with water and at least something to eat. Hala says the situation here is "surreal."

Scenes like this are one of the reasons that Greece will top the agenda at Monday's summit. Merkel wants to prevent the country from drifting into chaos. "We did not keep Greece in the euro to abandon the country now," she says.

On Wednesday, the European Commission announced that €700 million in emergency aid would be earmarked for Greece and other countries heavily affected by the refugee crisis through 2018. Just recently, the EU dispatched experts to the affected areas in order to work together with the UN Refugee Agency to build up the infrastructure necessary for providing care to the refugees. It's the first time that a humanitarian relief mission has ever been conducted inside the borders of the European Union.

Fending for Themselves

The Greek government itself ignored the refugee crisis for as long as it could. It pursued a strategy of merely waving the refugees through as they arrived in the country. Athens knew that it would soon be stuck with the entire burden if it didn't. And that, it appears, is exactly what is happening now.

The thousands of refugees in the tent city at Idomeni have been left to fend for themselves because, officially, the camp still doesn't even exist. The Greek government is also hopelessly overstrained in other places. For a long time, the country wasn't even registering refugees after making the crossing from Turkey to one of the Aegean Islands. After his election in January 2015, Tspiras at least established a Migration Ministry, albeit with a miniscule staff of 20.

In October, his government promised to set up shelter capacity for another 50,000 people within three months. In addition, so-called "hotspots" were to be set up on five Aegean islands to receive and count refugees and then transfer them to the mainland.

But very little happened. By January, only a single reception facility had been opened, on Lesbos. This is why the Greek prime minister has involved the last institution in his country that is still able to act reliably and quickly: the military. Greek soldiers are now to erect tent camps and repurpose barracks as provisional living spaces in Athens, Thessaloniki and elsewhere. The decision came so unexpectedly that some mayors only learned from the newspapers that their municipalities would soon be home to thousands of migrants.

Giannis Mouzalas openly admits that his country is not able to handle what is currently taking place. Greece, he notes, is still suffering badly from the effects of the euro crisis. Mouzalas, the minister responsible for immigration, is sitting with tired eyes in his office at the Interior Ministry. He repeatedly points out that it is a humanitarian crisis. "Actually, everything," he answers when asked what kind of help his country needs the most. He goes down the list: containers, personnel, tents, food, medical assistance. And money, of course.

'What Are We Supposed to Do?'

"The situation in Piraeus is horrifying," Mouzalas says. The faster images of the misery are disseminated around the world, the better, he says, so that aid might finally arrive. And it needs to come quickly -- before Greece sinks into chaos.

Mouzalas, who isn't a member of the ruling Syriza party himself, nevertheless defends his government's policies. He says there was never a time when Greek officials simply "waved refugees through," as they have been accused of doing. "What are we supposed to do if they don't want to be here?" he asks.

When asked how the Greek and European refugee problem should be solved, he is vague, saying only: "We'll see." He lights a cigarette and says he hopes that the plan being hammered out with Turkey will be successful. "That's actually our last chance," he says.

Ironically, Mouzalas says, relations between Germany and Greece are better now -- in the middle of the refugee crisis -- than they have been in years. Germany has provided extensive help to Greece from the very beginning, he says, particularly by taking in so many people.

The place where the dramatic developments in recent weeks got their start is the Spielfeld border crossing on the Slovenian-Austrian border. Only 80 asylum applications per day are now being accepted here, with 3,200 people being allowed through if they intend to travel onward to Germany. By imposing such limits, Austria set off a domino effect throughout the Balkans, essentially closing off the route all the way down to Macedonia.

Officer Michael Puchegger only allows those refugees to pass who don't make any mistakes. Their passport can't be forged, they cannot have an entry in the international criminal registry and they have to give the right answers to the questions they are asked at the border.

It is here -- where not that long ago some 8,000 refugees were passing through each day -- where the clash of cultures can be better observed than anywhere else. Refugees who are afraid of Fortress Europe encounter a Europe that is afraid of refugees.

Questions at the Border

On a recent Tuesday, Nayah, from Aleppo, covered in black from the top of her head to the soles of her feet like her mother, drags herself and her three children the final few meters to the Austrian flag. Aside from her, there are no other refugees around. The corridor she walks through is secured on both sides by razor wire and there is a massive metal door at the end. In between are metal turnstiles and a maze of fencing.

The first questions are simple: Family name, first name, former place of residence. Then comes the decisive moment: Where do you want to go? "Almania," says Nayah. The interpreter translates: "Germany."

"Why Germany?" the police ask. Silence and mumbling comes in response.

The correct answer only comes following a bit of friendly assistance from the interpreter: "Because we want to ask for asylum in Germany." "Five for Germany," the policeman calls out, and waves the Syrians through.

Wrong answers at this point in the journey would be: "I want to go to Germany to work as a teacher," or "because my brother lives there." Those who slip up, even just once, are sent back to Slovenia, and from there, if they don't apply for asylum, onwards to Croatia, Serbia, Macedonia and Greece.

It is rare that Austria takes on the kind of leading role on the diplomatic stage that it has in recent days. "Normally, we prefer to hide and to say: Austria is such a small country, we would like to pay the children's rate for our security, please," jokes one high-ranking official in the Austrian Foreign Ministry. But these days, the situation is reversed, with Vienna -- in this existential EU crisis -- setting the tone regardless of what Berlin or Brussels thinks. It's almost as though Austria once again wants to flex its muscles in the Balkans, its Habsburg-era sphere of influence.

The push by normally docile Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann has triggered annoyance in Berlin and unequivocal rage in Athens. On Tuesday, Greek Prime Minister Tsipras even went so far as to accuse Faymann of panic and "spasmodic moves" due to upcoming presidential elections in the country.

Faymann, a member of the center-left Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ), is indeed under pressure. On the one hand, 29-year-old Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz, a member of Faymann's conservative coalition partner, the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP), is wildly popular. On the other, though, the right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), led by Heinz-Christian Strache, is leading in nationwide public opinion polls.

Fear in the East

It has only been since Faymann freed himself from unquestioned loyalty to Angela Merkel that his party's poll numbers have risen slightly. "Austria is not a waiting room for Germany," Faymann said during European Council President Donald Tusk's visit to Vienna on Tuesday. Germany, the Austrian chancellor continued, should pick up its refugees from Greece and countries neighboring Syria in the future. "In the refugee crisis, we need common European solutions," Faymann told SPIEGEL. "As such, I am proposing a fund to which every EU member contributes, just like with the bank bailouts. The money should be used to cover the costs of the asylum applicants."

On a per capita basis, Austria received more asylum applicants last year than Germany did. That means that criticism from Austria carries much greater weight than that from countries to its east, where opposition is even stronger. In most formerly communist EU member states, the electorates are largely xenophobic and the belief is widespread that refugees would bring epidemics, terrorism and Sharia law into their countries. The influx, many in Eastern Europe believe, is but the advance guard of an expansive Islam seeking to take over the Christian West.

Far-right parties across the region have profited from such fears, while Czech President Milos Zeman has taken the lead in his country. "The Islamic refugees are bringing Sharia into our country. That means unfaithful women will be stoned, thieves will have their hands chopped off and our beautiful girls will be forced to wear the burqa," he has said.

From the Eastern European perspective, the refugee crisis is a German problem. "It's a simple concept. I invite guests over and when I decide there are too many, I knock on my neighbor's door and say: Take care of my guests," Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico said in mid-February.

The construction of Fortress Europe, which was never supposed to be built, is quite far along in Eastern Europe and in the Balkans. There are fences between Turkey and Bulgaria, between Hungary and Serbia and between Greece and Macedonia. Slovenia has once again begun using Yugoslavia-era customs barracks on the Austrian border. There are still alternative routes leading through Croatia and Albania, but soon, the Balkans will only be traversable to those with even more money.

In the Serbian town of Sid, authorities have established a kind of preliminary deportation station. Here, roughly halfway between Greece and Austria, those refugees who have been picked up along the trail are divided into groups, with only Syrians and Iraqis allowed to continue their journeys north. Afghans are now forced to turn around as are those from the Maghreb, many of whom try to claim they are from Syria. Croatian police check out the migrants right on Serbian territory.

All Eyes on Turkey

Construction of the fortress is continuing regardless of what the EU decides at its summit on Monday. Indeed, the expectations are low for the gathering. It's not even clear if the summit will result in a summit statement, as is normally the case. Whereas Germany would like to see a binding document, Poland and Hungary don't, arguing that the focus of the meeting will only be on the implementation of previously agreed measures.

Angela Merkel's top priority is a deal with Turkey in an effort to protect the EU's external borders. The Greek border is of particular concern and both NATO and the European border control agency Frontex have been tapped to reimpose order there.

Officials in the Chancellery believe that the first step must be that of bringing illegal immigration into the EU almost completely to a stop. All other issues will get short shrift at the summit. The idea of establishing mandatory refugee quotas for EU member states is dead. Instead, Ankara is to be offered that a "Coalition of the Willing" will accept refugees directly from Turkey, but only after the border is secured -- if the country agrees to take back economic migrants.

As such, Turkey is to be the guest of honor at the summit. First, EU heads of state and government will meet together for lunch with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu before EU members meet amongst themselves without their guest from Ankara.

EU politicians are already talking about significantly increasing their offer of €3 billion in financial aid for Turkey. European Commissioner Günther Oettinger told SPIEGEL: "Europe should offer Turkey further financial support beyond 2017. When it comes to the regular payment of benefits that Turkey offers refugees in the form of shelter and food, annual sums quickly add up to six or 7 billion."

Thus far, Turkey hasn't done much to stop migrant smugglers or to prevent refugees from traveling onward to Greece. To be sure, the EU implementation report that will be presented at Monday's summit is careful to praise every truck and boat full of refugees stopped by Turkish authorities. But there has not been a sufficient reduction in the number of refugees crossing the Aegean into Greece. In February, 56,335 refugees crossed the narrow strip of sea from Turkey's west coast to the Greek islands -- for a daily average of 1,943.

Traffic at the Border

For Europe, it is also alarming that the share of Syrians among those now arriving to Greece is plunging. "The numbers reflect a dropping percentage of Syrians (from 69 to 38 percent) and a growing percentage of Afghans (from 18 to 24 percent) and Iraqis (from 8 to 25 percent)," according to the report.

How does the EU intend to confront such migration pressures in the future? How can the Schengen agreement, which guarantees border-free travel within the EU, and the Dublin Regulation, which regulates asylum applications, be saved? The dangers to Europe as currently constituted are not just visible at the razor-wire fences in Southern Europe, but also in Kiefersfelden, the Bavarian mountain town on the border with Austria.

On "travel days," when vacationers and day-trippers make their return journey toward Munich from the mountains around Kitzbühl, traffic now backs up in the town. Locals hardly go out on the streets anymore and customers from Austria, who used to regularly frequent the town's shops, no longer come at all. The reason for the changes is the fact that the nearby A93 highway has for months been reduced to a single lane due to border controls. The result is a traffic jam stretching almost 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) into Austria. And a huge amount of traffic in Kiefersfelden as people try to avoid the backup.

"If there was a fire at peak traffic times, not even the fire department would be able to make it through," says Mayor Hajo Gruber. He says the Bavarian interior minister has promised that traffic on the A93 will no longer be reduced to a single lane for border checks in the future. "I'm hoping for some relief," Gruber says. "The federal police badly needs more personnel and different structures if it wants to avoid these traffic jams."

The Bavarian threat to use its own state police to implement strict border controls in the future is also taking shape. The Bavarian Interior Ministry and state police force have already asked Gruber where they might be able to set up mobile office units for border control officers.

The Costs of Losing Schengen

The recent hindrances to cross-border traffic are minor in comparison to the drama taking place in Southern Europe. But it shows that a Europe of open borders is endangered everywhere, even in places where cohesive trans-border regions have developed.

According to a European Commission report, the reintroduction of internal border controls within the Schengen area would reduce EU economic output over a 10-year period by between €500 billion and €1.4 trillion. Just the direct costs for border controls will cost between €5 billion and €18 billion annually.

Europe is risking its future by closing its borders. Not only will its economic power suffer, but also its global political influence. In the concert of large geopolitical powers, individual European countries do not have a loud voice, not even Germany. The United States and China are only interested in the EU as a whole. Size is decisive. If Europe is unable to present itself as a unity, it will be marginalized.

Nothing would make European dissent more clear than the reintroduction of controlled borders on the Continent. Furthermore, the European project lives, both at home and abroad, from the successful unification of erstwhile enemies. And the current disagreement over refugee policy has threatened to destroy that unity. It is akin to gambling with the Continent's future. Europe in recent decades has become known as a liberal continent, whereas Fortress Europe would scare away the very people the countries of Europe would most like to attract: students, experts, engineers and scientists.

Mid-May to mid-July marks a decisive phase for the Schengen area. That's when the temporary border controls currently in place -- allowed by the Schengen agreement in "exceptional circumstances" -- are set to expire. If Greece is unable to tighten up its external border by then, which seems likely, then the internal border controls may be extended by two years.

Progress on the Refugee Issue

The European Commission plans to present a roadmap on Monday. It calls for the removal of all internal border controls, including those undertaken by Germany, should the EU's external borders be adequately protected by the end of the year. Berlin has thrown its support behind the plan.

In the next several weeks, the Commission intends to make progress on the refugee issue with a variety of initiatives. Among them is the reform of the Dublin Regulation. The rule requires refugees to apply for asylum in the first EU country in which they set foot, but it has been de facto suspended since the beginning of the crisis. The Commission proposal calls for asylum applicants to be distributed among EU member states for the duration of their application proceedings. That would shift the burden away from member states on the EU periphery to all European countries. In addition, it calls for the alignment of the divergent asylum standards applied by member states.

Finally, the European border control agency Frontex could be expanded into a real border protection agency. That, at least, is the proposal made by the Netherlands, in its capacity as the current EU Council presidency. Greece in particular would like more support when it comes to border protection. But a proposal calling for European border officials to be deployed on the borders of an EU member state even over objections from that member state is a controversial one. Countries like Poland and Greece see that as a significant violation of their sovereignty.

In Piraeus, the port city next to Athens, the huge blue cargo doors slowly sink to the quay as the cavernous ferry opens. The sound of chains scraping across the concrete and a shrill beeping fills the warm air as Blue Star 1 lands. The trip from Mytilini, on the island of Lesbos, via Chios to Athens normally takes 11 hours, but the Blue Star 1 arrives only after a five-and-a-half hour delay due to strong winds on the northern Aegean.

Doaa Darwish, 25, sits on a low wall in front of the Pericles ferry terminal. She is wearing leggings and rubber boots, a silver ring pierces her left eyebrow. Behind her, baby sleepers are drying on a laurel bush in the midday sun. Doaa Darwish is from Yarmuk, a suburb of Damascus -- and she has finally arrived in Europe along with her three-month-old son Alaa and her two younger sisters. They traveled through the war zone to the Turkish city of Antakya and then on to the Greek islands of Farmakonissi and Leros via the city of Izmir on Turkey's west coast. She medicated her baby for the boat trips so he would stay calm.

Stuck for 10 Days

The trip took 25 days and was so stressful that Doaa stopped lactating. Her sister Walaa heads off in search of powdered milk. The sisters hope to continue their journey as soon as possible, with their first destination being the city of Idomeni on Greece's border with Macedonia. Doaa's husband, who is in Berlin, has sent her the telephone numbers of men who can help her get to the border. One of them wants to bring her directly to Macedonia. But his asking price is high.

"We are three young Syrians with an infant," says Doaa. She thinks that will convince the Macedonian border guards to let them cross and will help them as they travel onwards to the north. The youngest, Esmaa, has only just turned 14. She had to come along because, as a minor, she is the one that makes them eligible for family reunification once they get to Berlin. Only then can they apply for their parents from Damascus to join them.
Doaa says that she is so agitated that she can't sleep anymore, adding that, from what she has seen so far, she isn't particularly fond of Greece. She says it's disgusting here and that she has tried to avoid visiting the restrooms. Instead of eating, she smokes. The sisters take turns charging their smartphones. One of them always stays on the wall in front of the laurel bush, the only place where they can get free Wi-Fi reception.

When Walaa comes back, she looks horrified. She says: "Some people have been stuck here for 10 days already!" But that won't happen to them, she says. Doaa nods.


By Giorgos Christides, Julia Amalia Heyer, Walter Mayr, Peter Müller, Ralf Neukirch, Conny Neumann, René Pfister, Jan Puhl, Mathieu von Rohr and Christoph Scheuermann

Terminal test of Merkel’s migration mettle


Terminal test of Merkel’s migration mettle

A fight over disused Tempelhof airport brings to surface political divisions in Germany.

By JANOSCH DELCKER 2/29/16, 5:32 AM CET

BERLIN — Just five kilometers from Angela Merkel’s office, at Berlin’s mothballed Nazi-era airport, the German chancellor’s refugee crisis slogan — “We can do it” — is sorely tested.

Inside the now defunct hangars of Tempelhof airport in the southern part of the capital, city authorities keep adding housing units to the sprawling facility. It was meant to be a transit camp, an emergency shelter for refugees waiting to get asylum papers and then moving on to more permanent accommodation within days, weeks at the most.


Since Tempelhof opened for refugees in late October, 3,500 refugees have come through. Like the rest of the country, the refugee-friendly capital has filled up quickly with many of the million newcomers who entered Germany last year. Now thousands could be stuck in transit at Tempelhof for months, if not years, turning the airport complex into a “city within the city,” or “refugee ghetto,” depending whom one asks on the political spectrum.

Officials with Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) acknowledge that despite their leader’s other famous proclamation in the refugee crisis — “I have a plan” — to integrate refugees into society as fast as possible, city and state authorities are scrambling to find temporary fixes. It leaves them, they say, little time to find permanent shelters. Robust as it seemed five months ago, when Merkel rallied Germans behind her cause (what some understood as an attempt to redeem the country from its World War II past by putting out a welcome mat), Germany’s infrastructure is creaking under the strain of far higher than expected number of new arrivals.

Michael Elias manages the company running the refugee center in Tempelhof, inside a makeshift office on the first floor of the former airport hangar. | Janosch Delcker
Michael Elias manages the company running the refugee center in Tempelhof, inside a makeshift office on the first floor of the former airport hangar | Janosch Delcker
“The core of the problem is that we don’t have other possibilities to accommodate them,” said Dirk Gerstle, a CDU official and deputy state minister of social affairs.

“It wouldn’t help anyone to transfer people from Tempelhof to a gym,” Gerstle said. “They need to be transferred into more permanent community housing, and we have to build that first.”

‘State failure’

Merkel’s critics, politicians and activists say it’s too late to be pouring over construction plans. Earlier this month, a coalition of 31 Berlin-based volunteer groups published an open letter to the mayor of Berlin, accusing the local authorities of “state failure,” demanding that all refugee centers below minimum standards, like Tempelhof, be closed.

“Tempelhof is nothing but a strategy born out of despair,” said Antje Kapek, head of the opposition Green Party block in Berlin’s state parliament during a session in late January.

Criticism is growing in Merkel’s ranks with one CDU MP Kai Wegner calling Tempelhof a “ghetto, which people were initially trying to avoid.”

RefugeesMap

Those are words not often heard in connection with Tempelhof, the site of one of city’s finest hours – the Berlin Airlift.

When the Soviets erected a blockade of the city in 1948, the first major showdown of the Cold War, the U.S. and U.K. responded by sending in the so-called “Candy Bombers” to maintain the flow of essential supplies to the western part of the city that was under their control. During the airlift’s peak, the western allies transported about 4,500 tons of cargo per day on some 1,500 flights.

The herculean effort saved West Berliners from having to beg for food and other essentials from the Soviet authorities, earning the US and U.K. the enduring allegiance of grateful locals.

In contemporary Berlin, the airlift is as much a symbol of West Berlin’s hardy Cold War resistance as it is of Western solidarity. An imposing sculpture memorializes the event in front of Tempelhof on Platz der Luftbrücke, or “Airlift Square.”

Those memories have added another emotional layer to the debate over the refugees, but there are no signs that Tempelhof will be closed for them any time soon. Of 3,500 asylum seekers that have landed there since late October, only 400 have been moved to more permanent housing. About 1,000 people took off on their own, their destination unknown, but new ones keep coming. If they keep arriving, officials say there could be up to 7,000 people living there by the end of the year.

“We’ve become bottled up. People don’t move on to other places,” explained Michael Elias, manager of the private company that runs the refugee shelter, explaining the standstill on a lack of permanent housing for refugees in the city.

Inside one of the capacious hangers, hundreds of people share the space. It smells like it. People live up to 10 in a large cubicle. A mashup of chatter, kids screaming, cell phones ringing, and the noise of men playing football provides the background noise. At the edges of the room, people gather around columns, to charge their phones at some of the few available power sources. Once in a while, fights over outlets break out. Employees at the center privately speak about a growing problem of alcoholism. Refugees themselves complain about poor hygienic conditions and lack of privacy.

“Most of the Iranians who arrived with me have already gone back to Iran,” said Kurosh Shahiriari, a 35-years old cook, who moved into Tempelhof four months ago.

Slow German reactions

The growing flap over Tempelhof also illustrates the limits of Germans’ willingness to lend a helping hand. The complex offers more than enough room to accommodate the refugees.

To many Berliners, however, Tempelhof is more than just an old airport: it’s an escape, a vast public space in the city center, a place that for many represents the qualities that make Berlin unique. On weekends the park fills up with families, cyclists and joggers, kite flyers and even kite surfers. People flock to Tempelhof to forget about daily worries like the refugee crisis, not to be reminded of them.

Across Germany, authorities have put up tents, remodeled gyms or moved newly arrived refugees into abandoned industrial complexes, gyms and halls.

Tempelhof stands out, and not just as the “birthplace of aviation.” After the airport closed down in 2008, Berlin split over what to do with the facility. This political fight is being revived by the debate over refugees and the airport, showing the refugee crisis has blurred the distinction between national and local politics in Germany.

Many groups that today protest the expansion of Tempelhof predate the refugee influx. In a 2014 referendum, a majority of Berliners approved a law preventing the city from opening the former airport area to investment. Now Berlin’s state government has altered the law to allow for the construction of temporary housing, saying it had to address an urgent need.

Volunteer activists like Kerstin Meyer of “100 percent Tempelhofer Feld,” who actively campaigned to stop development at the airport two years ago, have since revived their movements. They say the city of Berlin is using the refugee crisis to undo the outcome of the referendum and trying to hide the refugees in an isolated spot, out of public view.

“We want those people to be placed among the neighborhood of Berlin, inside pre-existing buildings that sit empty,” Meyer said about the emergency shelter at Tempelhof. “Where they are now, they are completely isolated.”

Merkel’s critics say the German chancellor is so preoccupied with enlisting Turkey to save her refugee strategy that she’s failing to honor her 5-month-old pledge to integrate refugees into society.

“In retrospect, all over Germany, authorities initially reacted too slowly to the refugee crisis,” said Angelika Schöttler of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the mayor of the borough where Tempelhof is located.

“When it comes to registering [refugees,] we still have a huge backlog,” Schöttler said at her office in the red-brick borough mayor’s office. Although she said that no one could have predicted the high numbers, local and state authorities should have started six months earlier to prepare, she added. “Hindsight is easier than foresight.”

For her part, Merkel deploys her chief of staff and head of the government’s migration coordinating committee, Peter Altmaier, out on the talk show circuit to give her rebuttal: An action plan is in place, just give the government more time to implement it. With a sense of pride, Merkel’s supporters say that while conditions might not be ideal, no refugee in Germany is sleeping rough or going hungry.

There are other Tempelhofs in Berlin. About 30,000 refugees, according to city data provided to POLITICO, live in temporary housing in the capital. Only about 15,000 asylum seekers live in permanent refugee accommodations run by the city. By the end of the year, Berlin is planning to create up to 34,000 new permanent units. Even if they are built in time, there’s doubt that they will be enough since new people keep coming.

The number of arrivals is steady, currently at 1,900 a day. Since the beginning of the year, 99,600 refugees have entered the country, according to the German federal police.


Matthew Karnitschnig in Berlin and Hans Von Der Burchard in Brussels contributed to this report.

The end of Heile Welt


Charlemagne
The end of Heile Welt

Germany’s illusions have been shattered
Mar 5th 2016 | From the print edition

MORE than 1m refugees arrived in Germany last year, mainly young Muslim men. They entered a society that, relative to other Western countries, has embraced multiculturalism only recently. Suddenly these foreigners are in co-ed schools, discos, swimming pools, hospitals and parks. Some of their interactions with their hosts go easily. Others do not—as epitomised by New Year’s Eve in Cologne, where gangs of North African men sexually assaulted scores of German women who had come to watch the fireworks.

Germans who only a year ago oozed confidence about their economy and their country are now losing faith that they “can manage”, as Angela Merkel, the chancellor, likes to put it. Many fear the crisis will render Germany unrecognisable. A sense of loss pervades many conversations.

To grasp this trauma it helps to understand the German zeitgeist that developed (mainly in the former West Germany) in the post-war years, and lingered in the reunited country. Germans call it Heile Welt. The term means something like “wholesome world”, and describes an orderly, idyllic state. It may connote the nurturing environment parents create for their children to protect them from life’s ugliness, or a private oasis of peace amid public chaos. It was a state of mind that Germans clung to after the second world war.

Because it implies a degree of escapism, the term can be used sardonically. In 1973 Loriot, West Germany’s most incisive humourist, chose it for the title of an anthology of cartoons skewering his country’s bourgeois pretensions. In 1998 it was the title of a novel by Walter Kempowski, set in 1961, in which a teacher moves to an idyllic village but discovers that behind every silence and glance lurks a demon of the Nazi past.

In the immediate post-war years, with Holocaust, firebombing, mass rape and the carving up of their nation still recent memories, Germans flocked to watch Heimat (“homeland”) films. Usually shot in the Alps or in heaths and forests, they featured clean, simple tales of love and friendship between pure women and men dressed in regional garb. Outside the cinemas, Germans revelled in their “economic miracle”, as they rebuilt a devastated country into a commercial powerhouse.

Foreigners were allowed into this Heile Welt, but not entirely accepted. To man its assembly lines, Germany invited workers from southern Europe and especially Turkey. The millionth arrived in 1964 and got a motorcycle as a gift. By the time the programme ended in 1973, 4m foreigners lived in West Germany. But they were called “guest workers” rather than immigrants, on the premise that they would ultimately leave again. Unsurprisingly, most stayed. Yet mainstream Germany continued to see itself as ethnically homogenous—a Heile Welt in a tribal sense.

As part of Heile Welt, West Germans atoned for their past by becoming good democrats, good Europeans and ardent pacifists. But they did so like a teenager who experiments with increasing autonomy, confident that his uncool but protective parents are always standing by. For West Germany, dad was America, which held its aegis over the country throughout the cold war. Mum was France, which despite its nervous vanity gracefully accepted Germany back into the European family.

The dystopian flip side of Heile Welt was never far away. If the cold war had ever turned hot, Germany would have been vaporised first. (“The shorter the range, the deader the Germans,” missile strategists used to quip.) West Germany even had terrorism. But its terrorists were native white leftists who killed industrial tycoons. Ordinary Germans never felt threatened.

In their private lives Germans created micro-idylls. They kept garden plots orderly, guarded by the requisite gnome. East Germans seeking refuge from the cynically implausible Heile Welt offered by communism retreated to “the niches”: private book readings among intellectuals, or nude bathing with friends by pristine lakes. East or west, order was paramount. Visitors were impressed (if not intimidated) by how fastidiously Germans separated their white, brown and green glass for recycling.

One by one, these facets of Heile Welt are becoming brittle. Russia is aggressive again; Germans fret that, when it comes to it, the ageing American dad may not show up. Having cultivated non-violence to the point of pacifism, they now realise that defence of their state and their values may someday require them to fight, kill and die again. The terrorists they now face are not German leftists, but foreigners ready to kill women and children. Globalisation no longer just means exporting BMWs, but also allowing in Muslim refugees, some of them with attitudes on gender and Jews that Germans find offensive.

Gnomic wisdom
Some Germans react by fleeing into ever tinier Heile Welten. “We are becoming ever more like our garden gnomes,” says Wolfgang Nowak, one of Germany’s most astute social observers—inward-facing rather than open-minded. Every Monday a movement called Pegida, or “Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamisation of the Occident”, marches through Dresden. For many in the surrounding area of Saxony, these gatherings have become convivial rituals similar to American tailgate barbecues, but to outsiders they appear xenophobic and menacing. Even moderate Germans are turning against globalisation. Many see a free-trade area being negotiated between America and the EU not as an opportunity but as yet another threat to their way of life.

Above all, the tone of German conversations is changing. Language in the era of Heile Welt was sanitised, with political correctness often taken to ludicrous extremes. Now, in the name of “telling it as it is”, it is becoming coarser and aggressive. It is not clear what kind of world will replace the wholesome one the Germans once dreamed up. But it will be a rougher one.


From the print edition: Europe