Under current policies, the world is on track for an average temperature increase of 2.7°C (or up to 2.8°C under UN projections) by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial levels, heavily overshooting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

 

Under current policies, the world is on track for an average temperature increase of 2.7°C (or up to 2.8°C under UN projections) by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial levels, heavily overshooting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Key Findings from the Analysis

• The 1.5°C Breach: A major report by Climate Action Tracker (CAT), released during COP31 talks in Antalya, Turkey, warns that an overshoot of the 1.5°C threshold is now unavoidable and approaching within just a few years.
• Warming Projections by 2100:
• Current policies: 2.7°C increase (up slightly from 2.6°C last year).
• If 2030/2035 targets are met: 2.6°C increase.
• Combined pledges (including long-term targets): 2.1°C increase.
• Optimistic net-zero scenario: 1.9°C increase.
• The "Irrevocable" Risk: Scientists and analysts warn that stalling on emissions cuts risks triggering runaway climate impacts, extreme weather, and economic damages that societies cannot adapt to.
• Required Pace: To limit peak warming and bring temperatures back down, emission cuts need to accelerate rapidly—targeting roughly 4% reductions per year through 2030, 7% a year in the early 2030s, and 9% a year from 2035 to 2050.