António Costa looks set to be reelected, dashing Manfred Weber’s hopes of reshaping the EU’s top leadership team.

 

By GABRIEL GAVIN

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/costas-win-could-be-webers-loss/

 

— António Costa looks set to be reelected, dashing Manfred Weber’s hopes of reshaping the EU’s top leadership team.

THE PLOT THAT’S NOT: European Council President António Costa — the bloc’s most powerful Socialist — is on track to win reelection in six months, seven diplomats and two officials told Playbook. And the former Portuguese prime minister’s popularity with the capitals that appoint him could scupper European People’s Party chief Manfred Weber’s ambition to cement the center-right’s control over the EU institutions.

Power games are already underway ahead of the so-called midterm reshuffle, when the presidencies of the European Council and Parliament come up for renewal early next year. The jostling, which will define who steers the bloc at a time when it faces Russia’s war, U.S. trade pressure and economic challenges, is pitting Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s coalition — which includes her EPP, the Socialists and the liberals — against itself.

Also up for reappointment is European Parliament President Roberta Metsola. The Maltese EPP politician is expected to seek a third term, despite convention dictating she hand over to a Socialist successor. Weber and Metsola’s allies have been warning center-left MEPs that any attempt to oust her would spark retaliation — including the EPP trying to boot out Costa in favor of its own candidate to maintain the balance of power.

Costa needs the green light from a majority of EU countries to secure another two and a half years at the helm of the Council. But more than a dozen governments told POLITICO that he has their backing and they expect him to be reappointed with little serious contest.

“We are quite happy,” said one envoy of Costa’s leadership. “He will make it,” said a second, praising his initiative to make EU leaders’ summits a single-day affair. Another EPP official said it would be “madness” to oust a “hardworking, respected and admired” Council president at a time of crisis. They said leaders, including those from the EPP, would be unlikely to “kill off” Costa. “Why make a leadership change unless something isn’t working? And Costa is working.” All were granted anonymity to discuss internal dynamics.

Let’s tread carefully: “Costa’s experience is an important asset for the governments in the Council. We can’t mix party politics with his function in this delicate moment for Europe,” Socialist lawmaker Brando Benifei told Playbook.

Not interested: Another blow toWeber’s plans is the fact the two most likely EPP candidates to challenge Costa have effectively ruled themselves out. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković are both running for reelection back home.

Back to Parliament: Now the EPP will see what it can offer the Socialists to back Metsola, while the Socialists plan how to strong-arm the EPP into supporting a candidate of their own. The Socialists are yet to present a candidate.

SPEAKING OF WEBER: The EPP chief is having a tough week. My colleague Max Griera and I reported that his right-hand man, Tom Vandenkendelaere, is making a sudden exit to spend more time with his family. The veteran operative and former MEP leaves a major vacuum in Weber’s top team that they may struggle to fill.