French poll
sees far-right Bardella winning, far-left Mélenchon surging in 2027 election
An Odoxa
poll indicates that far-right National Rally leader Jordan Bardella is
on track to win the 2027 French presidential election, while far-left leader Jean-Luc
Mélenchon is experiencing a significant surge that threatens mainstream
centrist candidates.
Key Poll
Insights
- First-Round Leftist Surge: Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France
Unbowed) rose to 16 percent of first-round voter intentions, up
from 12 percent the previous month. This surge places him neck and neck
with prominent center-right candidate and former Prime Minister Édouard
Philippe, who dropped to 17 percent.
- Left-Wing Consolidation: Mélenchon has established
himself as the most popular figure on the left, securing support from 49
percent of left-wing voters, placing him ahead of former President
François Hollande (43%) and MEP Raphaël Glucksmann (36%).
- The Runoff Scenario: If the election goes to a
second-round runoff, Bardella is projected to defeat Édouard Philippe in a
tight race (52% to 48%).
- The Centrist
"Nightmare": If Mélenchon’s upward momentum carries him past Philippe into the
final two-candidate runoff, polling projects a landslide victory for the
far right. Earlier testing by Odoxa suggests Bardella would comfortably
defeat Mélenchon 74 percent to 26 percent in a head-to-head
matchup.
Political
Impact
The poll
serves as a major warning for France's political center. With President
Emmanuel Macron’s popularity waning and his political allies fragmented, the
rise of Mélenchon splits the opposition to the far right. Traditionally, French
voters from both the left and right unite in a "republican front" to
block the far right in the second round. However, because Mélenchon is such a
divisive figure, a runoff between the two extremes would severely fracture that
defensive voting bloc, smoothing Bardella's path to the Élysée Palace.
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