Analysis
Starmer
needs sharper survival strategy if he is to stay on
Kiran
Stacey
Policy
editor
Tepid
cabinet support and a blunted No 10 operation are making it harder for the
prime minister to face down critics
Tue 12
May 2026 18.56 BST
The last
time Keir Starmer faced a threat to his leadership, his core team assembled in
the cabinet room and persuaded ministers to fire off a succession of supportive
tweets in an attempt to keep him in office. This time has been different.
As the
number of MPs calling for the prime minister to resign has grown over the last
48 hours, much of the cabinet has remained quiet.
And
though the prime minister remained in office on Tuesday night, some in
government were wondering whether his political operation was as sharp as it
once was, especially since the departure of Starmer’s long-term aide Morgan
McSweeney.
“How
could they not plan for this, it’s mad,” said one MP, frustrated at what they
saw as a lack of fightback from Downing Street. Another said there was
“literally no guidance or plan. I have no idea what plan it was that they think
they were preparing.”
Starmer’s
political operation is a very different one from what it was for most of his
first 20 months in office, during which the prime minister would decide the
broad direction of the government but leave much of the daily politics to
McSweeney.
When
faced with a scandal, for example, it was often McSweeney who would lead the
strategy over how to respond and, if required, make the first phone call to a
minister whom the prime minister wanted to resign.
McSweeney
resigned as chief of staff in February over his role in recommending Peter
Mandelson as ambassador in Washington.
He
remains close to Starmer and is understood to have spoken to the prime minister
in recent days about his situation. He is not providing advice to No 10
however, even behind the scenes.
Starmer
appointed Vidhya Alakeson and Jill Cuthbertson after McSweeney’s resignation,
and they led the fightback in February when the Scottish Labour leader, Anas
Sarwar, called for Starmer to resign.
Alongside
Amy Richards, the Downing Street political director, and Jonathan Reynolds, the
chief whip, they coordinated a response to Sarwar that was so swift it gave any
potential rival very little time to act.
This time
the same team has once more assembled in the cabinet room, albeit largely
without Cuthbertson, who is on maternity leave. While she came in to Downing
Street on Monday evening, sources say it was only briefly and she did not get
involved in making calls.
“They
have really missed Jill, she was the one with the connections across the Labour
party,” said one government official.
Stuart
Ingham, one of the prime minister’s longest-standing aides, and Sophie Nazemi,
his director of communications, have also pitched in.
Downing
Street officials say they have tried to use broadly the same tactics as they
employed last time to keep him in post, with phone calls across the party and
defiant messages in public.
Some have
been warning of dire consequences should the prime minister be ousted, such as
a spike in bond yields – though they have been careful not to use those
arguments too directly with Labour MPs.
“There is
a very good chance that we are heading for a Liz Truss moment in the next few
months,” said one government figure, referring to the jump in UK borrowing
costs that followed the former prime minister’s “mini-budget”.
“We can’t
say so in such terms to MPs though, as they get nervous about being made to
feel like they are being held hostage.”
To an
extent, Starmer’s aides have been helped by the fact that MPs are still in
their constituencies after the local elections, and do not return to
Westminster until Wednesday.
While
their absence has made it more difficult to coordinate the prime minister’s
defence, it has also prevented the same level of collaboration among his
opponents.
For some
MPs, the outreach has worked.
On
Tuesday more than 100 Labour MPs, including the former minister Tulip Siddiq,
Carolyn Harris and Perran Moon, signed a letter insisting: “This is no time for
a leadership contest.”
The
letter was coordinated by backbenchers and some parliamentary ministerial
aides. Organisers say it did not come from No 10, though MPs said it had been
circulated by government whips.
Starmer
himself made his message clear at cabinet – it was time to trigger a leadership
contest or stand down.
In words
that in effect dared the health secretary, Wes Streeting, to move against him,
the prime minister said: “The past 48 hours have been destabilising for
government and that has a real economic cost for our country and for families.
“The
Labour party has a process for challenging a leader and that has not been
triggered.”
Sources
told the Guardian that Starmer did not give cabinet critics time to respond,
before moving the conversation on to the Middle East.
They
added that he did not have one-on-one meetings before or after cabinet, apart
from with his close ally Richard Hermer. One source said Streeting had tried to
speak to the prime minister privately after, but had been rebuffed.
While
Starmer then headed to a technical college in south London for a planned
ministerial visit, his words persuaded some cabinet ministers to issue
supportive statements to reporters outside Downing Street as they left the
meeting.
Others,
however, have remained quiet, in marked contrast to February, when every
cabinet minister quickly issued public declarations of support. Streeting
himself has remained quiet in public, as have Ed Miliband, the energy
secretary, and Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary.
As the
dust began to settle on another day of political drama, Starmer’s allies were
quietly hopeful they had shored the prime minister up for another day, even if
they were wary of predicting any further into the future.
“I don’t
know what happens next,” said one. “It might be that Andy or Wes backs down
having marched their armies halfway up the hill. Or it might be that one of
them succeeds and arrives in Downing Street just as the jet fuel runs out.”
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